PBOC Is Unlikely to Cut Rates, RRR This Month, Yicai Chief Economists Survey Shows
He Xiao
DATE:  Sep 06 2019
/ SOURCE:  yicai
PBOC Is Unlikely to Cut Rates, RRR This Month, Yicai Chief Economists Survey Shows PBOC Is Unlikely to Cut Rates, RRR This Month, Yicai Chief Economists Survey Shows

(Yicai Global) Sept. 5 -- China's central bank is unlikely to lower its benchmark lending and deposit interest rates nor cut the reserve requirement ratio this month despite uncertainties in the global economy and slowing growth, according to the findings of the latest Yicai Chief Economists Survey.

Just one of the 21 top economists at major Chinese financial institutions contacted by Yicai Global for its monthly survey expects lending rates to be cut this month, and only two believe that the People's Bank of China will adjust deposit interest rates. They all forecast that the cash reserve ratio will remain the same.

The survey was conducted before the cabinet decided in a meeting yesterday to use broad and targeted cuts in the reserve requirement ratio "in a timely manner," according to a statement posted on the government's website. The RRR is the portion of cash lenders are required to keep in reserve. Any reduction in the ratio frees up money for lending to businesses and individuals.

Last month, the PBOC introduced a new loan prime rate figure intended to increase the role of market forces in helping lenders set their loan interest rates and in this way cut borrowing costs for smaller firms.

The new LPR mechanism will lead to a drop in lending rates and will help the long-run development of the real economy, the surveyed economists all said.

The consumer price index and the producer price index for August will be lower than in July, according to the survey. July's CPI rose 2.8 percent, but the average prediction for last month was 2.6 percent, with the economists forecasting in a  range between 2.4 percent and 3 percent.

They estimate that August's PPI will fall between -1 percent and -0.3 percent from the same period last year, with an average of -0.79 percent, below July's -0.3 percent.

A surge in the price of pork over the past month has driven food prices up, but the CPI will only drop slightly due to last year's high base number, said Jiang Chao, chief economist at Haitong Securities. He predicted the PPI decline will be greater than last year because of falling coal, steel and refined oil prices.

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Keywords:   PBOC,Yicai Chief Economists Survey,Reserve Requirement Ratio,LPR