-Kexing Bio's new crown inactivated vaccine "Kellefu" is one of the first approved new crown vaccines in China, which was sold for over 100 billion yuan in 2021. Prior to Kexing, a number of companies had suspended production of the new crown vaccine or stopped investing in further development of the new crown vaccine. From a global perspective, multinational pharmaceutical companies are also slowly turning.

on January 10, 2024, a document entitled "stop issuing new crown project performance salary plan" was circulated on the internet, and it was signed by Beijing kexing zhongwei biotechnology company (hereinafter referred to as "kexing biology", SVA.US), and the date of payment was "January 9, 2024". It mentions that "at this stage, the Company has discontinued all of its new crown vaccines and the Company currently has no new crown vaccine products for sale, and the Company has decided to discontinue the payment of new crown project performance pay to existing employees from January 2024."

according to the extreme eye news report, at noon on January 10, the reporter called Kexing biological products hotline, the staff confirmed that the company's new crown vaccine has indeed been discontinued, if you still need to inject the product, you have to ask the local CDC, whether there is stock.

It is reported that Kexing Bio's new crown inactivated vaccine "Kellefu" is one of the first approved new crown vaccines in China, this vaccine has been sold in 2021 more than 100 billion yuan.

Many companies withdraw from the new crown vaccine market

The results show that in 2019, before the new crown pandemic, Kexing had annual revenue of $0.246 billion and net profit attributable to its parent of $39.801 million. In 2021, the company achieved full-year sales of $19.375 billion, up 3694.36 percent year-over-year, and net profit of $14.459 billion, up 7729.37 percent year-over-year. The 2023 semi-annual report shows that Kexing Bio's first-half sales of $0.14 billion, down 88 percent year-on-year, net profit of $16.92 million, down 96.51 percent year-on-year, mainly due to the new crown vaccine "Kellefu" sales decreased.

Prior to this, a number of companies had suspended production of the new crown vaccine or stopped investing in further development of the new crown vaccine.

On April 4, 2023, Conchino (688185.SH) said that due to changes in the external market environment, the company decided to start suspending production of the new crown (vaccine) production line for a period of about 180 days. In 2023, Concino achieved sales revenue of RMB 0.414 billion in the first three quarters, of which RMB 0.239 billion due to the withdrawal of return offset income (due to the decline in demand, according to the agreement can be returned), resulting in its operating income of RMB 0.176 billion in the first three quarters, the net profit loss attributable to the parent expanded to RMB 0.985 billion.

On June 13, 2023, Wantai Bio (603392.SH) issued an announcement to terminate the fund-raising investment project "Nasal Spray Vaccine Industry Base Construction Project", and to permanently supplement the working capital or repay the loan with the remaining raised funds to further optimize the capital structure. The project is planned for the construction of vaccine production plants and supporting rooms, as well as the acquisition of production equipment and the construction of two nasal spray new crown vaccine production lines. However, Wantai Bio's comprehensive judgment: the market demand for nasal spray new crown vaccine is lower than the estimated number of the original project, and the nasal spray new crown vaccine with an annual production capacity of 0.1 billion doses can meet the existing market demand, so it was decided to terminate the implementation of the project.

on July 21, 2023, germany decided to suspend the trial operation of tianci factory, which supplies new crown mRNA vaccine. the company said that due to major changes in the external objective environment and considering that there is no demand for new crown vaccine production in tianci factory in the near future, in order to reduce the operating cost of the enterprise, tianci factory suspended the trial operation and will focus on research and development in the future.

Fosun Pharma (600196.SH) said in its 2023 semi-annual report that with the new crown epidemic no longer constituting a "public health emergency of international concern", revenue from anti-epidemic products such as Fubitai decreased significantly year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the net profit of Fuxing Pharmaceutical's revenue showed a double decline. The company's operating income fell by 2.92 year-on-year to 30.7 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent fell by 6.39 year-on-year to 2.283 billion yuan.

Clover Bio-B(02197) also stated in its 2023 semi-annual report that due to the changing and low overall demand for new crown vaccines in China and global national procurement departments since 2023, the company does not expect sales of new crown vaccines to bring meaningful financial contributions in 2023, and its vaccine layout will shift to respiratory diseases such as RSV and influenza.

Global neo-crown vaccine companies are in the same situation?

Globally, multinational pharmaceutical companies that had previously focused on the development of new crown vaccines are slowly turning around.

2021 financial results show that Pfizer's (PFE.US) vaccine business accounts for more than 50% of revenue, and its new crown vaccine Comirnaty accounts for more than 86% of the vaccine business. This directly contributed to a 92% year-on-year increase in the company's 2021 revenue to $81.288 billion, making it the second-largest pharmaceutical company in the world in 2021. But if the contribution of new crown-related products is excluded, Pfizer's revenue growth this year is actually only 6%.

According to Pfizer's Q3 2023 earnings report, its revenue was $13.23 billion billion, down 42% year-over-year, marking its first quarterly loss since 2019. Among them, the new crown vaccine Comirnaty 2023 full-year expected revenue of $11.5 billion, down 70% year-on-year; the new crown drug Paxlovid 2023 full-year expected revenue of $1 billion, down 95% year-on-year. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said he is moving quickly to fix the problem and plans to pin his company's hopes on one of the most competitive areas for growth in the pharmaceutical industry: cancer.

In December 2023, Pfizer completed the acquisition of cancer drugmaker Seagen in a deal valued at up to $43 billion, which will provide Pfizer with four approved products and a rich pipeline of ADC (antibody-conjugated drug) candidates. Pfizer expects the merger to generate $10 billion in additional annual revenue by 2030.

Noting that the weight-loss drug will be Pfizer's next big product, Albert said that the company's annual sales of weight-loss drugs could reach $10 billion. "We believe obesity is an area where we can participate and win, and we have to participate."

Data show that U.S. biotech company Modna (Moderna,MRNA.US) has seen sales of its new crown vaccine decline, resulting in a 44% drop in its share price for the full year 2023. In January 2023, the company issued a shareholder letter emphasizing the vision of "15 new products to be launched within 5 years", and it is expected to obtain the approval decision of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for adult respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in April 2024.

analyst Hartaj Singh pointed out that although Modena's new crown vaccine may experience a sales trough in 2024, vaccine sales are expected to return to growth in 2025 as awareness of infectious diseases increases. The company's other product lines are also highly regarded, including flu vaccines and personalized cancer vaccines, which are expected to be approved in the next few years. Modena is currently working with US drug company MRK.US to develop a cancer vaccine aimed at treating diseases such as skin cancer.