China Needs Long-Term Incomes Boost, Not Just Helicopter Money, Experts Say
(Yicai Global) Dec. 22 -- China could use some more long-term consumption stimulus, experts said after more than 30 Chinese cities, including Chengdu, Chongqing, and Nanjing, issued vouchers to drive consumer spending after the Covid-19 pandemic.
The latest moves may only be useful in the short run, three insiders said to Yicai Global.
Releasing consumption vouchers is effective in solving short-term problems but promoting consumption in the long run requires raising income levels and fundamentally improving productivity, said Liu Zhibiao, a professor at Nanjing University Business School.
Moreover, local government finances are currently under pressure, so the governments need to cut spending and advance their own reforms, Liu added.
Multiple cities have joined the club of pandemic-era shopping promoters. Eastern China's Hefei has recently issued CNY40 million (USD6.3 million) worth of consumer vouchers to be used in restaurants, shopping malls, supermarkets, and car stores.
Sichuan province's Chengdu released CNY2 million (USD313,908) worth of cultural and travel coupons. Gansu province’s city of Zhangye said it will issue a total of CNY10 million online vouchers for cars, home appliances, daily necessities, and catering this month and the next.
But experts remain skeptical. These types of vouchers are actually the government’s transfer payment to residents, said Yang Chang, chief analyst at Zhongtai Securities Research Institute. They can boost sales to some extent while having a limited effect on increasing residents' disposable income, Yang added.
The issuances can restore market confidence after the epidemic, encourage consumers to go out of their homes, and promote the recovery of the real economy but the marginal effect will diminish, said Ou Jianling, secretary-general of the Chengdu Retail Business Association. It is not practical to sustain the mechanism for a long time, Ou added.
Editor: Emmi Laine, Xiao Yi
