event

baike biological shares released the 2023 semi-annual report performance announcement: in the first half of 2023, operating income was 0.5596 billion yuan, up 26.93 percent year-on-year; Net profit attributable to parent was 0.1114 billion yuan, up 51.39 percent year-on-year. Net profit after deducting non-profit and returning to parent was 0.1064 billion yuan, up 49.05 percent year-on-year. Basic earnings per share were 0.27 yuan/share, up 50%.

key points of investment

herpes zoster vaccine injects new vitality

Q2 in 2023, realizing operating income of 0.38 billion yuan, up 25.44 year on year and 111.90 month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent was 0.093 billion yuan, up 65.32 year on year and 405.97 month on month. The main reason is that the company obtained the drug registration certificate for herpes zoster vaccine in early 2023. It was approved and issued for the first time in April, contributing to the main increase of Q2. As of August 20, 2023, 15 batches of 100 grams of biological herpes zoster vaccine were approved and issued, with an estimated total of about 45-600000 vaccines. The company has actively promoted the access and sales of the vaccine in various places. At present, it has completed the bidding access in more than 20 provinces and gradually realized sales, with a certain increase in revenue.

mRNA technology platform, the future can be expected

The company relies on four technology platforms: "large-scale virus culture technology platform", "preparation and adjuvant technology platform", "Genetic Engineering Technology Platform" and "Bacterial Vaccine Technology Platform" successively hatched Vero cell rabies vaccine, live attenuated varicella vaccine, freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine and live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine and were successfully approved. Among them, freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine is the exclusive dosage form in China, and herpes zoster vaccine is the first domestic variety, It is the first herpes zoster vaccine for people aged 40 and above in China. In the first half of the year, the company signed an investment agreement with Chuanxin Bio, which accelerated the construction of the company's "mRNA vaccine technology platform. Messenger Creatures will contract with Acuitas in 2021 to license Messenger Creatures to use its LNP delivery technology through a non-exclusive license. The delivery system has been clinically validated, this investment to help the company build mRNA platform technology and expand applications, promote the company to achieve product and technology diversification, and further enhance the company's research and development strength and sustainable development capabilities.

profit forecast

we predict that the company's 2023E-2025E annual income will be 18.00 yuan, 23.20 yuan and 2.951 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent will be 3.70 yuan, 5.82 yuan and 0.815 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 0.90 yuan, 1.41 yuan and 1.97 yuan respectively, and the current stock price will correspond to PE of 55.7, 35.4 and 25.3 times respectively. considering herpes zoster is still in the market development stage, the market competition pattern is good and is covered for the first time, give a "buy" investment rating.

Risk Tips

Policy risks, vaccine sales are less than expected, vaccine competition is intensified, and research and development is less than expected.