For the domestic photovoltaic industry, the past September was not calm.

At the beginning of the month, photovoltaic giant Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) suddenly publicly stated that BC (back contact) batteries are the absolute mainstream in the next 5 to 6 years. This will not be popular BC technology to the front, and impact the industry has been arguing about "whether TOPCon or HJT for the next few years of N-type technology mainstream" inherent discussion.

since November 2021, when Japan energy officially launched TOPCon module products to kick off the mass production of the technology, although the industry generally believes that TOPCon, HJT and BC will all promote the iteration of photovoltaic cell technology to n-type when the dividend of p-type technology gradually disappears, few people will call BC technology "absolute" when discussing who is the mainstream technology in the future ".

Based on Longji Green Energy's current position in the industry, its support for BC technology is bound to trigger a new round of waves.

of course, as a supporter of TOPCon technology, jingke energy (688223.SH) is not weak. In response to the argument of the technology dispute, the company announced its firm investment in TOPCon technology at the commencement ceremony of Shanxi's "56GW N-type vertical integration large base project" held before the festival.

however, in the storm of the future photovoltaic cell technology dispute dominated by Longji green energy and jingke energy, the industrialization of HJT, perovskite and other photovoltaic cell technologies has also increased the suspense of who will be the main track in the future.

In fact, the essence of the technical route battle is the battle for market share. Judging from the current industrialization progress of various technical routes, the "poetry and distance" of photovoltaic cells may still be "a hundred flowers blooming".

Image source: Visual China

BC Tech "Tapping" TOPCon Tech

One stone stirs up waves.

since Longji green energy officials announced in September that they would focus on BC technology, discussions in the industry on whether it can compete with TOPCon have not stopped.

The debate about who is the next generation of photovoltaic cell mainstream technology will begin from the end of 2021. During this period, Longji Green Energy has been playing the role of a low-key player. Even for TOPCon and HJT, the two major technologies that have already formed the focus before, the company has never indicated which side to bet on, and more statements are "all have reserves".

but in fact, longji green energy's attention to BC technology is not without trace. In November 2022, the company announced a new component product, using HPBC technology. And in May this year, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Green Energy, said in an interview with a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald during the SNEC exhibition that the next generation of technology will still be a composite technology. "From the current trend, on the ground power station, N-type TOPCon will become the main technical direction in the next two to three years. On the distributed power station, the back-connected battery, that is, BC battery technology, will dominate this market."

if his clock baoshen's point of view is still slightly restrained, then a few months later, his latest point of view at the longji green energy performance exchange meeting can be said to directly "ignite" the war: "regarding TOPCon technology, we still insist on the view that it is a transitional product"; "(TOPCon technology) or there is a phenomenon of surplus without making money"; "In the next 5 to 6 years, BC batteries will be the absolute mainstream of crystalline silicon batteries, including double-sided and single-sided batteries. Now the development direction of the technical route is pointing to BC batteries".

it is undeniable that even though Aixu (600732.SH), the leader of photovoltaic cells, has been a loyal fan of BC technology and has firmly promoted the commercialization of the technology, BC technology has been regarded as a "niche route" until Longji Green Energy made its statement ". The reason for this is that its capacity is far smaller than that of TOPCon and HJT.

Especially TOPCon's capacity, in the past two years, the technology has become the preferred choice for both head companies and cross-border companies to quickly deploy N-type capacity. According to agency statistics, only the planned production capacity of N-type TOPCon has exceeded 1000GW. By the end of 2023, the nominal capacity of N-type TOPCon batteries will exceed 400GW. Head integration enterprises are a strong driver of TOPCon's capacity increase. By the end of 2023, the total capacity of Jingke Energy, Trina Solar (688599.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), Artes (688472.SH) and Longji Green Energy TOPCon will exceed 300GW.

Compared with TOPCon's huge camp, BC technology is indeed a "niche force". According to incomplete statistics by 21st century business herald reporters, companies that have publicly stated BC technology reserves include Longji Green Energy, Aixu Stock, Yellow River Hydropower, Tongwei Stock (600438.SH), TCL Central (002129.SZ), Trina Solar Energy, Junda Stock (002865.SZ), Jingao Technology and Hengdian Dongzhi (002506.SZ). But in fact, there are not many companies that have formed large-scale production capacity or capacity planning, mainly Longji Green Energy and Aixu shares, the two companies total about 55GW.

It is not difficult to see that BC technology is not even as good as HJT technology in terms of capacity scale. 21st Century Business Herald reporter statistics found that more than 40 companies, represented by Huasheng New Energy, Oriental Sunrise (300118.SZ), Mingyang Intelligence (601615.SH), Baoxin Technology (002514.SZ), etc., have laid out HJT production lines with a planned production capacity of more than 600GW. In addition, SMM estimates that domestic HJT nominal capacity will exceed 66GW by the end of 2023.

The disadvantage of capacity scale is one of the reasons for questioning the view that "BC technology will become the absolute mainstream. But correspondingly, the excessive growth of TOPCon's production capacity is also the reason why the BC camp cannot see the value of its investment. "About 400 to 500GW of production capacity will be invested in the market next year. At present, TOPCon's return on investment is still lagging behind PERC. With such a large amount of production capacity invested, if it enters a relatively surplus state soon, the pressure to realize the return on investment will be very great." Zhong Baoshen think.

"From the perspective of the first principle of photovoltaics, that is, the cost of electricity, BC has more advantages than any current technology. There is no doubt about this." Chen Gang, chairman of Aixu Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters from 21st century business herald recently that in September this year, the material cost of ABC battery of Aixu Co., Ltd. has basically reached the same level as that of TOPCon components. As the technology continues to mature, the material cost will become lower and lower.

However, the TOPCon camp also responded. "We firmly believe that TOPCon will remain the mainstream route in the past one or two years, now, and the next three to five years." Jinke Energy CTO Jin Hao put forward three reasons at a recent public exchange meeting: first, including TOPCon and BC, the efficiency ceiling of its single crystal structure can exceed 28%; Second, who can be industrialized at low cost? In terms of cost, TOPCon still has an absolute leading advantage in the past, present and next three to five years. Third, TOPCon (mass production equipment) is relatively difficult to achieve, BC is not only high cost, but also more difficult to achieve.

Lin Jianwei, president of Zhonglai shares (300393.SZ), said in an interview with the media in September, "BC technology is a good technology, but the prediction that it can replace TOPCon as the absolute mainstream within 5 to 6 years is somewhat too optimistic. Although BC components have made some breakthroughs in efficiency and have certain advantages over TOPCon and HJT in terms of product aesthetics, a series of problems it faces in terms of double-sided rate and technical patents have yet to be solved."

it is worth mentioning that in a recent research activity, jingke energy also responded from the side to the market's doubts about the excess caused by the excessive growth of TOPCon's production capacity. "judging from the current bidding process and volume of the market, the market share of TOPCon has increased rapidly, but it still requires a large number of technology accumulation and climbing cycles for production capacity and effective production capacity to reach production."

"Poetry and Distance" of Photovoltaic Cell Technology

Longji Green Energy supports BC technology, making the previous competition between TOPCon and HJT for who is the mainstream, which has evolved into a "Three Kingdoms Kill".

Of course, the future technologies of photovoltaic cells currently under discussion are not limited to TOPCon, HJT and BC. In addition to crystalline silicon cells, perovskite technology is also being pursued by the industry. Even the combination with this technology is regarded as a new breakthrough in the future by HJT ecosystem-on September 22, Maiwei shares (300751.SZ) said in a roadshow, "the company believes that heterojunction and perovskite laminated batteries are the main track for future industry development. Heterojunction has a good match with perovskite cells: heterojunction as a bottom cell can give full play to its advantages of high opening pressure; Most heterojunction coating equipment and low-temperature slurry can be used on heterojunction perovskite stacks; The existing world records and related research are based on heterojunctions as bottom cells."

Accelerating the industrialization process is currently the first consideration by the main photovoltaic cell technology camp, which is far more important than the "public opinion war.

take HJT as an example. when the technology and TOPCon route form a "counterattack" trend in 2022, the speed of its cost reduction is the main reason why the large-scale layout of this technology is not as good as TOPCon. However, in the recent "HJT stack technology summit", HJT to reduce the speed of the good news came.

Mingyang Intelligence, Dongfang Risheng, Huasheng New Energy, Jinneng Technology and other heterojunction enterprises said in an interview with reporters from 21st century business herald that the industrialization progress of HJT technology this year has met industry expectations in terms of silver reduction, gate reduction, thinning and efficiency enhancement.

It is worth mentioning that although TOPCon, HJT and BC technology are constantly debated, technology and technology are not "incompatible".

Taking BC technology as an example, JinkoSolar still gives its value as a platform technology when it denies the idea that it will become the absolute mainstream. "BC is a platform-based product. TBC based on TOPCon, we found that its application to equipment is highly consistent with BC on the new technical route." Jin Hao thinks.

21st century business herald reporters noted that as a member of the TOPCon camp, Junda shares (002865.SZ) recognized that "multiple BC technologies may become a trend in parallel".

in an investor exchange activity in September, junda shares believed that "BC, as a platform technology, has no exclusivity. BC batteries include IBC, TBC, PBC, HPBC, etc. TOPCon is TBC after process optimization and upgrading for single-sided market. the combination of HJT technology and BC is HBC, but they are all n-type technologies."

The company further stated that "its TBC products, which have been optimized and upgraded on the basis of TOPCon, have completed the research on the experimental line. In addition, the company ChuzhouThe factory building of Huai'an base has reserved upgrading space, and the TOPCon production line can be upgraded to TBC production line in the future."

Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, corrected the misunderstanding of the industry's discussion on new photovoltaic technologies in a live broadcast in September. He believes that BC technology is an advanced version of PERC, TOPCon, HJT and even behind the stack. "What is the advanced version? It is not that PERC's BC battery is higher than TOPCon. But PERC's BC battery technology should be higher than PERC. TOPCon's BC technology, TBC technology should be higher than TOPCon, is Pro version. HJT's HBC battery technology is higher than HJT. They are relatively comparable, but they are not comparable to each other because they are completely different technical routes."

In Shen Wenzhong's view, the future technology route should be a scenario where 2 to 3 differentiated technologies coexist, that is, BC technology and normal structure technology coexist in a long-term balance. "BC technology accounts for 30% to 40% of the market share, while other structures TOPCon, PERC and HJT account for 60% to 70%."

This is also the current view of some brokerage institutions. CICC pointed out in a research report released in September that "this round of battery technology iteration is accelerating and more diversified than in the past, that is, from a single PERC to TOPCon, HJT, XBC and other technical routes."

Today, the continued expansion of the PV market is inevitably accompanied by technological innovation. After the honeymoon period of rapid expansion of production capacity and fierce influx of capital, the current domestic photovoltaic industry will usher in a new round of "fighting".

In the new cycle, photovoltaic enterprises should realize the importance of returning to scientific and technological innovation. This is the value of the technical battle.