Author Jiang Bo

Editing Yang Yi

the energy storage industry, which is jittery under the internal volume situation, is waiting for a red-headed management opinion.

Huaxia Energy Network (public number hxny3060) learned that on May 8, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Public Solicitation of Opinions on the Standard Conditions and Announcement Management Measures for the Lithium Battery Industry (Draft for Comments)". On the "Lithium Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2024)" (hereinafter referred to as "Standard Conditions"), "Lithium Battery Industry Standard Announcement Management Measures (2024)" (hereinafter referred to as "Management Measures") (draft for comments) Public comments.

In the above-mentioned draft for comments, the focus is on the production capacity, technology and performance of the lithium battery industry, which is also interpreted by industry insiders as the "supply-side policy" of the lithium battery industry ".

the "standard conditions" focus on: enterprises should have the independent production, sales and service capabilities of related products in the lithium battery industry; The annual cost for research and development and process improvement shall not be less than 3% of the main business income, and the main products shall have technical invention patents. At the time of declaration, the actual output of the previous year shall not be less than 50% of the actual production capacity of the same year.

At the same time, the "Specifications" also clarified the performance standards of lithium-related products. Among them, the requirements for energy storage lithium batteries are:

"single cell energy density ≥ 155Wh/kg, battery energy density ≥ 110Wh/kg; Single cell cycle life ≥ 6000 times and capacity retention rate ≥ 80%, battery cycle life ≥ 5000 times and capacity retention rate ≥ 80%."

clear rectification of "overcapacity"

In recent years, due to the rapid growth of new energy electric vehicles, the lithium battery industry has been booming. Power lithium batteries were once in short supply, and even caused complaints about "vehicle companies working for lithium battery companies. However, this situation did not last long. As major lithium battery companies expand their production capacity, power lithium batteries have changed from "supply in short supply" to "oversupply", and production capacity is facing the risk of excess.

But with a large number of blind investment and projects, the energy storage industry has grown savagely, and the industry has become a "flood pool" for excess capacity of power lithium batteries. A large number of lithium batteries have flocked to the energy storage industry, which has promoted the energy storage industry. Rapid development. At the same time, with the decline in upstream lithium carbonate prices, further stimulate the expansion of lithium battery capacity.

battery network statistics show that in the first half of 2023, 182 of the 223 investment expansion projects including the entire battery industry chain statistics announced the investment amount, with a total investment of more than 937.7 billion yuan. Among them, 40 projects have an investment of more than 10 billion yuan, and among the 40 tens of billions of investment projects, 23 projects are in the battery field, accounting for more than half. Of the 23 battery projects, 3 more have invested more than 30 billion yuan.

but by the second half of 2023, with the energy storage industry downstream demand slowing down, superimposed on the lithium battery manufacturers before the expansion of capacity concentrated release, the lithium battery industry overcapacity phenomenon is becoming increasingly prominent.

for example, a few days ago, Hunan yuneng (SZ:301358), the leader of positive electrode materials, said in an announcement that the company's excess capacity of lithium iron phosphate would not be cleared until 2025 to 2026.

The overcapacity of the lithium battery industry chain has led to a sharp drop in product prices at the market end. Data show that in 2023, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the price of lithium carbonate dropped by about 70%, the price of electrolyte dropped by more than 60%, the square power cell (lithium iron phosphate) dropped from 0.82 yuan/Wh to 0.43 yuan/Wh, the square power cell (ternary) dropped from 0.92 yuan/Wh to 0.52 yuan/Wh, the energy storage cell dropped from 0.9 yuan/watt-hour to below 0.4 yuan/watt-hour, and by this year, most of these prices continue to fall.

The consequence of overcapacity is the intensification of knockout rounds.

since 2024, many lithium battery industry chain enterprises have begun to terminate their investment and construction projects. for example, in the field of lithium iron phosphate materials, huiyun titanium industry (SZ:300891), yuntianhua (SH:600096), wanrun new energy (SH:688275) and lily flower (SH:603823) have successively stopped the construction of related projects in salt pond.

Now, with the introduction of policies such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Standard Conditions", more companies may implement production cuts or terminate production expansion, and the problem of overcapacity in the lithium battery industry chain may be alleviated.

Technological innovation or new development

It is worth mentioning that for the overcapacity of the lithium battery industry chain, the industry is more recognized as "structural overcapacity", which means that low-end lithium products are surplus, but high-end lithium products are insufficient.

In the "Standard Conditions" and other policies issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, while advocating "reducing energy production", it also guides lithium battery companies to strengthen technological innovation.

For example, the "Regulations" propose that (enterprises) spend no less than 3% of their main business income on research and development and process improvement each year, and encourage enterprises to obtain the qualifications of independent research and development institutions, engineering laboratories, technology centers or high-tech enterprises at or above the provincial level. Encourage enterprises to create green factories; Encourage enterprises to build themselves or participate in the joint construction of pilot platforms; The main products have patents for technological inventions.

The "Standard Conditions" also proposes that enterprises should adopt advanced technology, energy saving and environmental protection, safe and stable, and highly intelligent production processes and equipment, and put forward specific requirements for each link of the industrial chain.

in fact, regarding the problem of "overcapacity at the low end and insufficient capacity at the high end", as early as the end of 2022, when there were signs of overcapacity in power batteries, Liu jincheng, founder of yiwei lithium energy (SZ:300014), once proposed that battery products with high quality and cost advantages would not be surplus.

It is worth mentioning that with the increasing popularity of electric vehicles and energy storage has become an important part of the new power system, the requirements for lithium batteries are getting higher and higher, and it is also forcing the entire industry chain to innovate. To meet the high-end demand downstream.

For example, whether it is an energy storage battery or a power battery, downstream companies have higher and higher requirements for energy density. This trend is also reflected in the "Specification Conditions.

"specification conditions" proposes that for large-power lithium batteries, the energy density of energy-type single cells using ternary materials (lithium nickel cobalt manganate) is ≥ 230Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs is ≥ 165Wh/kg; The energy density of energy-type single cells using lithium iron phosphate and other materials is ≥ 165Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs is ≥ 120Wh/kg.

Energy storage type lithium battery, single battery energy density ≥ 155Wh/kg, battery energy density ≥ 110Wh/kg. The corresponding values of the above energy density in the "Lithium Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2021)" are 210Wh/kg, 150Wh/kg, 160Wh/kg, 115Wh/kg, 145Wh/kg, and 100Wh/kg, respectively.

To this end, both lithium battery materials companies and battery manufacturers should focus more on innovation and increase their efforts in the future.

At present, most companies have realized this problem and have achieved obvious results in innovation.

For example, in order to increase the energy density, in the lithium iron phosphate technology route, manganese, lithium and other technologies have been applied, in the ternary lithium technology route, the proportion of high nickel ternary continues to rise, is gradually becoming the mainstream. Preliminary statistics show that many positive leaders such as Hunan Yuneng, German Nanometer (SZ:300769) and Dangsheng Technology (SZ:300073) have been deployed in the field of ferromanganese phosphate, while enterprises such as Ningde Times (SZ:300750) and Zhongchuang Xinhang (HK:03931) have made rapid progress in lithium supplement technology. Rongbai Technology Ni90 system has entered the stage of mass production, and the third generation ultra-high nickel Ni92-96 is being developed with customers.

Some people in the industry said that after the formal implementation of policies such as "standard conditions", the innovation trend of the domestic lithium battery industry will usher in a small peak.