Today's A-share opening generally corrected, with the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) falling 5%. In terms of constituent stocks, Bethany (300957) led the decline by more than 8%, Bloomage Biotech (688363) fell by more than 7%, Arowana, Jinshiyuan, and Gujing Gongjiu fell by more than 6%, and Tomson Beijian, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao were among the top decliners.

In terms of popular ETFs, the largest consumer ETF (159928) fell by more than 5%, with the latest price of 0.873 yuan, and the intraday turnover has exceeded 400 million yuan, ranking first in the same category, with a turnover rate of more than 3.3%.

In the long run, as of October 8, 2024, consumer ETFs have risen by 30.06% in the past two weeks.

In terms of scale, the latest scale of consumer ETFs reached 12.924 billion yuan, a record high, ranking 1/5 of comparable funds.

In terms of shares, the latest share of consumer ETFs reached 14.039 billion shares, a record high, ranking 1/5 of comparable funds.

In terms of turnover, the single-day turnover of consumer ETFs yesterday was 3.117 billion yuan, a record high, ranking 1/5 of comparable funds.

From the perspective of net inflow of funds, consumer ETFs have received continuous net inflows in the past 7 days, with the highest single-day net inflow of 1.624 billion yuan, with a total of 3.710 billion yuan and an average daily net inflow of 530 million yuan.

The data shows that leveraged funds continue to be deployed. Consumer ETFs have been net bought by leveraged funds for 4 consecutive days, with the highest single day net buying of 178 million yuan, and the latest financing balance reached 407 million yuan.

From the perspective of valuation, the latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI Major Consumer Index tracked by the consumer ETF is only 26.38 times, which is at the quantile of 19.09% in the past three years, that is, the valuation is lower than the time of more than 80.91% in the past three years, which is at a historical low.

Hua Chuang Securities said that the resilience of National Day consumption is still there, slightly better than the previous month, and it still needs to be further implemented and transmitted by the policy. The macro policy turned sharply before the holiday, and residents' expectations and confidence improved. The year-on-year level was flat, and the summer consumption and Mid-Autumn Festival consumption improved slightly, and the policy needs to be further implemented. The price and dynamic sales of ultra-high-end Moutai have improved, and the dynamic sales of leading brands with a high proportion of banquets in the public price range have performed relatively well, and Moutai has strengthened its control over the delivery rhythm, and the batch price of Feitian FCL has increased by about 50 yuan to 2,400 yuan.

Haitong Securities believes that the National Day travel data in 2024 will perform well, with an overall number of 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a recovery to 110.2% of 2019; Tourism revenue was 700.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, recovering to 107.9% in 2019. The recent policy mix is based on repairing household balance sheets, and consumer confidence is expected to gradually improve as asset prices stabilize and repair. In addition, the recent pro-consumption policies have been introduced, such as the support for consumer goods to trade in the old 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds in early August has all reached the local level, October 8 State Council Information Office press conference, the National Development and Reform Commission also once again emphasized the promotion of consumption to benefit the people's livelihood, the implementation of actions to boost consumption. With the further implementation and increase of subsequent fiscal policies and pro-consumption related policies, it is expected to promote the fundamental performance growth and valuation improvement of the consumer industry.

[Summary of CSI Major Consumer Indices].

As a rigid demand and domestic demand attribute sector in the major consumption sectors, the CSI Major Consumption Index has obvious profitability resilience through the economic cycle, and has experienced a relatively large correction in the early stage, and the negative expectations are fully expressed. In the long run, with the strengthening of income expectations and the stabilization of the unemployment rate, residents' savings are expected to be released, the leverage ratio of the residential sector may increase, and the potential for consumption growth is expected to increase.

As the ace product tracking the main consumer index of CSI, the consumer ETF (159928) is the largest consumer ETF in the whole market and the most liquid consumer ETF.

[One-click layout of liquor > animal husbandry and other rigid demand plates].

The largest and most liquid consumer ETF (159928) tracks the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) with 42 constituent stocks. As of September 27, the top ten constituent equity weights accounted for 69.39%, of which 5 liquor leading stocks (Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe shares) accounted for 37.67%, large pig farmers Muyuan shares, Wen's shares accounted for 13.95%, and other weighted stocks also include: dairy leader Yili shares (10.65%), condiment leader Haitian Flavor Industry (4.73%), and feed leader Haid Group (2.38%).

Source: CSI official website, 2024.9.27

Focus on the consumer sector, related products: consumer ETF (159928), over-the-counter feeder (Class A: 000248; Category C: 012857).

Risk Warning: Funds are risky, and investment should be cautious. Investors should read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Product Key Facts Statement and other legal documents to understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, especially the unique risks, and judge whether it is suitable for their own risk tolerance based on their own investment objectives, investment experience, asset status, etc. The fund manager undertakes to manage and use the fund assets in good faith, prudence and due diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable or the principal will not be lost. Consumer ETFs (159928) are higher risk level (R4) products, which are suitable for investors who are aggressive (C4) and above after the customer's risk level assessment. Investors should pay attention to the risks of indexation investment and the risk of constituting concentrated investment in the constituent stocks of the CSI Major Consumer Index, please pay attention to the risks of some index constituents with large weights and high concentrations, and please pay attention to the risks of indexed investment, ETF operation risks, and the unique risks of investing in specific varieties. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objectively displayed and enumerated by the constituent stocks of the index, and the information appearing in this article is for reference only, and investors must be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. Any opinions, analyses and forecasts contained in this article do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader.

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