after Ali closed the quantum computing laboratory at the end of November and donated the quantum laboratory and the transferable quantum experimental equipment to Zhejiang university, less than 2 months later, Baidu quantum computing research institute reported another change, saying that Baidu quantum computing research institute's quantum laboratory and transferable quantum experimental equipment would be donated to Beijing quantum information science research institute [1].

It is reported that the two sides are currently working on specific details.

The same technology giants, the same "fruitful", the same donation to scientific research.

at that time, Ali closed the quantum computing laboratory, and rumors were already everywhere in the industry. today, there was a second reappearance of Baidu. is it really the cold winter of quantum computing?

Figure | Baidu Ganshi Quantum Software Platform (Source: Baidu)

01.

Quantum computing under huge sums

At present, the global economy is sluggish, and technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, Ali, Baidu, and Amazon have all carried out large-scale layoffs. After all, in this difficult period, the most important thing is to increase revenue and reduce expenditure and survive.

When it comes to cutting costs, quantum computing is necessarily a priority.

At present, the development of quantum computing is still in the "baby" stage, that is to say, in addition to burning money, there is no obvious benefit in the short term (5-10 years).

When it comes to burning money, you have to mention something like

technology giants such as Google, IBM, Ali, Tencent and Baidu generally use their own blood transfusions to develop quantum technology.

Startups, on the other hand, receive funding through various sources of financing.

You know, the research of quantum technology is really burning money.

so, even quantum start-ups get tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars in financing.

take the financing data for 2022 as an example, the financing amount of more than 100 million yuan has the source quantum, huayi quantum, quantum spin technology and turing quantum four quantum computing companies.

As for revenue, we can intuitively feel from the financial reports of quantum computing listed companies in the third quarter of 2023 [2] [3] [4].

For such a sophisticated quantum technology that has swept the world and its popularity is rising, its income and popularity are compared

Not too strong.

it is worth mentioning that it is not only the Q3 report of fiscal year 2023 that is the same, but almost all previous financial statements are in this trend.

therefore, Baidu and Ali withdrew the quantum computing laboratory. many people in the industry said that money could not be spent.

02.

The crackdown behind the revocation

Money, however, is only one factor. After all, it is also an increase in revenue and expenditure, but so far, only Ali and Baidu have been among the big factories that have been reported to have laid off their quantum computing departments.

Ali and Baidu are both domestic enterprises.

the author speculates that the cancellation of quantum laboratory by Ali and Baidu may also be related to relevant regulations.

In November 2021, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued a new list of entities related to China and export control reforms to restrict exports to China in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, and drones.

It is worth mentioning that quantum computing, as an emerging technology, has not yet produced practical applications, and is still in the early stage of exploration, so it has been pulled into the prohibited list.

The BIS put 27 entities and individuals on the so-called "military end-user" list, suppressing 12 Chinese companies. [5], on the grounds that they support China's "quantum computing efforts, supporting military applications, such as anti-stealth and anti-submarine applications, and the ability to crack encryption or develop unbreakable encryption," among other activities.

includes quantum communications giant Guodun Quantum (688027) and its subsidiaries, which are already listed on the board, as well as Hefei National Laboratory for Microscale Material Sciences (see: Sudden, U.S. Department of Commerce blacklists Guodun Quantum).

However, this is just the beginning.

In December 2021, the U.S. Congress adopted broader end-of-year sanctions, export controls, and supply chain restrictions, targeting China's national security complex, high-tech entities, and some companies that have been charged with "trumped-up" charges. Its year-end sanctions targets include Chinese supply chains and artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biotechnology [6].

In August 2023, the Biden administration signed an executive order to China, explicitly restricting investment in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum computing.

This wave of operations reflects the bipartisan concerns about U.S. investment, exports to China, and commercial support for certain activities in China. However, from the actual situation, these concerns have been magnified for no reason, and there is indeed a suspicion of unprovoked suppression.

Quantum computing, as one of the strongest interdisciplinary research directions, relies heavily on global supply of infrastructure in addition to its own quantum chip technology, such as superconducting quantum computers based on the low-temperature superconducting technology route that rely heavily on dilution refrigerators (see:

The most complete quantum computing hardware overview

).

With the demand for large-scale qubits as the premise, the current refrigerator is certainly unable to meet the large-scale demand, such as IBM customized its own huge refrigeration system. But these technologies seem to be threatened by regulation.

judging from many interviews, at present, there are no independent and commercially available dilution refrigerators in China to supply quantum computer developers in the market (secret breakthroughs are not excluded)[7], most of which are provided by Oxford instruments, Bluefors or other suppliers of underlying facilities. new quantum computing competitors have established such subtle cooperative relations.

Figure | Oxford Instrument, a mainstream instrument supplier

, Bluefors, Zurich Instruments, qblox, etc. (source:

quantum guest "quantum computing revolution")

On November 16, 2023, Alibaba stated in a statement that due to the "uncertainty" of the recent US control of chip exports to China, Alibaba Group abandoned its plan to spin off its cloud computing division and go public. The next day, Alibaba's market value fell by $20 billion.

A series of restrictive measures in the United States will bring certain technological development bottleneck threats to restricted entities

. Although this may also stimulate Chinese entities to accelerate investment and breakthroughs in this area, the risks still exist. Perhaps, Baidu and Ali is a typical example.

03.

Quantum winter is coming?

it seems that in the short term, Ali and Baidu are "abandoning" quantum computing.

However, as an enterprise, it may be the best choice to donate laboratories and equipment to research institutions instead of dying out in the hands of technologies that have not seen returns for a long time.

Many voices said that powerful people such as Ali and Baidu have "abandoned" quantum computing. Does it mean that the winter of quantum computing is coming?

In such an environment, the news that Baidu and Ali closed the quantum computing laboratory undoubtedly cast a shadow on the quantum computing field in China and even the world. Although the development of quantum technology requires huge investment and long-term cultivation, it is also deeply influenced by the international political pattern and trade policy.

The future of quantum computing depends not only on technological progress, but also on global cooperation and an open research environment.

Even technology giants have to make strategic adjustments in the face of financial pressure and external control. This provides important enlightenment to all companies and researchers engaged in quantum computing-technological innovation and The sustainability of the business model needs to be considered simultaneously, and in the cycle of alternating technology, steady progress and flexibility are equally important.

Although the current situation seems a bit bleak, the future of quantum computing is still worth looking forward. After all, the United States, China, Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom and other countries are heavily invested in the game, Google, IBM and other technology giants have studied for decades and still firmly believe.

The theoretical and experimental research of quantum computing is gradually deepening, and the quantum wire of 48 logical qubits has been realized.IBM and AtomComputing have launched 1000 qubit systems and have shown potential application value in transportation, finance, logistics and other fields.

although China started late in the field of quantum computing, it has made good achievements at present. for example, superconducting quantum chips of quantum spinning technology have been exported overseas, native quantum has introduced 64Q superconducting quantum computers, turing quantum has introduced optical quantum computers-TuringQ Gen 1, and qike quantum, huayi quantum and guoyi quantum have successively introduced ion well quantum computers.

According to recent global developments, it is foreseeable that with the gradual optimization of policies and the strengthening of international cooperation, quantum computing will achieve breakthroughs in multiple dimensions in the future. This includes continued advances in hardware technology, innovations at the algorithmic and software levels, and the exploration of new business models and application scenarios.

At the same time, China is also likely to narrow the gap with the international advanced level by increasing investment in local quantum technology, promoting the rapid progress of research and industrialization. Ultimately, quantum computing could become a new engine of technological progress and economic growth, providing unprecedented impetus to solve complex problems and drive technological innovation.

And those companies and research institutions that can continue to invest, endure the cold winter, and wait for the spring to bloom are expected to become leaders in the spring of quantum computing.