Brief comment on the incident

On March 15, 2024, the company issued an announcement that the company recently received the "Notice of Acceptance" issued by the State Drug Administration). The company's product Pagbing? (generic name: pegylated interferon α-2b injection) combined with nucleosides (acid) analogs are suitable for the clinical cure of adult chronic hepatitis B.

business analysis

in the field of chronic hepatitis B treatment application depth is expected to further improve. Peg Bing? is the company's current core product, is China's first domestically listed polyethylene glycol (PEG) modified interferon varieties (therapeutic biological products national class 1 new drugs). According to the company's previous announcement, the registered clinical trial of chronic hepatitis B clinical cure initiated by the company is the industry's first registered clinical trial of long-acting interferon for the purpose of clinical cure. It is a large-sample, randomized controlled trial clinical study. The research results formed will Improve the level of evidence-based medical evidence for the clinical cure of chronic hepatitis B, and further improve the in-depth application of Pegabin in the field of chronic hepatitis B treatment.

hepatitis B clinical cure concept continues to spread, the core product is expected to maintain a high growth rate.

with the continuous accumulation of evidence-based medical evidence for clinical cure of chronic hepatitis B in nucleoside-treated population and the continuous enrichment of real-world clinical applications, the 2022 edition of the official guidelines include the recommendation that such population consider using pegylated interferon α to pursue clinical cure, and the exploration of scientific issues surrounding clinical cure of hepatitis B is further deepened. With the continuous popularization of the concept of clinical cure of hepatitis B and the accumulation of scientific evidence, the clinical application of key products will be further promoted, and sales revenue is expected to maintain a high growth rate.

hepatitis B treatment program to explore continued in-depth, orderly progress of research and development projects. The company actively explores the combination of drugs with different mechanisms and better treatment options, and AK0706, a new hepatitis B drug developed in cooperation with AGCO Baifa, has successfully entered clinical research, while working with oligonucleotide drug development company Aligos Therapeutics,Inc. To carry out cooperative research and development projects to further expand the research and development pipeline layout in the field of hepatitis B treatment, the future is expected to provide more treatment options for clinical cure.

profit forecast, valuation and rating

we maintain the profit forecast. we expect the company to realize net profit of 5.54(+ 93%), 7.74(+ 40%) and 10.30(+ 33%) billion yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, corresponding to the current EPS of 1.36 yuan, 1.90 yuan and 2.53 yuan respectively, the corresponding current P/E is 48, 35, and 26 times, respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.

risk tips

new product approval is less than expected; new product sales promotion is less than expected risk; technical achievements can not effectively transform the risk.