(Yicai) Jan. 20 -- Opportunities for the Chinese economy will outweigh challenges this year, laying solid foundations and robust support for the economy to maintain its steady recovery momentum, according to the commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics.

2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, positioning China’s development at a new starting point, Kang Yi said at a press conference yesterday. Despite impacts from changes in the external environment and challenges to domestic development, the Chinese economy boasts sound fundamentals, distinct advantages, strong resilience, and enormous potential, he noted, adding that the underlying conditions and long-term positive trend supporting growth remain unchanged.

China’s gross domestic product rose 5 percent to a record CNY140.2 trillion (USD20.1 trillion) in 2025, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday. The government set an annual growth target of “around 5 percent” early last year.

Looking ahead to 2026, multiple positive factors will continue to underpin consumption growth despite mounting pressure and challenges, and the consumer market will maintain steady expansion, Kang pointed out. This year, China will further implement special campaigns to boost consumption and formulate and roll out income-increase plans for urban and rural residents, he added.

The trade-in policy will be further optimized this year, as an initial tranche of CNY625 billion (USD89.8 billion) in ultra-long special treasury bonds has already been allocated in advance, and efforts to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector are advancing steadily, according to Kang. The implementation of these policies will provide strong support for consumption growth.

Moreover, the development of a unified national market will help optimize the consumption environment, and the application of new technologies and scientific innovations will increase the supply of high-quality consumer goods, facilitating the unleashing of greater consumption potential, Kang said.

China’s economy grew 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, 4.8 percent in the third quarter, 5.2 percent in the second quarter, and 5.4 percent in the first quarter.

After registering a relatively fast growth in the first half of last year, the Chinese economy shifted its focus to high-quality adjustments in the second half, said Zhang Di, chief macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities. Key features included the recovery of price levels and a moderate easing of excessive competition pressures.

In the fourth quarter, China’s economic structure continued the trajectory seen in the third quarter, as rising prices drove the rebound of nominal GDP growth, and exports and industrial production maintained resilience, while consumption and investment declined, Zhang noted.

China’s retail sales of consumer goods topped CNY50 trillion (USD7.2 trillion) last year, up 3.7 percent from the year before, compared with a 3.5 percent growth in 2024, according to data from the NBS. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52 percent to the GDP growth, up from 47 percent the previous year, emerging as the primary driver and stabilizer of economic expansion.

Last year, China’s value-added industrial output rose 5.8 percent to CNY41.7 trillion from 2024, accelerating from 5.5 percent in 2024, data from the NBS also showed. Its contribution to the GDP growth rose to 35 percent from 33.2 percent.

In the next phase, China will promote the in-depth integration of technological and industrial innovation, optimize its industrial structure, accelerate the cultivation of new quality productive forces, and drive the sound development of the industrial economy, said Fu Linghui, spokesperson and chief economist at the NBS.

As exports are expected to grow more slowly this year, their pulling effect on manufacturing will weaken, said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating International. Nevertheless, policymakers will intensify measures to boost consumption and promote the stabilization and recovery of investment, which will provide crucial support for industrial production, he added.

China’s value-added industrial output will expand around 4.9 percent this year from last year, a decline of about 1 percentage point from 2025, Wang predicted.

Editor: Futura Costaglione