Core View

General Equipment: 2024 is the window period for the manufacturing inventory cycle to switch from the active de-stocking stage to the passive de-stocking and active replenishment stage; general equipment boom and plate valuation pivot up, it is recommended to actively layout general equipment. November 2023 is the 19th month of active de-stocking in the sixth inventory cycle, the longest active de-stocking in history. According to historical data, the transition of the manufacturing inventory cycle from active de-stocking to passive de-stocking and active replenishment phases has been accompanied by an improvement in general equipment orders and an upward shift in the sector valuation pivot.

humanoid robot: 2024 is the first year of small-scale mass production of humanoid robots from 0-1. it is suggested to select stocks from three paths and five directions and lay out the core targets of the industrial chain with priority cards. Tesla humanoid robots drive global industrial development, domestic supply chains have natural cost and efficiency advantages, priority cards and competitive corporate certainty benefit. Three paths: Tesla industry chain, domestic humanoid robot industry chain, potential targets with card position capability; Five directions: screws and equipment, reducers, sensors, motors and new materials.

domestic substitution and independent control: domestic substitution and independent control are the basic requirements to ensure the security of the supply chain of the industrial chain. The Central Economic Work Conference in December stressed that "improving the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain supply chain" and realizing domestic substitution and independent control in key industries and key areas is the proper meaning of the strong chain. The domestic substitution and independent control of the equipment manufacturing industry is not only the key layout direction of the short-term dimension, but also the preferred option of the medium-and long-term dimension layout machinery plate. Focus on industrial mother machine, industrial control, cutting tools, precision instruments, robots, hydraulic parts and other subdivisions.

export chain: overseas demand resilience, export chain-related enterprises benefit. China's exports to the US ended their decline, rising 8.7 per cent year-on-year in November, while exports to other parts of the country narrowed. The end of the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing, and the rate cut channel opens in 2024. U.S. inventories bottomed out in the short term and gradually entered the stage of active replenishment in 2024. It is recommended to focus on the layout of the real estate chain, consumer chain and some industrial varieties that benefit from overseas exports and manufacturing returns.

3C equipment: consumer electronics or usher in a recovery; new products, new materials bring equipment end investment opportunities. The application trend of titanium alloy in 3C field is gradually obvious, and it is recommended to lay out CNC machining and 3D printing equipment and materials. Since Q3 2023, 3C shipments have narrowed, marginal good, 2024 includes Apple MR new product launch, consumer electronics or usher in a recovery, it is recommended to pay attention to 3C equipment investment opportunities.

attach importance to α opportunities in some subdivided fields: besides the plate and directional opportunities mentioned above, namely general equipment, humanoid robot, 3C equipment, domestic substitution and export chain direction, α opportunities for high-quality targets and industry leaders exist in subdivided fields such as construction machinery, oil service equipment, rail transit, inspection and testing, process industry, industrial gas, filter pressing equipment, laser equipment, etc, it is recommended to focus on.

general equipment: cutting tools: huarui precision (688059), okeyi (688308), zhongtungsten hi-tech (000657); Injection molding machines: Haitian international (1882) and yizimi (300415); Forklift trucks: Nori Co., Ltd. (603279), Hangcha Group (603298), Anhui Heli (600761); Machine tools: huazhong Numerical Control (300161), Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837), Neway Numerical Control (688697), Haitian Seiko (601882); Reducer: Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915); Industrial robot: eston (002747); Intelligent logistics: lanjian intelligent (688557)
humanoid robot: 1) lead screw and equipment, the targets include Wuzhou Xinchun (603667), Best (300580), Dingzhi Technology (873593), Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837), Rifa Precision Machine (002520) and Huachen Equipment (300809);2) Reducer, the targets include green harmonic (688017), double ring transmission (002472) and Zhongda Lide (002896);3) frameless torque motor, hollow cup motor, the targets include Mingzhi Electric (603728), Buke shares (688160), Weichuang Electric (688698), Huichuan Technology (300124), Hechuan Technology (688320);4) Humanoid robot body, the target includes Boshi shares (002698) and so on

domestic substitution and autonomous control: huazhong CNC (300161), Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837), Neway CNC (688697), Haitian Seiko (601882), Guosheng Zhike (688558), Kede CNC (688305), etc.

Export Chain: zhejiang Dingli (603338), yindu shares (603277), Taotao car industry (301345), quanfeng holding (02285), grebo (301260), haoyang shares (300833), jiechang drive (603583), spring breeze power (603129), superstar technology (002444) and other

3C equipment: huaxing Yuanchuang (688001), Precision Measurement Electronics (300567), Saiteng Stock (603283), Rongqi Technology (301360), Kerui Technology (002957), Qiangrui Technology (301128), Bojie Stock (002975), Bozhong Seiko (688097), Li Hexing (301013), etc.

Subdivision Alpha Target: Instruments: puyuan Jingdian (688337), Dingyang Science and Technology (688112), Youlide (688628);TIC: Su Test (300416), China Test (300012), Radio and Television Measurement (002967), National Cable Test (301289); Construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Aidi Precision (603638); Industrial gases: hangyang shares (002430), Foster (603173), Shaanxi drum power (601369); Rail equipment: thinking train control (603508), China Central Vehicle (601766), China General Number (688009); Spinning equipment: Jack shares (603337), Honghua Digital Branch (688789); Oil clothing equipment: jerry's shares (002353), CNOOC Engineering (600583), CNOOC Services (601808), Petrochemical Machinery (000852), Dewell (688377);3D Printing: Huashu Gaoke (688433): jingjin Equipment (603279), Minglida (301268), Jingye Intelligence (688290), Tianzhun Technology (688003), Rongzhi Rixin (688768), Pangu Intelligence (301456), Zhongmi Holdings (300470), Dafeng Industry (603081)

Risk Tips: Macroeconomic Fluctuation Risk; Risk of raw material price changes; Research and development of high-end technologies fell short of expectations.