Economic Observer reporter Cai Yuekun Recently, as the "crown jewel" of the semiconductor industry, the concept stocks in the domestic lithography industry chain have attracted unprecedented attention from investors in the secondary market.

Because of this, the share prices of A- share "lithography machine" concept stocks have been one after another, and related listed companies have frequently received capital attention. On September 21, flexible packaging composite adhesive leader Gaomeng New Material (300200.SZ) rose 16.19 percent, once 20CM trading.

gaomeng new materials said on the investor interaction platform on September 14 that the company's business did not involve lithography machines, but the company invested in photoresist project companies. among them, the company's participation in Beijing kehua microelectronics materials co., ltd. was 3.67, Beijing dingcai technology co., ltd. was 1.39, and Beijing kehua was the head enterprise in the domestic semiconductor photoresist field, beijing Dingcai is an excellent enterprise in the field of OLED luminescent materials and panel display photoresist.

According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, investors in the interactive easy platform to ask the relevant listed companies lithography-related business dynamics as high as hundreds, lithography market dynamics affect the nerves of the capital market.

for the lithography machine market, avic securities pointed out that the semiconductor industry has doubled in ten years, fabs have actively expanded production, superimposed chip performance has been upgraded, and lithography intensity has increased. it is estimated that the lithography expenditure of 5nm logic chips will account for 35%. the importance of lithography process is becoming more and more prominent, and the market scale is growing rapidly. it is expected to reach 23 billion us dollars in 2024. ASML (Dutch lithography machine giant) is the only in the high-end market. In 2022, Chinese mainland lithography machine imports of about 4 billion U.S. dollars, mainly from Japan, the Netherlands, export control under the lithography machine there is a hidden concern, independent control is imperative.

The concept of lithography machine is popular

by Huawei's launch of new mobile phone products and other news, lithography machine concept stocks have attracted investors' attention.

Wind Lithography Index consists of 21 listed companies. As of September 22, the top 10 companies in market value include: Zhangjiang Gaoke (600895.SH), Jacques Technology (002409.SZ), Tongcheng Xincai (603650.SH), Nanda Optoelectronics (300346.SZ), Rongda Photosensitive (300576.SZ), Fujing Technology (0022S22.300S).

From the perspective of the 2023 interim results, as of September 22, the average income of the main business of the listed companies in the Wind Lithography Index was 0.906 billion yuan, and the average profit of the main business was 0.1156 billion yuan.

in addition, the data show that since August 29, the lithography concept index began to rise strongly, after 10 trading days rose nearly 30%, of which on September 5 alone, the lithography index pulled more than 9%. Since September 18, the lithography concept index has gradually retreated.

from the beginning of 2023 to September 22, the share prices of Rongda photosensitive and blue ying equipment rose by more than 100. Tengjing Technology (688195.SH), Guangxin Materials (300537.SZ), Yangfan New Materials (300637.SZ), Fujing Technology (002222.SZ) and Zhangjiang Gaoke (600895.SH) rose more than 50%.

lithography concept stocks were fired, but also caused the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to send a letter of concern.

Public trading information shows that from September 5 to September 13, the stock price of Lanying Equipment has risen by more than 100 in just 7 trading days. On September 12, Lanying Equipment received a letter of concern from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

In the meantime, Lanying Equipment issued two announcements of abnormal stock price fluctuations on September 7 and September 11, saying that it had not found that the recent public media reports may or have had a greater impact on the company's stock trading price. Information; the company's operating conditions and internal and external operating environment have not undergone major changes; the company, controlling shareholders and actual controllers have no major issues that should be disclosed but not disclosed about the company, or major issues in the planning stage.

On September 20, "Lithography Machine Concept" Lanying Equipment (300293.SZ) responded to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's concern letter, stating that the company is not directly involved in the production and manufacturing of its related equipment. In the entire value chain of the manufacturing of the relevant customer's equipment, the company's related equipment accounts for a relatively small percentage of the value of the relevant customer's equipment products compared to the value of the relevant customer's equipment products.

It is worth noting that Lan Ying's equipment did not mention the word "lithography machine" in its reply to the announcement. It only stated in the announcement that the company provides corresponding cleaning equipment and solutions according to the cleanliness and precision requirements of relevant users for its equipment-related parts.

Oligopoly

It is reported that the lithography machine is the core equipment of the lithography process, which is mainly composed of an optical system, a mechanical system and a control system. Lithography is the core link of chip manufacturing, therefore, the development of domestic lithography machine is also much concerned by investors.

According to Everbright Securities Research, the global lithography market is dominated by the Netherlands's ASML, Japan's Nikon (Nikon) and Canon (Canon). At present, the lithography machine on the market is mainly divided into g-line, i-line, KrF, ArF, EUV five-generation iterative update.

the shipments of lithography machines of the three enterprises increased from 281 units in 2015 to 551 units in 2022, with a CAGR of 10.10 percent. Sales revenue increased from 94.5 billion yuan in 2019 to 131.8 billion yuan in 2022, and CAGR (compound annual growth rate) reached 11.73 percent. Among them, ASML occupies an absolute leading position and monopolizes the high-end EUV market.

Among them, Canon occupies a dominant position in the low-end lithography machine market, mainly concentrated in the i-line lithography machine; Nikon has a wide coverage of lithography machine product types, in addition to EUV types are involved, among which ArF and i-line lithography machine fields are more prominent, but in terms of shipments far less than ASML and Canon.

Specifically, data from the China Airlines Securities Research Institute show that from the early years of the U.S. GCA + PerkinElmer control, to now only the Netherlands ASML + Japan Nikon/Canon, the U.S. lithography enterprises out of the historical stage. After the entry of Shanghai Microelectronics mainly in the packaging link, the former lithography machine small batch shipment. Currently, the market share of lithography machines is highly concentrated, with ASML accounting for more than 80% of the global market.

The success of immersion and the leap of EUV have made ASML almost monopolize the high-end market. Global only ASML can produce high-end EUV, immersion DUV is only ASML and Nikon shipments, ASML shipments in 2022 accounted for 95%, in ArF and KrF lithography machine share is as high as 88%/72%. On the low-end I-line lithography machine, Canon shipments are relatively high.

In contrast, the gap between the development of domestic lithography machines and the international advanced level is still large.

Everbright Securities Research Report pointed out that Shanghai Microelectronics is the fastest-growing manufacturer of lithography machines in mainland China, and its self-developed 600 series lithography machines can mass-produce 90nm process chips. However, at the technical level, the gap between Shanghai Microelectronics's IC front lithography machine and the international advanced level is still large. Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. has mass-produced lithography machine with the best performance of up to 90nm process node, ASML EUV3400B process node can reach 5nm. This also makes the IC front lithography market, the localization rate is low, the domestic IC front lithography market is mainly divided by ASML, Nikon and Canon.

Domestic needs to break through

As one of the important equipment in the field of chip manufacturing, the dynamic progress of lithography has attracted special attention.

It is reported that the domestic lithography machine industry chain mainly includes upstream equipment and supporting materials, midstream lithography machine system integration and production and downstream lithography machine application three major links. Everbright Securities Research Report combing pointed out that, among them, lithography components upstream domestic representative enterprises include Fujing Technology, Guowang Optics, Sai Microelectronics, Keyi Hongyuan, Guoke Precision, Juguang Technology, Optoelectronics, etc.

Recently, a number of A- share listed companies have introduced their layout in the field of lithography or semiconductors on platforms such as Interactive Easy.

on September 18, juguang technology (688167.SH) said in response to investors' questions about the supply of products for lithography machines that the company has been providing the core laser optical component of lithography machine exposure system-light field homogenizer for semiconductor lithography applications for many years, which is supplied to company a, the world's top optical enterprise, and finally applied to the core equipment of global high-end lithography machine manufacturers. In recent years, light field homogenizer products have also been used in major domestic lithography machine research and development projects.

on September 15, big family laser (002008.SZ) said in an interactive response to investors' questions that the company's lithography machine project is mainly used in the field of discrete devices with a resolution of 3-5μm; Among them, the proximity lithography machine has been put into the market, and the step-by-step lithography machine has started user optimization. the company will continue to formulate research and development plans according to market demand and business development, and increase the localization of research and development core components.

on September 14, core chess micro-installation (688630.SH) also said that it would continue to carry out research and development innovation and product iteration around its own technical advantages and in combination with the development trend of the industry to meet the needs of domestic and foreign customers for direct writing lithography equipment. The company's 130-90nm wafer plate lithography equipment development and industrialization project has been accepted in the first half of 2022, can achieve a minimum line width of 350nm, CD uniformity of 10%, production capacity of 120min/piece, equipment performance is excellent.

China Airlines Securities judgment, lithography machine as a high barrier, heavy capital, high-risk industry, its development will be with the help of the "national system" force, focusing on the research progress of Shanghai microelectronics and several compound, as well as its holding/equity assets, or the expected injection of lithography machine results.

lithography machine industrialization is approaching, parts investment first, China Airlines Securities estimates that the domestic parts market space of about 15 billion yuan, the market space is large, the technical key is strong.