economic observation network reporter Cai yuekun the half-year performance forecast of head photovoltaic module manufacturers has been fully released. the increase in module shipments and the price reduction of silicon materials brought about by strong demand have made the half-year performance of head module enterprises bright.

on the evening of August 2, longji green energy (601012.SH) released its 2023 semi-annual performance bulletin. the company realized a total operating income of 64.664 billion yuan in 2023, up 28.26 percent from the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.179 billion yuan, up 41.63 percent from the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 9.06 billion yuan, up 41.46 percent year on year. Basic earnings per share, year-on-year growth of 40.70 percent.

On August 3, the stock price of Longji shares rose sharply at the opening. As of press time, the stock price was 30.7 yuan per share, an increase of more than 5%, and the total market value exceeded 230 billion yuan.

Photovoltaic module manufacturers have bright performance

so far, the head of the PV module manufacturers half-year earnings forecast has been released and are profitable.

in the first half of the year, jingao technology (002459.SZ) is expected to realize a net profit of 4.2 billion -4.9 billion yuan, up 146.81-187.95 year on year. Jingke Energy (688223.SH) is expected to realize a net profit of 3.66 billion -4.06 billion yuan, up 304.38-348.58 year on year. Tianhe Solar (688599.SH) is expected to realize a net profit of 3.328 billion -3.752 billion yuan, up 162.14-195.61 year.

regarding performance growth, Longji green energy explained that during the reporting period, the global photovoltaic market demand maintained rapid growth, and the company continued to give full play to its industry-leading technology, cost, product and brand advantages, optimized the integrated layout of the global industrial chain, promoted the steady release of efficient production capacity, and significantly increased shipments of silicon wafers and components compared with the same period last year. With the decline in upstream polysilicon prices, the gross profit margin of the company's component products was repaired year, superimposed on the contribution of investment income and exchange income growth, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased significantly during the reporting period.

Coincidentally, the reporter noticed that for the explanation of the substantial increase in performance, Jingao Technology, JinkoSolar and Trina Solar all mentioned in the announcement that the global market demand for photovoltaic products continued to improve, and the shipments of silicon wafers and modules increased significantly. Secondly, the decline in the price of upstream polysilicon is also one of the important reasons for the company's performance growth.

On August 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the operation of the national photovoltaic manufacturing industry in the first half of 2023. In the first half of 2023, China's photovoltaic industry as a whole maintained a steady and positive development trend, and the output of the main links of the industrial chain achieved rapid growth. According to the photovoltaic industry standard announcement enterprise information and industry association estimates, the national output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of more than 65%. The total export volume of photovoltaic products reached 28.92 billion billion US dollars, up 11.6 percent year on year.

Specifically, the first half of 2023 domestic PV installed demand increased. The National Energy Administration released statistics on the national power industry from January to June. Among them, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic from January to June was 78.42GW, up 153.95 percent year-on-year. In June, the new installed capacity was 17.21GW, up 140.03 percent year-on-year.

As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 2.708 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 10.8 percent. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 0.471 billion kilowatts, up 39.80 percent year on year. From January to June, solar power generation was 658 hours, 32 hours less than the same period last year; the investment in solar power generation was 134.9 billion billion yuan, an increase of 113.6 percent over the same period last year.

Dongguan Securities Research Report pointed out that with the sharp drop in the price of the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of all links have gradually stabilized, stimulating the installation of domestic centralized power stations in the second quarter of this year to accelerate significantly compared with the first quarter. The first batch of domestic wind power photovoltaic base projects have been fully started, and it is planned to be completed and connected to the grid by the end of this year. The proportion of new centralized photovoltaic installations in the first half of this year has risen to 48%, 11%, the proportion of new installations is expected to increase further throughout the year.

head enterprises have expanded production to seize share

Since the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry set off a wave of production expansion, the industry head enterprises have invested tens of billions of plus code integrated production capacity.

Longji related people have told reporters, "Longji has always insisted on not leading the expansion of production". In the view of a head photovoltaic enterprise, the expansion of production by head enterprises is more strategic foresight and confidence in leading technology, because the time from investment expansion to project mass production may be the outbreak period and new period after the reshuffle of the industry.

regarding the contribution of advanced production capacity to performance, TRW pointed out in its semi-annual performance forecast that during the reporting period, thanks to the substantial increase in the company's advanced production capacity, the sales proportion of high-power 210 series photovoltaic products increased significantly compared with the same period last year. Benefiting from the gradual release of the company's upstream silicon wafer production capacity, the comprehensive cost of the product has further decreased. At the same time, the company's early strategic layout in the photovoltaic industry chain gradually reflected the results during the reporting period.

At present, as efficient component technology continues to mature, head component companies continue to expand production, with cost, brand and channel advantages to rapidly increase market share. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, the total output of China's top five photovoltaic modules accounted for 63.4 percent in 2021, an increase of 8.3 percentage points from 2020. In 2022, the total output of the top five enterprises accounted for 61.4 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year.

judging from the ranking of enterprise shipments, according to statistics, the top five manufacturers in 2022 are longji green energy, jingke energy, trina solar energy, jingao technology and arcs solar energy (NASDAQ:CSIQ). the top five enterprise shipments are 46.76GW, 44.33GW, 43.09GW, 39.75GW and 21.1GW respectively, the top four account for about 60%-65% of the global share.

People in the photovoltaic industry said that companies hope to seize the market through technological leadership. In the market environment of increased competition in the industry, the head companies compete for the ability to continue to be present and the ability to lead the technology. In the era of overcapacity, the head enterprises are generally relatively advanced in technology. As the cycle lengthens, some small enterprises will be eliminated. After the baptism of the industry, the enterprise will have a winner-take-all situation.