This week, the Xinhua Overseas series of indices fluctuated and pulled back, and the performance of individual stocks was differentiated, among which Shanghai Electric (601727. SH), Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062. SZ), Wolong Electric Drive (600580. SH), Hisense Video (600060. SH) and other constituent stocks rose by more than 10% during the week, boosted by positive news and fundamental factors.

TMT goes overseas丨A-share semiconductor companies have frequent "good news".

With the advent of the singularity of "silicon-based strong intelligence", there is no suspense that the global semiconductor industry will usher in a strong recovery.

Global semiconductor sales are expected to exceed $600 billion in 2024 as the cyclical market downturn ends and demand for semiconductors is strong, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). Driven by the strong release of AI mobile phones and the peak season of traditional consumer electronics, the semiconductor market in the third quarter of 2024 performed particularly well, among which many companies in the global AI computing industry chain maintained strong growth.

Recently, a number of new chip products have been released, such as MediaTek released a new generation of Dimensity 9400 flagship chip, with advanced 3nm process and second-generation all-large core architecture design, powerful upgrade of GPU and NPU processors, showing powerful high intelligence, high performance, high energy efficiency, low power consumption characteristics. The "Snapdragon 8 Ultra" is equipped with the new Qualcomm Oryon CPU architecture, which increases GPU performance by 40% and NPU speed by 45%.

The economy has returned, and the competition in the industry has also intensified. The U.S. Commerce Department said it would allocate up to $1.6 billion to develop chip packaging technology in order to help the U.S. develop a "self-sufficient and profitable domestic advanced packaging industry."

According to Bloomberg data, the majority of the world's chip packaging capacity is concentrated in Asia, of which China's packaging capacity accounts for about 38% of the world's packaging, while the United States accounts for only 3%. In order to change this competitive landscape, the U.S. government has previously provided preferential policies to relevant companies, including Intel, SK, Samsung Electronics, etc., to attract them to set up chip packaging factories in the United States. It can be seen that packaging technology has become one of the important frontiers of the United States' semiconductor competition against China.

In terms of performance, China's semiconductor companies generally delivered satisfactory answers to investors in the third quarter of this year. As of October 31, among the 159 A-share listed companies in the semiconductor industry, except for SMIC (688981. SH) and Huahong Company (688347.SH) plan to disclose the third quarter performance report on November 8, the remaining 157 companies have completed the disclosure of the third quarter report, of which Changchuan Technology (300604.SZ) net profit soared 268 times, which greatly boosted market confidence.

Specifically, in the first three quarters, Changchuan Technology (300604. SZ) achieved a net profit of 357 million yuan, compared with a profit of only 1.33 million yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 26,859%; Goodix Technology Co., Ltd. (603160.HK) SH) net profit was 448 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3499%; Micro Semiconductor(688380.HK) SH) net profit of about 111 million yuan, a year-on-year turnaround, an increase of 1978%.

The reason why profitability as a whole has achieved such a substantial improvement is that the cyclical recovery of the industry is the main reason. A number of semiconductor companies clearly mentioned in their third-quarter performance reports that downstream demand has increased and the market has recovered since the beginning of this year.

In the first three quarters, the CIS leader Weir Co., Ltd. (603501.SH) achieved operating income of 18.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 545%. The company said that with the introduction of products in the high-end smartphone market and the continuous penetration of autonomous driving applications in the automotive market, the company's operating income and gross profit margin have achieved significant growth; In addition, in order to better cope with the impact of industrial fluctuations, the company actively promoted the optimization of product structure and supply chain structure, the gross profit margin of the company's products gradually recovered, and the overall performance increased significantly.

BOE A (000725.SZ), a constituent company of Xinhua TMT Overseas Preferred 50 Index, achieved a net profit of 3.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 224%. According to data from market research institutions, as a leading enterprise in the world's semiconductor display products, BOE's overall display shipments and LCD shipments in the five mainstream application fields rank first in the world. In the field of flexible display, BOE's shipments of flexible AMOLED products have also achieved further growth, and they have cooperated with Honor, OPPO, OnePlus, etc.

According to the data, BOE A (000725.SZ) is up 15.2% year-to-date.

The shortage of offshore wind production capacity in Europe shows a window of opportunity

The global offshore wind market is expected to start a new growth cycle.

According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), between 2024 and 2026, the new offshore wind capacity will reach 18GW, 23GW and 29GW, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28%.

In China, offshore wind projects experienced a relatively common delay between 2022 and 2023, resulting in a divergence between tenders and installed capacity. In 2023, the market expects 10GW of installed capacity, but the actual installed capacity is only 7.2GW. However, entering 2024, the speed of project approvals has accelerated significantly, which means that the earlier batch of postponed projects has been resolved, the Haifeng approval process has been streamlined, and other Haifeng projects are expected to get back on track. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power in each province will be about 57.2GW, and it is expected that by 2025, the cumulative installed capacity will exceed 64GW. The Wind Energy Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society (CWEA) predicts that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the new installed capacity of offshore wind power will reach more than 100GW.

Overseas, the offshore wind market in Europe is also in the ascendant. From 2024 to 2026, the new offshore wind capacity is expected to be 3.7GW, 5.6GW and 8.4GW, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 50.4%. Many projects in Europe have entered the construction stage, and the order schedule is full. Due to its limited local digestion capacity, these orders are expected to spill over to Chinese manufacturers. In addition, emerging markets such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have also set targets for a total of 58GW of offshore wind power by 2030. Considering that the US IRA Act reinstates the tax relief policy, it is expected to drive the accelerated release of demand, and the potential for offshore wind power development in the United States is particularly huge.

Chinese manufacturers are very hopeful of "getting a piece of the pie" in the offshore wind boom range. Zheshang Securities said in a recent research report that affected by the European installed capacity boom, overseas local tower piles, submarine cables, large parts production capacity is in short supply, local manufacturers have been unable to meet the demand for orders, if Chinese manufacturers can seize this capacity shortage window of opportunity, accelerate the pace of going to sea, it is expected to open up new growth space. In addition, China's domestic steel prices and labor costs are also more advantageous than overseas, even considering the shipping cost, Chinese products still have a price advantage in the European market.

From the perspective of the competitive landscape, China's offshore wind power manufacturing market is highly concentrated. In 2023, a total of 8 domestic machine manufacturers will have new installed capacity of offshore wind power, among which Mingyang Intelligent (601615. SH) added 287 new installed capacity, with a capacity of 2.94GW, accounting for 40.96%, followed by Envision Energy, Electric Wind Power (601727. SH), Goldwind (002202. SZ), Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772. SZ), CSSC Shipping, Dongfang Electric (600875. SH) and Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169.SH).

Shanghai Electric (601727. SH) gained 26.8% this week, and a single stock contributed 26.21 points to the Xinhua Electric New Overseas Preferred 50 Index. According to the quarterly report, Shanghai Electric's revenue in the third quarter was 26.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.67%.

Consumption goes overseas丨Sports events open up the overseas market for black home appliances

On the evening of October 29, Hisense Video (600060. SH) announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2024. According to the report, the company's operating income in the first three quarters was 40.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.63%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1.310 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.53%.

Specific to the third quarter, Hisense's video revenue was 15.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 476 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.46%.

Despite the decline in profit data, the capital market reacted very positively to the financial data for the third quarter given by Hisense Video. Shortly after the opening of the market on October 30, Hisense Video ushered in a daily limit. By the close of trading on November 1, Hisense Video had a weekly increase of 14.4%.

The

"overseas business growth" mentioned in the research reports of many brokerages may be the reason for the resilience of Hisense's video stock price.

As the sponsor of the top European Cup event and the official partner of the world's top football club"Real Madrid",Hisense Video has carried out a large number of marketing and promotion activities around the world with the help of top sports IP,Make breakthroughs in overseas popularity through sports events。 Data shows,Less than a week after the start of this year's European Cup,Hisense TV's sales in five European countries increased year-on-year57%,Mid-to-high-end categories increased year-on-year137。 Compared with the 2016 first sponsorship of the European Cup, Hisense TV was less than 5% of the shipment share in the European market,Today,This number has exceeded 14。

According to the monitoring data of Aowei cloud network,20241-9month,Hisense brand TV brand price index in the United States、Germany、Italy、United Kingdom、France、Spain and other 17Countries or regions have increased year-on-year。 In the third quarter, the global revenue of Hisense's video smart display terminal business was 12.197 billion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year, of which the main business income of overseas smart display terminals was 8.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.38%. During the reporting period, Hisense's brand TV shipments in the United States and Europe increased by 24.59% and 29.28% year-on-year respectively.

Jia Shaoqian, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Hisense Group, said, "Today, Hisense has 36 industrial parks and production bases around the world, with 30 R&D institutions, 64 overseas companies and offices, and has initially formed an integrated layout of research, production and marketing in Europe, America, ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific and China. Facing the future,Hisense will carry globalization to the end。 ”

China's electric vehicles can be tariffed up to 45.3% in Europe

The boots of the EU's tariffs on electric vehicles in China have finally landed.

On October 29, local time, the European Commission announced that it had concluded its countervailing investigation of Chinese electric vehicles and decided to impose a final countervailing duty on electric vehicles imported from China for a period of five years. The decision was published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 30 October and came into force on 31 October. This means that manufacturers of electric vehicles in China face additional tariffs ranging from 7.8% to 35.3%, which can be combined with the original normal tariff of 10% on EU car imports, with a maximum rate of 45.3%.

According to the final ruling, BYD, Geely, and SAIC were subject to additional tax rates of 17.0%, 18.8%, and 35.3% respectively, which was slightly lower than the initial ruling. Companies that were not sampled but cooperated with the survey, including Aiways, JAC (a joint venture with Volkswagen to produce the Cupra), BMW Brilliance (a joint venture with BMW to produce the electric MINI), Chery, FAW, Changan, Dongfeng, Great Wall, Leap, King Long Bus, NIO, and Xpeng, will be subject to a 20.7% tariff, while other non-cooperative companies will be subject to a 35.3% tariff. In addition, Tesla's tax rate is 7.8% separately calculated due to individual review requests.

The European market used to be the most proud market for Chinese automakers. SAIC's MG is one of Europe's best-selling electric vehicle brands, while brands such as Geely's Polestar and Sweden's Volvo are also gaining traction in the European market. According to data released by the European Commission, in 2020, China's total EV exports were about 190,000 units, of which 17.4% were exported to EU countries. By 2022, China's EV exports have surged to nearly 940,000 units, and the proportion of exports to the EU has also increased significantly to 34.7%.

After the EU's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are landed, it is bound to cause major disruptions to Chinese car companies going overseas in Europe. In an interview with the media, a new force auto person bluntly said that his car company originally planned to enter the European market, but this plan was canceled after the tariff rate was made public. It said that such a high tax rate can only be absorbed by the high-end product lines of some car companies, and mainstream models may sell cars at a loss after increasing the burden of tariffs.

Zhang Xiaojie, National Leader of Customs & Global Trade Services, Tax & Business Advisory, Deloitte China, also said that in the face of such an increase in tax rates, whether Chinese automakers choose to fully pass on the new tax to consumers or absorb this part of the cost by reducing their own profits, it is likely to lead to a decline in the competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles in the international market. In addition, if the existing countervailing measures fail to establish effective protection for European domestic industries as the European Commission expects, Chinese automakers will need to be wary of possible anti-dumping investigations.

Xinhua Overseas Series Index丨The market as a whole fluctuated and pulled back

This week, the CSI 300 fell by 1.68%, and the overseas series of indices also followed the market shock, with the new 50 and 50 consumption falling by 1.52% and 1.55% respectively, outperforming the CSI 300 index.