SOURCE: Titanium Media

according to Infolink data, the proportion of n-type production capacity increased significantly in the second half of 2023, with an increase of more than 20% in the third quarter and a peak of 52% in December. The same is true for bidding and procurement. According to comprehensive statistics, P-type component bidding is still the main component bidding in 2023, but N-type bidding has risen rapidly since August. By November and December, N-type component bidding accounted for nearly 70%. According to Jibang Consulting, the total number of tenders for N-type components in 2023 reached 124 GW, accounting for about 43.4 percent. Under the huge potential difference, this N-type to P-type technical iteration continues to move forward to 2024 with an unstoppable attitude.

According to the prediction of third-party research institutions, "entering 2024, the proportion of N-type in the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to reach 70% or even higher." This also indicates that the photovoltaic N-type era has accelerated, and the photovoltaic industry chain related manufacturers have also accelerated the layout of N-type production capacity.

after industry leaders such as jingke energy (688223.SH) have planned 2024 production capacity targets, atlas (688472.SH), which has been listed for less than a year, is also unambiguous in capacity expansion, with a planned investment of nearly 10 billion yuan to increase the scale of n-type production capacity. In the view of industry insiders, according to the construction of the industry's N-type capacity, it is expected that the industry's N-type capacity will also enter the surplus stage in 2024, and the Matthew effect of the industry will become more and more obvious.

Artes launches new project to expand production, with investment of nearly 10 billion

on the evening of February 26, atlas announced that in order to rapidly enhance the scale of n-type advanced production capacity and product competitiveness and increase market share, the company plans to build a new energy industrial park project with an annual output of 14GW slices + 14GW batteries + 14GW components in Lianshui county, Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province. It is expected that the civil construction equipment will enter the market in March 2024, and the production capacity will be rapidly formed after the installation and commissioning are completed.

It is understood that the total planned investment of the above-mentioned project is 9.63 billion yuan (including supporting working capital), which will be constructed in three phases. The construction of the agent plant of the first phase of the project will start within 1 month after the land is delisted, and the plant construction period of each phase of the project will not exceed 7 months. The equipment installation cycle is planned to be no more than 6 months (calculated from the date of equipment entry), and the investment payback period is 3.15 years (excluding the construction period).

In July 2023, Artes announced that it would invest in the construction of a photovoltaic new energy industry chain project in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with a total investment of 14 billion yuan. At the end of October last year, Artes plans to continue to lay out overseas N-type battery cell production capacity on the basis of U.S. component production capacity investment, and start the U.S. Artes annual production of 5GW high-efficiency N-type battery cell project plan. The total planned investment of the project is about US $0.839 billion, which is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025.

In the eyes of industry insiders, the purpose of Artes's new project investment plan of nearly 10 billion yuan is very clear. One is to expand production capacity and ensure its own supply capacity to the market. The other is to increase the N-type production capacity in line with most peer strategies. Proportion. Artes has previously said that the company's TOPCon production has not been fully released in 2023 and is expected to increase significantly in 2024.

However, as a capital-intensive industry, the continued expansion of PV has also tested its financial strength. As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, Artes's monetary fund is 18.795 billion yuan, which is not enough to cover the total investment of the above three projects. Current short-term borrowings and illiquid liabilities maturing within one year were $6.225 billion and $2.447 billion, respectively.

Component manufacturers "watershed" is obvious, the second echelon competition is fierce

according to the InfoLink disclosure announcement, although 2023 was affected by the supply side, inventory accumulation and other disturbances in the second half of the year, the market demand still delivered a bright report card, and the volume of shipments of the list manufacturers increased significantly, up 78% from the total in 2022. The trend of component links highlights the obvious division of watershed between manufacturers. The former manufacturers are the same as last year. However, the competition in the second echelon is very fierce, and the ranking is obviously transferred. The 10th ranking shipment is very close, and the number of manufacturers increases to 13.

specifically, the top four manufacturers in 2023 are jingke, longji/tianhe and jingao, accounting for about 60% of the total volume of the Top10 list. Tongwei shares, Artes tied for the fifth largest global component shipments list.

by comparison, the watershed between component manufacturers is obviously divided. in 2022, the shipment volume of the top four manufacturers and the fifth manufacturer will be 20GW different. however, by 2023, the shipment scale of the top four manufacturers will start as high as 60GW, and the difference with the latter manufacturers will increase to 30GW.

a long-term observation of the photovoltaic industry, said the excess is only backward production capacity, advanced capacity is never excess. Following this industrial logic, the PV industry reshuffle intensified in 2024, backward production capacity will accelerate the clearance, advanced production capacity will still accelerate the release. Take the photovoltaic module link as an example, the global shipment ranking Top10 manufacturers of the N-type expansion plan is increasing.

for example, "pin crown" jingke energy disclosed its "small target" for 2024 on January 2 ". The first is "integrated scale industry first, N-type advanced production capacity exceeded 100GW".

Trina Solar (688599.SH) will also vigorously increase TOPCon's production capacity in 2023. According to the plan, the company will form an N-type silicon wafer production capacity of 50GW, a module production capacity of 95GW and a battery production capacity of 75GW by the end of the year, of which the N-type battery production capacity is 40GW, all using a new generation of N-type i-TOPCon advanced technology. In terms of shipments, Trina Solar's component shipments in the first three quarters were about 45GW, and the full-year component shipments are expected to exceed 70GW. Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, said recently that in 2024, the new N-type TOPCon component capacity of Trina Solar will increase rapidly and is expected to account for more than 80% of product sales.

it is reported that dongfang risheng, a new energy, yingli energy, hengdian dongci, suntech power, xiexin integration, etc. are all expected to achieve more than 10GW component shipments and continue to break through in n-type production capacity.

Artes said in the survey that by the end of 2024, the company expects the production capacity of pull rods, silicon chips, battery chips and components to reach 50.4GW, 55GW, 60GW and 61GW respectively, and the module shipments are expected to be between 42 and 47GW in 2024. However, there is a big gap between the capacity scale of this plan and the current scale of the top four manufacturers.

N-type overcapacity challenges, differentiated play is the key

InfoLink analysis shows that the 2024 shipment target, considering the shipment target plan of the manufacturers in this list, estimates the total amount of planning as high as 700GW, of which the shipment plan of new technology products accounts for more than 70%, and even some plans account for 90-100%, with TOPCon planning as the bulk. And the top four manufacturers shipping target significantly increased to about 90GW above the level, even as high as 120GW, and the second echelon manufacturers are still significantly different.

InfoLink predict that the growth rate of component demand will slow down in 2024, with an annual growth rate of only about 11% and a volume of about 460-519GW. the top 10 manufacturers plan a volume of 700GW, verifying that the fierce competition will continue to burn until this year.

on January 26, longji green energy (601012.SH) pointed out in the investor relations record form that according to the construction of n-type capacity in the industry, it is expected that n-type capacity in the industry will also enter the surplus stage in 2024.

qu Fang, investment consultant of wanlian securities, told titanium media APP that the photovoltaic market will continue to clear out backward p-type production capacity in 2024, while nearly 20 photovoltaic enterprises will go to sea to build factories, which is no small challenge for atlas, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of overseas income.

InfoLink pointed out that the current problem of oversupply has begun to ferment, and the order taking rate in the first quarter of this year is obviously differentiated. manufacturers need to think about how to grasp rapid decision-making, differentiated products and technological opportunities under the current situation of homogeneous competition. the wattage, quality and efficiency of products this year will be one of the factors for manufacturers to compete. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of overseas markets, especially for the use of materials and manufacturing places, as well as policy changes and restrictions. If manufacturers can prepare in advance, it will be the key to stand out in the highly competitive 2024.

Longji Green Energy said that in a highly homogeneous competitive environment, focusing on customer needs and creating differentiated competitive advantages will become the key to the breakthrough of photovoltaic companies.

Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance and executive director of the High-quality Development Promotion Project for Specialized and Special New Enterprises, said that photovoltaic industry technology is not the only competitive factor. Factors such as brand influence will also have an important impact on the competitive landscape. (This article started on Titanium Media APP, by Liu Fengru)

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