-original title: foresee 2024: "panoramic map of China's carbon fiber industry in 2024" (with market status, competition pattern and development trend, etc.)

major listed companies in the industry: zhongfu eagle (688295); Guangwei compound material (300699); Golden hair technology (600143); Jilin Chemical Fiber (000420); Jiangsu Hengshen (832397); Zhongjian Technology (300777), etc.

The core data of this article: China's carbon fiber production capacity; China's carbon fiber production; China's carbon fiber demand

Industry Overview

-- Definition and Classification

Carbon fiber (CF) refers to a fiber material with a carbon content of more than 90%, which can be made by carbonizing organic fibers such as viscose, polyacrylonitrile and pitch at high temperatures. High-strength and high-modulus CF is mainly formed by carbonization of polyacrylonitrile filaments at high temperatures above 1000°C. After being compounded with resin, metal, ceramics, carbon, glass, etc., it has high modulus, high strength, light weight, fatigue resistance, and corrosion resistance. It is widely used in aerospace, aviation, military industry, navigation, chemical industry, electronics, construction, sports and leisure and other fields. It is a high-tech fiber for both military and civilian use.

At present, most countries classify carbon fiber according to their habits, and there are roughly the following three classification methods:

(1) Classification according to raw materials: polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based; Pitch-based (isotropic, mesophase); Adhesive-based.

(2) Classified according to manufacturing conditions and methods: carbon fiber (800-1600 ℃); graphite fiber (2000-3000 ℃); oxidized fiber (preoxygenated wire 200-300 ℃); activated carbon fiber; vapor grown carbon fiber.

(3) classified by mechanical properties: general grade (GP); High performance (HP); The period includes medium strength (MT), high strength (HT), ultra high strength (UHT), medium model (IM), high model (HM) and ultra high model (UHM). Carbon fiber in the application is mostly used as a reinforcing material and the use of its excellent mechanical properties, so the use of more is classified according to its mechanical properties, it is generally believed that the tensile strength of the fiber is less than 1400MPa, the tensile modulus is less than 140GPa, then this belongs to the general-purpose carbon fiber category. In the category of high-performance carbon fiber, there is no strict distinction between medium strength, medium mode, high strength, high mode, ultra-high strength and ultra-high mode.

-- Industry chain analysis: Industry chain covers a wide range of fields

The production process of carbon fiber is complex. From carbon fiber spinning, pre-oxidation, carbonization to composite material molding to terminal applications, it needs to go through a composite and long process. Carbon fiber composite materials are widely used in aerospace, wind turbine blades, automobiles, sports and leisure, mixed molding, cable cores, building materials, pressure vessels, ships, carbon-carbon composites, electronic appliances and other fields.

Industry development history: The industry is in a stage of rapid development

China's carbon fiber industry started in the 1960 s, almost at the same time as Japan, the United States and other countries, but due to the lack of relevant knowledge reserves, intellectual property ownership and other issues, the development is slow. At the same time, Japan, the United States and other countries have formed a monopoly on the core technology of carbon fiber. my country's carbon fiber production technology and equipment level lags behind foreign countries as a whole, and its development has stagnated for a long period of time, unable to meet the needs of high-end fields such as national major equipment.

Since 2000, the state has increased its support for independent innovation in the field of carbon fiber, and has listed carbon fiber as a key research and development project. With the strong support of national policies, the domestic carbon fiber industry has made major breakthroughs in technology, the degree of industrialization has been rapidly improved, and the application field has been continuously expanded. At present, the region has formed a carbon fiber gathering place mainly in Jiangsu, Shandong and Jilin.

Industry policy background: policy support for the development of carbon fiber industry

National policy as a catalyst for industrial development, in recent years, the state has continued to issue relevant policies to promote the healthy and orderly development of carbon fiber. It can be seen from the national policy plan that the country promotes and applies carbon fiber as a new material, and continues to guide the development of domestic carbon fiber. It plans to form a number of large carbon fiber enterprise groups with international competitiveness and a number of strong innovation capabilities, distinctive characteristics, and industrial chains. Perfect carbon fiber and its composite materials industrial cluster area. With the support of the policy in the future, the related technology of China's carbon fiber industry will be close to the international level.

Industry development status

-- Supply: China Becomes World's Largest Productivity Country

The start of China's carbon fiber industry can be traced back to 1962, so far it has been developed for more than 60 years, only 3 years later than the world's carbon fiber; but whether it is R & D results or manufacturing processes, there is still a certain gap between China and developed countries.

In 2021, mainland China surpassed the United States for the first time to become the world's largest producer, with a production capacity of 63400 tons, accounting for more than 30% of the world's total production capacity. In 2023, the domestic carbon fiber industry continued to expand production at a high speed, with a total production capacity of 120200 tons.

In terms of production, China's carbon fiber production continued to grow in 2023, but the growth rate slowed down. In 2023, domestic carbon fiber production was about 54600 tons, up 14.81 percent year-on-year.

-- Demand: Sports and leisure become the biggest demand area

Generally speaking, in the early years, when the global carbon fiber supply was insufficient, the United States, Japan and other countries imposed export restrictions on China, which led to the long-term suppression of China's carbon fiber demand. In recent years, due to domestic technological breakthroughs, the demand for carbon fiber has been stimulated. The demand for carbon fiber in my country has been increasing. In 2023, the apparent consumption of carbon fiber in China reached 63800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.55.

in 2023, the top three areas of domestic carbon fiber demand will be sports leisure, wind turbine blades and carbon-carbon composites, accounting for 26.24, 25.13 and 11.94 respectively, while the demand in other areas will account for less than 10%. Under the development trend of large size of offshore wind turbine blades, it is expected that the demand for carbon fiber in the field of wind turbine blades will continue to increase.

Industry Competition Pattern

-Regional competition pattern: Northeast China is the largest carbon fiber production area

From the perspective of production areas, Northeast China, Northwest China and East China are the main carbon fiber enterprise gathering places and also the main producing areas; while North China, Central China and other regions account for a relatively small proportion of production, accounting for only 4.67 of the national output.%.

-Enterprise competition pattern: Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Eagle are the leading enterprises in the industry

at present, the first echelon of carbon fiber enterprises in China include Jilin chemical fiber and zhongfu eagle, which have a carbon fiber precursor production capacity of more than 25000 tons and a carbon fiber production capacity of more than 10000 tons. The second echelon enterprises include Jiangsu Hengshen and Guangwei compound materials, which have a carbon fiber precursor production capacity of more than 10000 tons and a carbon fiber production capacity of more than 5000 tons. The third echelon of enterprises include copper and copper, this type of enterprise carbon fiber precursor and carbon fiber production capacity of about 5000 tons.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

-- The market is moving towards a healthy and healthy development path

Today, the overall technology of the carbon fiber industry is still immature and stable, and the product quality and cost performance are relatively low. However, with the continuous breakthrough of China's high-end carbon fiber technology and the development of production to scale and stability, the enterprise layout gradually extends to the downstream application field of high value-added, China's carbon fiber industry will gradually realize import substitution, enterprise profitability is expected to gradually recover, the market to a healthy development path.

Especially in the "Made in China 2025" officially released by the State Council, the overall deployment of the transformation, upgrading and leapfrog development of my country's manufacturing industry has been made, the strategic tasks and priorities of building a manufacturing power have been clarified, and 10 major advantages and strategic industries have been selected as Breakthrough points, and strive to reach the international leading position or international advanced level by 2025. Among them, carbon fiber and composite materials are included in the national key development of strategic emerging industries.

-- The development of new carbon fiber products in the direction of high stability and high-end

Prospective Industry Research Institute predicts that the carbon fiber industry will have the following development trends:

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the China Carbon Fiber Industry Market Outlook and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report by the Prospective Industry Research Institute.

at the same time, the prospective industrial research institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment promotion, industrial mapping, intelligent investment promotion system, industry status certificate, IPO consultation/feasibility study of fund-raising and investment, and application of specialized and special new small giants. Citing the contents of this article in any public disclosure such as the prospectus and the company's annual report requires formal authorization from the Prospective Industry Research Institute.