July power equipment export data tracking: transformer demand continues to weaken month-on-month
DATE:  Aug 29 2024

Event: Recently, the General Administration of Customs released export data for July, and the export of electrical equipment continued to boom.

Transformer exports increased year-on-year in a single month. transformer exports in July were 3.98 billion yuan, an increase of 27.8% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 4.3%; From January to July, the total export was 24.46 billion yuan, an increase of 26.9% year-on-year. In terms of year-on-year growth by region from January to July, Asia (+18%)/Europe (+57%)/Africa (+25%)/Latin America (+9%)/North America (+47%)/Oceania (+25%). From January to July, Asia accounted for 48% of exports> 21% of Europe> 11% >Latin America 10% of North America.

In July, transformer exports were eye-catching, and the year-on-year growth rate in Europe and North America was higher. In July, Europe increased 810 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54% and a monthly increase of 18%, thanks to the continuous increase of 130 million yuan in Spain, and the increase of 600 million yuan and 500 million yuan in Slovenia and Netherlands; North America 520 million yuan, up 55% year-on-year and 26% month-on-month, thanks to United States' year-on-year increase of 150 million yuan, maintaining the trend of month-on-month growth; Asian exports of 1.73 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, down 12% month-on-month, because Saudi Arabia decreased by 170 million yuan and Bangladesh decreased by 150 million yuan; Latin America 540 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month, thanks to Mexico's 120 million yuan increase and Chile's increase of 70 million yuan; Africa 320 million yuan, up 25% year-on-year and 49% month-on-month. Thanks to Morocco's increase of 80 million yuan and South Africa's growth of 50 million yuan.

Monthly exports weakened month-on-month. The export of electricity meters in July was 960 million yuan, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year and a decrease of 17.6% month-on-month; From January to July, the total export was 6.21 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year. From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of sub-regions was Asia (+28%)/Europe (-20%)/Africa (+36%)/Latin America (-1%)/North America (+10%)/Oceania (-21%). From January to July, Asia accounted for 35% of exports> 30% of Europe> 28% of Africa, totaling more than 93%.

In July, the export of electricity meters fell, and the year-on-year growth rate of the region was bright. In July, the export demand for electricity meters decreased by 17.6% month-on-month compared with June. In July, Oceania was 30 million yuan, up 115% year-on-year and 13% year-on-year, thanks to Australia's 0.03 billion yuan; North America's exports were 0.05 billion yuan, up 108% year-on-year, up 45% month-on-month, and Canada was up 0.01 million yuan year-on-year. However, due to the small base of North America and Oceania, even if the two regions are better than the same period last year, their contribution to China's global meter exports is still limited. Africa 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, a year-on-year bright thanks to Burkina Faso, Kenya each increased by 300 million yuan; Latin America 040 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, a decrease of 42%, because Argentina decreased by 200 million yuan; Asian exports of 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, the total export value is second only to Africa, mainly due to the high export to Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan, The month-on-month weakening was mainly due to the decrease of 40 million yuan in Bangladesh and 200 million yuan in Malaysia; 300 million yuan in Europe, up 20% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month, of which Spain, Slovenia and Netherlands each increased by 130 million yuan, 60 million yuan and 50 million yuan, while Belgium and United Kingdom each decreased 50 million yuan and 40 million yuan. The penetration rate of smart meters in Northern Europe remains high, and the focus of smart meter promotion in Europe will shift from Northern Europe and Western Europe to Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe in the future.

Investment suggestions: The global power grid investment is booming, and the IEA estimates that the power grid investment is expected to double by more than 600 billion US dollars in 2030, and smart meters and transformers are expected to enjoy the dividends of going overseas. It is recommended to pay attention to Haixing Power (603556. SH), Samsung Healthcare (601567. SH), Linyang Energy (601222. SH), Xu Ji Electric (000400. SZ), Dongfang Electronics (000682. SZ), Kinpan Technology (688676. SH), Huaming Equipment (002070. SZ), Sieyuan Electric (002028. SZ)。

Risk warning: the risk that the construction of the power grid is less than expected; the risk of declining earnings due to increased competition in the industry; Risks posed by geopolitics.

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