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Last year, PV suffered a whole chain "price reduction tide", so that many enterprises performance is highly under pressure. At the beginning of this year, the industry was still discussing whether the higher price of silicon can lead to a rebound in the whole chain, when the upstream stabilization can be transmitted to the terminal component price, but in March and April, it once again deduced the trend of price reduction in the whole chain, and even the silicon material, which was previously considered to have entered the recovery range and was relatively strong, also suffered a sharp fall.

silicon: the whole line fell by more than 25%, the price has dropped to the enterprise cash cost level

in the first quarter of this year, silicon was the best link in the growth trend of photovoltaic main materials. although there was almost no transaction by the end of March, all kinds of silicon materials increased by more than 1.9, and n-type rod-shaped silicon increased by as much as 6.3.

by the beginning of April, the situation had suddenly changed. according to the data disclosed by the silicon branch of China nonferrous metals association at that time, n-type rod-shaped silicon had a 15.95 month-on-month decline in the first week of April, and the price of n-type granular silicon had a 8.49 month-on-month decline. SOLARZOOM think tank said that according to research, the silicon market became more and more chaotic in early April, with silicon companies with new production capacity offering low prices, and some small and medium-sized silicon companies or N-type silicon with new production capacity even offering prices lower than 50 yuan/kg. With the expected production reduction of silicon wafers, silicon production is increasing, and taking into account factors such as the increase in regional electricity prices and the increase in accumulated storage, the current N-type market quotation has been close to the cost price of most manufacturers, silicon enterprises are facing a sharp increase in survival pressure.

With the passage of time, polysilicon companies have gradually begun to sign a new round of orders. Although the number of contracts has increased greatly, the price of silicon materials cannot escape the curse of falling across the board. This situation has lasted for almost a whole month. According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Branch in late April, the transaction price range of P-type dense materials is 4-45000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 42800 yuan/ton, down 28.7 from the end of March. The transaction price range of N-type rod silicon is 4.5-52000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 49200 yuan/ton, down 31.8 from the end of March, which is the category with the largest decline; however, the N/P rod silicon spread narrowed to 4100 yuan/ton. For N-type granular silicon, the latest transaction price range is 4.2-44000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 43000 yuan/ton, down 28.5 from the end of March.

The Silicon Industry Branch also pointed out the severe situation facing silicon enterprises in the analysis, saying that the current silicon price has reached the cash cost level of most enterprises, and even fell below the cash cost level of some enterprises. Moreover, according to industry feedback, the decline in the current price of silicon is still less than expected downstream, and there is no sign of bottom-hunting by silicon wafer factories, coupled with the expected production reduction in the silicon wafer link, the pressure on silicon prices in May may still be greater. Digital New Energy DNE predicts that silicon prices are difficult to recover in the short term, but they are unlikely to continue to fall sharply.

Silicon: Prices continue to fall, production cuts are beginning to bear fruit

In terms of silicon wafers, there was a stabilizing trend in January and February this year, but the oversupply still exists, and the output continues to surge, which also led to a sharp drop of more than 10% in March, becoming the first part of the main link of the photovoltaic industry chain to "fall.

By April, silicon wafer prices were still going down, and some categories were even more volatile. According to the latest disclosed data, the transaction price range of P-type M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers is 1.6-1.7 yuan/wafer, and the average transaction price is 1.63 yuan/wafer, down about 7.3 from the end of March. The transaction price range of N-type M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers is 1.5-1.65 yuan/wafer, and the average transaction price is 1.55 yuan/wafer, down about 8.5 from the end of March; the transaction price range of P-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafer is 2.1-2.15 yuan/piece, and the average transaction price is 2.13 yuan/piece, which is about 14.4% lower than that at the end of March; the transaction price range of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafer is 2.1-2.3 yuan/piece, and the average transaction price is 2.18 yuan/piece, which is about 4% lower than that at the end of March.

at present, the price of silicon wafers is still fluctuating around the cash cost of silicon wafer manufacturers, which has also led some enterprises to change their strategies. in addition to reducing production and destocking, some specialized enterprises have increased the proportion of processing business with supplied materials to resist the pressure of price reduction. Some vertical integration leaders have reduced the proportion of their own production and instead purchased silicon wafers in the market to repair their performance reports. In addition, the Silicon Industry Branch also mentioned that in April, domestic silicon wafer production was 62.35GW, down 10.6 percent month-on-month, postponement, production reduction has become a common phenomenon, the current silicon wafer inventory has been reduced to less than half a month. SOLARZOOM think tanks also said that as companies have been reducing production, the market began to have the voice of silicon prices. However, after a rare year-on-year decline in photovoltaic installations in March, batteries and components downstream of silicon wafers may be more sensitive to prices, and wait-and-see sentiment may also affect the speed at which silicon wafers stop falling and stabilize.

Battery slice: slow downward price, OEM model squeezes direct selling price

the battery chip is the link with the smallest fluctuation in the main photovoltaic material in the first quarter. whether it is p-type or n-type, the decline is within 3%.

However, after the sharp drop in the upstream, the battery slice, which had previously loosened its price, also encountered more pressure in April. According to InfoLink data, as of the end of April, the transaction price range of single crystal PERC(182mm) was 0.32-0.36 yuan/W, and the average transaction price was 0.34 yuan/W, down about 8.1 from the end of March. The transaction price range of single crystal PERC(210mm) is 0.35-0.37 yuan/W, and the average transaction price is 0.36 yuan/W, almost the same as at the end of March; the transaction price range of N-type TOPCon is 0.39-0.41 yuan/W, and the average transaction price is 0.4 yuan/W, down about 13% from the end of March.

At present, the upstream silicon material, silicon wafer prices fell sharply, superimposed on the downstream demand side of the wait-and-see attitude, is the main reason for the battery chip link price pressure, this point is gradually releasing production capacity, expand the market share of the N-type products is the most typical. In addition, P-type batteries due to reduced supply but demand is still, so the price drop is small, and, due to the greater decline in silicon prices, battery factory profitability has been repaired, large-size PERC even rebounded at one point. However, after all, the current mainstream of the industry is "N-type substitution". Even if PERC has a better profit level in the short term, it is difficult to affect the iteration trend. Therefore, many research institutions said that most battery factories have only suspended the shutdown plan of PERC production lines, and no new expansion has occurred.

just like the silicon wafer link, the change of price level has led to the adjustment of enterprise strategy. according to the research conducted by InfoLink, SOLARZOOM and other institutions, many component factories tend to directly purchase silicon wafers to find contract manufacturers in battery factories, which has an impact on the direct selling price of the battery link, while enterprises with layout of batteries and components will get some space. In addition, under the background of price reduction in the whole chain, the wait-and-see mood of downstream component factories and terminal installations is becoming more and more obvious. As an intermediate link, it is difficult to get out of the independent market.

Components: Stabilization expectations are broken and prices are lower again

In the component link, prices were already very stable in February and March this year, briefly ending the continuous decline since the second half of last year, and leading companies have continued to try to raise prices. However, after the upstream "fell" one after another, the components still failed to hold up in April. According to the data released by the InfoLink, the current transaction price range of single crystal PERC(182mm, double-sided double-glass) is 0.78-0.9 yuan/W, and the average transaction price is 0.87 yuan/W, down 5.4 from the end of March. The transaction price range of single crystal PERC(210mm, double-sided double-glass) is 0.8-0.92 yuan/W, and the average transaction price is 0.89 yuan/W, down 6.3 from the end of March; TOPCon's transaction price range is 0.82-0.98 yuan/W, and the average transaction price is 0.92 yuan/W, down 4.2 from the end of March. HJT's transaction price range is 0.97-1.18 yuan/W, and the average transaction price is 1.15 yuan/W, down 4.2 from the end of March.

according to industry feedback, the price of distributed project components and the bidding price of centralized power station components are loose. in the centralized bid opening of huadian group's photovoltaic module project on April 12, the lowest bid price has been as low as 0.76 yuan/watt, hitting a new low again, which also has an impact on the average market price. In addition, large factories such as Jingke Energy (688223.SH) and Tianhe Solar (688599.SH) also lowered their product prices by 1-2 points/W in mid-April. According to the InfoLink's observation, it is difficult to explore the components at present. At the end of April, the first-line manufacturers still stick to the bottom line delivery level of 0.88 yuan, while the delivery price in the middle and late stages is still lower than the cost line. For the future market, it is expected that the price in May will be difficult to maintain the original price level. Some component manufacturers plan to cut production in May to control the price decline.

PV once again the whole chain price reduction, no doubt on the performance of enterprises to form a great pressure. In fact, judging from the performance in the first quarter of this year, many leading enterprises have already suffered losses. Typical examples include a loss of 0.787 billion yuan in the first quarter by Tongwei (600438.SH), a loss of 0.88 billion yuan by TCL Central (002129.SZ), one of the dual oligarchs of silicon chips, and a loss of 2.35 billion yuan by Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), another major oligarch and vertical integration giant, which is also affected by impairment of impairment, and a loss of Aixu, and a loss of Aixu (91.22 million yuan, component giant Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), which had strong performance before, also lost 0.48 billion yuan in the first quarter. Even enterprises that can still make profits have seen a sharp decline in their net profit performance. For example, the net profit of Daquan Energy (688303.SH) in the silicon link fell 89% year-on-year. Even Trine Solar Energy and JinkoSolar Energy, which went well in the tide of "N-type substitution", suffered 70.8 and 29.1 year-on-year declines in net profit. If the leader is still like this, the life of other small and medium-sized manufacturers is even more difficult. According to the analysis of the silicon industry branch, from the perspective of the whole industry chain, under the background of periodic oversupply, the main links from silicon materials to components have fallen below the production cost, and the market shows irrational competition in the short term.

in addition, it is worth noting that although the downstream photovoltaic installed capacity still increased 36% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, in March alone, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.02GW, a 32% year-on-year decline. this is also the first decline in the monthly growth rate of installed capacity in many years. if the downstream demand continues to decline, it will undoubtedly be even worse for upstream manufacturers ". (This article started with titanium media APP, author | Hu Jiameng, editor | Liu Yangxue)

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