Caixin News Agency, October 16 (Reporter Huang Lu) The price war in the smoky photovoltaic carbon thermal field may come to an end. With the increasing willingness of H2 downstream to expand production, carbon and carbon thermal field prices from the "freezing point" began to stabilize, photovoltaic "shovel sellers" ushered in a long-lost warm wind.

according to the agency's recent research on the photovoltaic industry chain, the price of hot field enterprises in the bidding of head silicon wafer manufacturers generally rose by about 10-15%. Regarding this statement, a reporter from the Caixin News Agency confirmed it in communication with relevant people close to a certain head company. The industry insider said, "The price of the hot field has indeed increased recently. At present, the market supply and demand are booming, and the company's orders have been fully booked until the first quarter of next year."

Unit earnings Q4 is expected to see a repair

Previously, due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the price of the carbon and carbon hot field experienced a wave of price wars. The peak price reached 800000 yuan/ton, and this year the lowest fell to more than 200,000 yuan/ton. Taking Zhongtian Rocket as an example, the company's gross profit margin of H1 for thermal field materials in 2023 was 4.99, a decrease of 10.21 percentage points from the same period last year.

With the increasing willingness to expand production downstream, the photovoltaic thermal field began to stabilize from the price "freezing point. According to the agency's recent research on the photovoltaic industry chain, thermal field enterprises in the head of silicon chip manufacturers in the tender price generally rose about 10-15%, overlay raw material carbon fiber prices fell, thermal field link unit earnings are expected to bottom out.

"when the unit price of the hot field drops to less than 300000 yuan/ton, it has basically touched or even fallen below the cost line of second-and third-tier enterprises, and backward production capacity is gradually cleared." The above-mentioned industry insiders told the Caixin News Agency reporter that "the recent hot field prices have indeed increased".

"now the price is about the same as at the beginning of the year. downstream silicon wafer factories want to expand production quickly when the price of silicon materials is relatively cheap, which is equivalent to the gradual easing of the downstream supply and demand relationship and the price will pick up." People from Tianyi Shangjia Securities Department told Caixin that the price should not fall any further now, but it is difficult to say how much it can rise (in the future).

Zhongtian rocket said in mid September that the price of hot field materials tends to be stable in the near future, and the market has a warming trend.

public information shows that Xi' an super code technology, a subsidiary of tianyi shangjia (688033.SH), jinbo shares (688598.SH) and zhongtian rocket (003009.SZ), has all laid out hot field business. Jinbo shares have established cooperative relations with Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), TCL Central (002129.SZ), Jingke Energy (688223.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), etc. Tianyi Shangjia has supplied goods to companies including Jingke Energy, Jingao Technology, Longji Green Energy, Trina Solar Energy, etc.

downstream demand is booming, with orders from enterprises scheduled to the first quarter of next year

With the gradual increase in the penetration rate of the N-type battery market, the photovoltaic industry has higher and higher requirements for the comprehensive performance of thermal field components, especially the purity. The higher the purity requirement, the higher the competition threshold. From the demand side, silicon wafer new capacity or in this year's Q4 ushered in a small peak, Q3 growth of 17%,2024 year-on-year or another 25%, driving the hot field new demand bidding.

The above-mentioned person close to a certain head company told the Caixin News Agency reporter, "The current market supply and demand are booming, and the company's orders have been fully booked until the first quarter of next year."

tianyi shangjia said that the company's carbon-based business has been relatively saturated in production. after the company's furnaces over 8 meters are put into production one after another this year, the company's production capacity will reach a relatively good scale. It is understood that the company's third-generation super-large-size deposition furnace with a diameter of more than 8 meters will complete the installation and commissioning of equipment at the end of the first quarter of 2023. After it is put into production, its annual production capacity of carbon and carbon thermal field products will reach 3500 tons. It is expected that the fourth generation of deposition equipment will be gradually put into operation by the end of 2023, including a variety of carbon-based materials products overall deposition capacity (annualized) is expected to expand to more than 5000 tons. Zhongtian Rocket said that the company's thermal field material production line production capacity utilization is sufficient, in full production state.

Jinbo shares fixed increase project high-purity large-size advanced carbon-based composite project reached full production, production capacity of 3500 tons/year, the company's first half of the carbon-based composite sales of more than 1700 tons. The relevant person in charge of the company disclosed to the reporter of Caixin News Agency that the company has carried out the development and application of new heaters for photovoltaic. The comprehensive performance of the bottom heater of carbon/carbon composite material is better than that of graphite heater, which meets the technical requirements of energy saving, consumption reduction and high comprehensive cost performance of thermal field systems such as single crystal furnace, and can help customers reduce costs and increase efficiency. It is expected that the demand for such products will be relatively large in the future.

In addition, from the cost side, the main raw material for carbon thermal field companies is carbon fiber. For example, the carbon-carbon thermal field material of Jinbo shares uses carbon fiber with T700 small tow. Statistics show that the latest domestic carbon fiber market average price of 96.7 yuan/kg, remained unchanged month-on-month, down 43.12 year-on-year.

some people in the industry have made a calculation that if the price rises by 15%, it will increase the profit per ton by 37500 yuan. If the cost is saved by 25000 yuan/ton, it will increase the profit per ton by 60000 yuan.

it is worth mentioning that, in the face of the previous has been greatly "shrink" in the field of photovoltaic carbon-based related product pricing, although the second and third tier enterprises are not willing to expand production or even the initiation of withdrawal, but the overall expansion of the head of the enterprise this year is still not small. A private equity fund manager told a reporter from the Caixin News Agency that the current price increase indicates that the price has basically bottomed out after a round of "reshuffle", but the continued increase may not be too large. Carbon-based business is the basic disk, the head of several enterprises have realized that the "high price era" is gone, are expanding the business radiation circle, the future point of view or when the new business volume.

bid farewell to the "high gross rate era", not willing to only do photovoltaic "shovel". In addition to the carbon-carbon thermal field, Tianyi also laid out the quartz crucible, carbon ceramic brake disc, lithium-electric negative thermal field and other business.