pictures from Longji green energy official website

from the "sneaking" product specification to the pre-release synchronized with the annual report, and then to the preheating for several days, the new product of Longji green energy (601012.SH) BC component, which has been hotly discussed for nearly half a month, has finally come out. At the same time, aixu shares (600732.SH), another battery leader taking BC route, also claimed that the production efficiency would be upgraded to a new level, higher than TOPCon the market. Does this mean that BC, which is currently at a disadvantage in the dispute over the photovoltaic N-type technology route, has a chance to "turn the table against the wind"?

Longji's new battery record and component products

on may 7, local time in Spain, longji held a press conference in Madrid, announcing that the photoelectric conversion efficiency of its independently developed HBC battery reached 27.3 , and passed the certification of german hamelin solar energy research institute (ISFH), once again set a new record for the conversion efficiency of single crystalline silicon battery .

It is worth mentioning that LONGi has achieved remarkable results in "breaking the world record" in recent years. In November 2022, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the company's HJT battery reached 26.81. At that time, Martin Green, a professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, known as the "Godfather of Photovoltaic", was invited to announce through video connection that the result had set a new global record for the conversion efficiency of silicon-based solar cells. Many organizations also confirmed that this result was after Japanese company Kaneka raised the efficiency record of single crystalline silicon cells to 26.7 in 2017, the latest record, which was born after a lapse of five years, is also the first time in the history of photovoltaic development that a Chinese company has created a world record for the efficiency of crystalline silicon cells. In December 2023, Longji used the "same model" HBC battery to raise the record to 27.09 percent, and this year's record will come in the first half of the year. In addition, at present, there are more than one organization in the world that can carry out battery conversion efficiency certification, statistical collection and release battery efficiency records, including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States and Martin Green's "Solar Cell Efficiency Table". The statistics of various organizations are different. Longji's three records are all certified by ISFH, and last year's records are also included by the above-mentioned organizations. However, in NREL's "Maximum Research and Development Efficiency Map of Solar Cells", the highest conversion efficiency of a single-cell crystalline silicon cell is currently 27.6, which was set by Amonix, an American company, in 2007. However, it is a so-called "high-efficiency point contact suede silicon concentrator cell", which is divided into Single crystal(concentrator), I .e. a small category of concentrator photovoltaic cells. There has been no relevant test record in the past 20 years, longji HBC's previous 27.09 percent conversion efficiency (recorded at 27.1 percent in the table, which has not been updated to this year's latest record) is the highest among single-crystal silicon cells (Crystalline Si Cells).

NREL's various types of photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency records, the blue mark shows all the records in the classification of single crystalline silicon cells (Crystalline Si Cells)

Compared with the battery conversion efficiency record, the new generation of component products Hi-MO 9 released by Longji this time is undoubtedly more concerned by the industry. As early as April 25, a rather mysterious Longji Hi-MO 9 product specification was circulated on the network, in which the conversion efficiency of components as high as 24.4 percent caused heated discussion. At the annual report, quarterly report and performance presentation meeting released on April 29, Longji announced in a high profile that it would release new components in Europe on May 7 (European time), and said that the efficiency and power of this product have obvious advantages over the current mainstream TOPCon components. At the official launch of the new product, Longji also disclosed more detailed data. according to the company's introduction, this Hi-MO 9 module is equipped with HPBC 2.0 technology, uses Longji's own high quality terui silicon wafer, and combines Longji's innovative self-developed composite passivation technology, with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 24.43%, which can be described as a product of the company's cutting-edge technology .

from the perspective of conversion efficiency, the data currently disclosed by this product does have obvious advantages. at present, the conversion efficiency of Longji HPBC generation mass production components is between 22.6 and 23%, and the conversion efficiency of TOPCon leading components such as jingke energy (688223.SH) and jingao technology (002459.SZ) is between 22.27 and 23.3, which is 1% different from Hi-MO 9, zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Green Energy, said publicly at the performance conference that this is expected to be the last time that crystalline silicon technology will achieve an efficiency improvement of more than 1%. After that, it will rely on new technologies such as crystalline silicon-perovskite lamination to improve efficiency. However, the mass production capacity, applicability, cost performance and market performance of BC products have not yet been questioned . some people in the industry commented that compared with TOPCon, which has gradually occupied the market and has taken the initiative in "n-type substitution", BC wants to catch up with or even surpass it in a short period of time, which is very difficult. According to the data disclosed by Longji's financial report, the company's HPBC component products have been shipped significantly since this year, reaching 4.75GW in the first quarter and 2GW in March and April. However, the shipment of N-type TOPCon components by TOPCon leader Jingke reached 48.41GW last year (mostly in the fourth quarter of 3.). The shipment in the first quarter of this year is expected to be 15GW-16GW, and the shipment in the second quarter is expected to be as high as 24GW-26GW, far exceeding Longji's BC products. At the press conference, Longji announced that Hi-MO 9 is expected to realize large-scale mass production in the fourth quarter of this year. However, the specific production capacity data has not yet been determined and disclosed. There are also views that under the circumstances of accidental events such as the fire in Jingke Shanxi Base and the fierce competition within TOPCon camp, the differential advantage in efficiency may help Longji "bring back a city" if it can be matched with the rapid release of mass production capacity ".

Ai Xu's "swing" and "wild hope"

while longji held a high-profile new product launch conference, another BC leader aixu was also "not to be outdone". on may 6 and 7, a video entitled "creating the road of n-type BC mass production technology and entering the new technology era of photovoltaic industry" was released through official micro-blog (divided into the first and second parts). In a video with a total length of more than 5 minutes, Aixu Chairman Chen Gang said that the average mass production efficiency of Aixu BC batteries is planned to reach 27.5 this year and will further impact 28% in the future. In terms of components, Aixu expects the mass production efficiency to reach 24.8-25% in the third quarter. The relevant figures are even higher than Longji, which has aroused concern and discussion in the industry.

In terms of photovoltaic cells, Aixu is one of the world's leaders. In 2023, shipments ranked second in the world after Tongwei, but the vast majority of them are still PERC batteries. In terms of BC technology, Aixu is also one of the earliest BC mass production researchers in China. According to the disclosure of its financial report, the highest conversion efficiency of ABC battery research and development of the company has reached 27.35, and the average conversion efficiency of mass production has also reached 26.8, which is higher than the previous record announced by Longji. However, Aixu did not disclose whether the relevant results have been certified by international authoritative organizations, it is also not currently included in the statistics of NREL and other agencies. For this, we can see the reason from Chen Gang's original words in the video: "Ai Xu has an unwritten habit. Everyone disdains to apply for the world record. Instead, we take the average production efficiency on the production line every day as the pursuit goal. We have now reached 27% of the average production efficiency of batteries".

in fact, aixu started the construction of its first phase of ABC battery production line in 2022. by last year, the production capacity had been gradually released. however, is different from the previous "selling batteries for a living" in the field of PERC, aixu obviously has greater expectations for this new technology, that is, "making components, sell components" .

according to the financial report previously released by aixu, the company promoted the landing of the n-type ABC module ecological business in 2023 and achieved phased results. its ABC module mass production and delivery conversion efficiency reached 24.2, and it passed the certification of the German TV group. in the "global efficiency list of high-efficiency mass production photovoltaic modules" released in TaiyangNews, the company has been at the top of the list since March 2023. In addition, the company also disclosed that as of March this year, the sales scale of various agreements signed by its ABC component products has exceeded 10GW. Of course, this is the statistics from the perspective of orders. In the production line data disclosed in the financial report, the current production capacity of Aixu ABC components is 2.08GW, while the design capacity is 25GW. The expected production time is from January 2024 to June 2025.

as a terminal product for power stations, components are the most direct link driven by the growth of photovoltaic demand. at present, photovoltaic enterprises with revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan have vertical layout in the fields of batteries and components. At the technical level, the threshold for component production is not high for battery manufacturers, but the market competition in this field is often more intense. Titanium Media APP believes that Aixu relies on BC to increase the layout of its component business. On the one hand, it wants to promote the company's further expansion under the background of high rigid demand for global photovoltaic demand. On the other hand, it is also conducive to diversified layout, flattening battery costs and improving profitability. However, under the background of the continuous decline in global component prices, BC components with high prices are still difficult to make profits for aixu. according to the company's financial report, its ABC components currently realize operating income of 0.598 billion yuan, but the gross profit margin is -5.16 (the overall gross profit margin of the company's main business is 16.43), and the capacity utilization rate is only 53.61 (for comparison, the component capacity utilization rate disclosed in Longji's annual report is 72.2 and that of Jingke is 88.16). However, if we only look at efficiency, Aixu's claim of 24.8-25% component efficiency in the third quarter is higher than Longji Hi-MO 9 and far better than the current TOPCon mainstream products. However, the titanium media APP observed and inquired about some feedback from the industry. At present, many people said that they would take a wait-and-see attitude towards the final situation of Aixu products. There are also views that the application scenarios of different component products are different. Considering factors such as cost performance, before going through the market test, only looking at the value of conversion efficiency can not get a meaningful conclusion.

image from Aixu shares 2023 annual report

In addition, it is worth mentioning that Aixu has continued to expand TOPCon production capacity this year, and has been questioned by investors as "swaying" in the technical route ". Titanium media APP combed and found that Aixu announced on March 12 that it would upgrade the PERC battery capacity of Yiwu base to TOPCon battery capacity at a cost of 2.715 billion yuan. The project is planned to start in April 2024 and will be put into production in the second half of this year. On March 18, it was announced that it plans to invest in the first phase of 15GW TOPCon battery capacity in Chuzhou, Anhui Province. In response, some people in the industry commented that doing business is to make money. From this perspective, as long as "swing" can bring benefits, there is nothing wrong with it. In fact, Longji also expanded TOPCon (titanium media APP check before announcing All in BC in a high profile.For February 2023), this part of the production capacity is still high hopes. Moreover, as Aixu, which has a large amount of PERC capacity, it should be wise to transform PERC into TOPCon with a significantly lower cost method at a time of "intergenerational change. Aixu itself has also said that the current N-type has rapidly replaced the P-type as the mainstream demand in the market. Customers have also expressed their urgent desire to purchase TOPCon batteries. The company will also "lay out ABC and TOPCon to go hand in hand to meet the N-type era". At present, Aixu is planning for N-type, the pattern of updating PERC batteries to TOPCon batteries and developing mass-produced BC batteries and components will continue for a longer period of time.

however, judging from the annual report, BC's two signboard companies are not having a good time at present. longji's revenue in 2023 increased only slightly by 0.39 year on year, while its net profit attributable to its parent fell by 27.41. in the first quarter of this year, it suffered a loss of 2.35 billion yuan (mainly affected by impairment provision). Aixu's revenue in 2023 fell 22.54 year on year, its net profit attributable to its parent fell 67.54 year on year, and lost 91.217 million yuan in the first quarter. In contrast, TOPCon's leading Jingke Energy and Trina Solar (688599.SH) maintained a growth rate of more than 30% in revenue and net profit last year (Jingke's net profit grew by as much as 153.2 year-on-year). Although the performance declined in the first quarter of this year, it still maintained its profit, and the situation was much more optimistic.

however, looking at the financial reports, performance meetings and related publicity of various companies, we can also find that TOPCon camp prefers to use the present tense to talk about the rapid development of the current market share, while enterprises betting on BC prefer to use the future tense to show confidence. zhong baoshen said at the recent performance presentation that it is expected that the vast majority of photovoltaic cells on the market will be BC technology in the next five years. The BC camp's "pre-publicity" of this "turnaround", whether it can land to see the real chapter, and when to blow the horn of counterattack, has become the latest focus of the dispute over photovoltaic technology routes. ( Author | Hu Jiameng , Editor | Liu Yangxue )