Investment Points:

National Railway Group: The operating performance is stable and good, supporting the growth of fixed asset investment. According to the official website of the State Railway Group, in 23 years, the State Railway Group achieved operating income of 1245.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5 percent over the same period last year, and a net profit of 3.3 billion yuan, turning around losses over the same period last year; 24Q1, the State Railway Group achieved operating income of 283.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2 percent over the same period last year, and its operating performance continued to improve steadily. According to the statistics of the State Railway Administration and the State Railway Group, from January to May of 24 years, the national railway completed investment in fixed assets of 228.47 billion billion yuan, an increase of 10.8 percent over the same period last year, and the construction of a modern railway infrastructure system was accelerated.

passenger volume: from January to may of 24 years, the national railway sent 1.73 billion passengers, up 20.2 year on year.

according to the official micro of the national railway group, from January to may, the national railway operated 10463 passenger trains per day, an increase of 1174 trains or 12.7 percent over the same period last year. on may 1, 20.693 million passengers were sent, a record high in a single day. High-speed rail speed, price adjustment landing, is expected to effectively improve the attendance rate. According to the official micro of the national railway group, on June 15, the national railway implemented a new train operation map, arranging 12690 passenger trains, 205 more than the current map; 22595 freight trains were operated, 74 more than the current map. The Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway has realized the operation of Fuxing EMU trains at a high speed of 350 kilometers per hour, increasing the overall transportation capacity by 4.2. At the same time, the announced fares of EMU trains running at speeds of 300 kilometers per hour and above on the Wuhan-Guangzhou section of the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed rail, the Shanghai-Kunming high-speed rail Shanghai-Hangzhou section, the Shanghai-Kunming high-speed rail Hangzhou-Hangzhou section, and the Hangzhou-Shenzhen high-speed rail Hangzhou-Ningbo section will be optimized and adjusted, and a flexible pricing mechanism will be established. Promote passenger flow growth through the implementation of discount floating policies.

freight volume: benefit shipping prices rise, container transport growth is obvious, 24 years in May railway freight volume began to turn positive year-on-year. According to the official micro of the National Railway Group, the national railway sent 0.337 billion tons of goods in May, +2.8 percent year-on-year, reversing the decline in freight volume in February-April; the average daily loading of 180500 cars, +3.0 percent year-on-year. Among them, containers sent 70.95 million tons of goods, +20.0 percent year-on-year, and China-Europe trains opened 1724 trains, sending goods 186000 standard containers, + 14% and 13% year-on-year, respectively, a record high in a single month.

passenger demand to ensure the demand for motor cars, 24 years of national railway first motor car tender has exceeded 23 years of the whole year. According to the rail world, the 24-year EMU bidding 165 includes the 350-kilometer-per-hour Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU (8 units) and 132 units. The speed of 350 kilometers per hour Fuxing intelligent configuration alpine EMU (8 units), the number of 13 groups; The speed of 350 kilometers per hour Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU (17 units), the number of 20 groups (10 columns), it has exceeded the 164 number of EMU tenders for the whole year of 23 years, of which the first tender for the 23-year EMU was in the 103 group (up about 60% year-on-year).

the demand for equipment renewal and upgrading locomotives is expected to complete the elimination of nearly 10,000 diesel locomotives in 2027. On February 28, 24, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on Chinese-style modernization of high-quality transportation development services and pointed out that my country's railway carbon emissions mainly come from diesel locomotives. At present, there are nearly 10,000 diesel locomotives undertaking transportation tasks and will accelerate Promote the promotion and application of new energy locomotives, and strive to achieve the basic elimination of old diesel locomotives by 2027.

investment advice:

in the national railway passenger volume, freight volume upward, the national railway group profitability improvement background, combined with equipment renewal policy support, we believe that the national railway equipment investment is expected to increase, motor cars, locomotive demand is expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to China's medium car (601766.SH), Times Electric (688187.SH), Times New Material (600458.SH), Thinking Column Control (603508.SH).

Risk Warning: The growth of national railway passenger traffic is less than expected, the growth of freight volume is less than expected, the investment of national railway is less than expected, and the bidding of railway equipment is less than expected.