Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index Hits Six-Month High in February(Yicai Global) Feb. 16 -- Confidence in China’s economy is at the highest in six months, according to chief economists polled by Yicai Global, amid ongoing government measures to support the economy.
The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index rose to 52.3 this month, in positive territory for a third straight month and the highest since last August, according to the findings of a survey of 20 leading economists in China. The figure was 50.3 in January and just over 50 in December.
Twelve of the economists polled gave a score of above 50 for this month, with the highest mark of 66 made by Shen Jianguang, chief economist at JD Technology.
China has been adjusting its economic policy recently to ensure stable and healthy growth, Shen said. Next, the country will enhance coordination between monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies, strengthen the combination of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical regulation, improve demand-side management, and consider issuing consumption vouchers to stimulate demand, he added.
The economists surveyed expect the consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, to have risen 1 percent in January, a 0.5 percentage point deceleration from December. The producer price index, which measures factory gate prices, is forecast to have soared 9.5 percent last month, a 0.8 point slowdown from December.
New yuan-denominated loans soared to an all-time high of CNY3.98 trillion (USD625.7 billion) in January, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Feb. 10, beating market expectations for about CNY3.7 trillion and CNY394.4 billion (USD62 billion) more than a year earlier. New social financing, or the amount of money the financial system provided to firms and households, also topped expectations, increasing CNY984.2 billion to CNY6.17 trillion.
M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rose 9.8 percent in the steepest rise since last February.
The annual meetings of China’s national legislature and top political advisory body will kick off in Beijing early next month. During the so-called Two Sessions, the government will announce this year’s target for gross domestic product growth, which will not be lower than 5 percent, according to the chief economists.
The target must be adjusted to the current economic situation and potential growth rate, said Ding Anhua, chief economist at China Merchants Bank. A too ambitious target is likely to result in excessively loose policies that can distort the behavior of market players, he added, noting that China may set a bottom-line goal of 5 percent.
Editors: Dou Shicong, Futura Costaglione
