Interface News reporter Chen Huidong

On October 25, the photovoltaic concept strengthened, the industry sector rose almost across the board, the photovoltaic equipment sector set off a rising tide, and many concepts such as photovoltaic glass, photovoltaic roof, silicon energy, perovskite cells, and HJT cells collectively rose.

As of the close of the day, LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438. SH), TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), Daqo Energy (688303. SH), Aiko Co., Ltd. (600732. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ), Junda (002866. SZ), GCL Integration (002506. SZ), Shuangliang Energy Conservation (600481. SH), Jinchen shares (603396. SH), Haiyou New Materials (688680. SH) and more than 10 other shares, JinkoSolar (688223. SH), Risen Energy (300118. SZ), Trina Solar (688599. SH), Canadian Solar (688472. SH) and other top gainers.

As of the close of trading on October 25, PV ETF (159857) rose 9.6%, PV 50 ETF (159864) rose 9.7%, PV ETF (515790) rose 9.17%, PV ETF fund (159863) rose 8.71%, and PV leading ETF (159609) rose 9.36%.

Qi Haikun, executive vice president of Jinchen Co., Ltd., told Jian News reporters, "The future transformation of the technical risk of the photovoltaic industry will mainly be in the technological iteration of the cell sector, but it will not change much in the near future." At present, TOPCon is the mainstream, and BC technology still has some time to go. HJT and related stacking technologies are also on the way, so at this stage, it is difficult to say which battery technology will win again within a year. In the future, the possibility of differentiation of cell technology routes will increase. ”

Hou Bing, a veteran in the field of photovoltaic investment, told reporters, "At present, the industry as a whole is still in the stage of clearing production capacity, but most loss-making companies will not be able to support Q2 in 2026. He pointed out that the debt risk of the upstream and downstream accounts of the photovoltaic industry may be gradually exposed in 2025, which will not only greatly reduce the industry's fat monetary reserves, but also accelerate the process of clearing the industry. At the same time, it is also expected to receive policy support to promote fundamental changes in the photovoltaic industry.

According to the latest research report of Guojin Securities, polysilicon prices in the main industry chain remained stable, while downstream wafer prices were under pressure and polysilicon inventories were relatively high, resulting in a gradual increase in the market's bearish mentality. N-type wafer prices continued to fall, with limited demand for 18X, few orders, and high inventories. Cell prices remained stable, and companies were willing to rise, but downstream module price reduction costs were under pressure, wafer prices were loosened, cell price support weakened, and the upstream and downstream price game was deadlocked. Module prices have fallen, and module manufacturers are expected to have difficulty recovering in the short term due to fierce competition in order to quickly destock and recoup funds.

According to the research report of the machinery team of Zheshang Securities, on the supply side, polysilicon has the weakest capacity elasticity among the four major links of the photovoltaic industry. Demand side: On October 18, the Photovoltaic Industry Association estimated that the production cost (excluding transportation and miscellaneous expenses) of N-type M10 double-glass photovoltaic modules (excluding depreciation, silicon materials, silicon wafers, and cells excluding tax) of integrated enterprises in October was 0.68 yuan/W. The vicious negative feedback of low-price competition in the industry is expected to end, and the profit cycle of the industry is expected to improve. Photovoltaic equipment: the stage of the bottom of the industry has reached and entered the stage of grinding the bottom.

Wind data shows that among the photovoltaic stocks that have risen sharply, LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and TCL Zhonghuan have the highest losses in the first half of this year, and LONGi Green Energy has a net profit loss of 5.243 billion yuan.

In terms of asset-liability ratio, the asset-liability ratio of GCL Integration, Shuangliang Energy Conservation, Aiko Co., Ltd., Trina Solar, and Junda Co., Ltd. ranked "in the forefront", and the asset-liability ratio of GCL Integration was as high as 88.08%.

In terms of monetary funds, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and Canadian Solar have sufficient monetary funds on their books, all exceeding 10 billion yuan.

In terms of accounts receivable, the accounts receivable of LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar Technology and Trina Solar all exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the accounts receivable scale of Canadian Solar, Tongwei Co., Ltd., TCL Zhonghuan, Foster (603806. SH), Follett (601865. SH）。

Image source: Wind

Image widget

View original image 67K