huajin securities released a research report saying that HBM broke through the "memory wall" and realized high bandwidth and high capacity, becoming the strongest assistant of AI chips. the bank believes that HBM will continue to iterate, the number of I/O ports and the rate of single I/O ports will gradually increase, HBM3 and HBM3e will gradually become the mainstream configuration of AI servers, and the product cycle is relatively long, and the single capacity and the number of configuration will gradually increase, HBM4 is expected to be released in 2026. In 2024, the global HBM market is expected to exceed 10 billion US dollars, the market space is sufficient, the domestic supply chain accelerated support.

related targets: including sealing and testing links: tongfu micro electric (002156.SZ) (advanced packaging), changdian technology (600584.SH) (advanced packaging), etc.; Equipment link: Tuojing Technology (688072.SH)(PECVD ALD Bonding Equipment), Huahai Qingke (688120.SH)(thinning CMP), Core Source Micro (688037.SH)(temporary bonding link and debonding materials): huahai Chengke (688535.SH) (epoxy plastic sealing material), Tiancheng Technology (688603.SH)(RDL TSV plating additive), Eisen shares (688720.SH) (advanced packaging plating) and so on.

Huajin Securities views are as follows:

HBM accelerates iteration, market space is sufficient:

HBM broke through the "memory wall" to achieve high bandwidth and high capacity and become the strongest assistant of AI chips. the bank believes that HBM will continue to iterate, the number of I/O ports and the rate of single I/O ports will gradually increase, HBM3 and HBM3e will gradually become the mainstream configuration of AI servers, and the product cycle is relatively long, with the single capacity and the number of configurations gradually increasing. it is expected to be released in 2026. In 2024, the global HBM market is expected to exceed 10 billion US dollars, the market space is sufficient, the domestic supply chain accelerated support.

HBM3 Hynix is the first to introduce MR-MUF,HBM4 sword refers to mixed bonding:

currently HBM is stacked by "TSV Bumping" TCB bonding method (TSV is usually completed by fabs, and sealing and testing plants can be matched in the stacking process). however, with the increase of stacking layers, heat dissipation efficiency is very poor, and TCB no longer meets the demand. hynex takes the lead in introducing MR-MUF to return to large-scale reflow soldering process. liquid epoxy molding compound is used as filling material between chips, and thermal conductivity is much higher than non-TC-NCF, but Hyix also expects HBM4 to introduce a hybrid bonding Hybrid Bonding scheme to eliminate interconnect bumps. The bank predicts that the current HBM mainstream is still TCB pressure, the MR-MUF scheme is a transition scheme, the future hybrid bonding is the general trend. Liquid molding compound LMC is still one of the most important semiconductor materials for wafer level packaging.

Hybrid bonding and TSV are the core of 3D packaging. HBM "connection" and "stacking" bring new opportunities for the development of equipment materials:

hybrid bonding is divided into wafer-to-wafer W2W and chip-to-wafer D2W. 3D NAND uses W2W. a typical case is Changxin storage Xstacking. the CMOS layer storage layer uses W2W hybrid bonding scheme. it is expected that HBM will also use W2W scheme in the future. compared with D2W scheme, W2W is generally applied to wafers with very high yield to avoid loss. According to the bank's industrial chain research, hybrid bonding will fully drive the demand for permanent bonding equipment and thinning CMP. According to BESI's official data, it is expected that the storage field will contribute a significant increase in hybrid bonding equipment in the future. It is conservatively estimated that the demand will exceed 200 units in 2026, and thinning CMP will also become an important link. The current HBM scheme mainly drives the solid crystal machine, temporary bonding and de-bonding, plastic packaging equipment and PECVD, electroplating, CMP and other equipment required by TSV. The material end is TSV plating solution, plastic sealing material, etc.

Risk Warning: The risk of industry and market fluctuations, the risk of international trade friction, the risk of new technologies, new processes and new products not being able to be industrialized as scheduled, the risk of capacity expansion not progressing as expected, and the risk of increased industry competition.