Economists Cut Expectations for Yuan-Dollar Rate Despite Rise in Yuan Index

Economists Cut Expectations for Yuan-Dollar Rate Despite Rise in Yuan Index

Kan Mingfang & Huang Huihong

Date: Tue, 11/14/2017 - 13:41 / source:Yicai
Economists Cut Expectations for Yuan-Dollar Rate Despite Rise in Yuan Index
Economists Cut Expectations for Yuan-Dollar Rate Despite Rise in Yuan Index

(Yicai Global) Nov. 14 -- Although the yuan index rose in October, economists have cut their expectations for the yuan-dollar exchange rate for the first time in the past seven months.

The yuan’s Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) and the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), issued by CBN Research Institute, closed at 93.68 and 104.22, up 0.47 percent and 0.84 percent, respectively. The October REER set a new high since February 2016.

Both rates fluctuated throughout the year, with the NEER falling by 0.54 percent and the REER rising 1.15 percent over the 12-month period. Research shows the growth of the indexes last month was mainly driven by appreciation of the yuan against the euro and Japanese yen.

The yuan appreciated against a number of currencies in October, climbing 3.22 percent against the Canadian dollar, 2.62 percent against the Swiss franc, 2.03 percent against the Australian dollar and 1.79 percent against the pound. However, it fell 0.04 percent against the greenback and 1.93 percent against the Korean won.

The dollar index closed at 94.57 points in October, up 1.52 percent over the month.

The yuan-dollar exchange rate slid from a rise in October and is set to slip to 6.65 by the end of November and 6.68 by the end of the year, based on the economists’ forecast. It is the first time experts have cut their expectations for the yuan after increasing them six times this year.

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