(Yicai Global) Aug. 6 -- Recent spikes in the price of pork will not lead to market inflation expectations, according to the chief research officer at agricultural data provider Bric Group.

The price is being affected by both internal and external factors, but it is still lower than the same period last year so should not spark concern, Lin Guofa told Yicai Global. Pork forms an important part of China's consumer price index and the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry causes unpredictable supply and demand, which leads to drastic fluctuations in prices, Lin said.

Wholesale pork prices had leapt 4.2 percent on the month to CNY16.63 (USD2.4) a kilo as of the end of June, per data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Despite the climb, the figure was down 16.6 percent on the year and 20.6 percent from January.

Recent price hikes are largely down to a short supply of big pigs, which is being accelerated by breeders who are willing to hold onto their hogs until prices rise further, Lin added. The shortage began in winter when survival rates of new-born piglets, which would be fit for sale now, fell significantly, he said.

Official data also shows that in May, national stocks of living swine were down 1.9 percent from April and 2 percent on the year. Overall capacity was still high, the ministry said, adding that the average number of piglets birthed by a sow has risen to more than 20 from 15 three years ago.

Looking Ahead

Pork prices will trend downward through this year with little volatility, Tang Ke, director-general of the agricultural ministry's department of market and economic information, said at a recent press conference. There may be slight rises when consumption peaks in late September and early October, he added.

Prices up north may also struggle after an outbreak of African swine fever in Shenyang, Liaoning province, earlier this month, Lin said. Authorities in the northeast city have culled around 1,000 swine in order to prevent the epidemic from spreading and have stopped pigs being transported into or out of the area.

China's decision to hike duty on imported pork from the United States may also have some impact on the market, but mostly sentimental with little tangible effects, he added, saying American meat makes up a small portion of all pork consumed in China.

Editor: James Boynton