After a period of turmoil, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise and successively stood at the integer mark of 3,300 points and 3,400 points, and the overall money-making effect of the market rose.

From the perspective of market performance, although some of the strong industries in the early stage of the market counteroffensive have been differentiated, funds still maintain a high degree of heat. Some analysts pointed out that after the rotation of the plate, the funds are expected to continue to look for trend opportunities in the main track, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the low-altitude economy, brokerages and new energy power sectors with the in-depth layout of funds in the early stage.

■Reporter Lin Ke

　　A

Low-altitude economy:

A trillion-dollar market to be discovered

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the first plenary meeting of the leading group for the development of low-altitude industries to study and deploy key tasks to promote the high-quality development of low-altitude industries. The meeting proposed that it is necessary to do a good job in top-level planning and cultivate more low-altitude industry head enterprises and specialized and new "little giant" enterprises. As a typical representative of emerging industries and new quality productivity, many governments attach great importance to the cultivation of low-altitude economic industries, and relevant plans continue to be implemented. Some analysts have pointed out that at present, various localities have issued action plans and plans for low-altitude economic development, while the national-level plans have not yet been released. Next, the national plan is expected to give more specific quantitative indicators from specific development goals, realization paths, technical directions, etc., and give guidance for the industrial layout of low-altitude economic key areas such as Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Chengdu-Chongqing, and the Yangtze River Delta.

In addition, it is reported that the relevant ministries and commissions of the state plan to set up a low-altitude economic management department, which has been approved and is being prepared. It is relatively rare for the state to set up an industrial management unit, which is conducive to solving the situation of multiple management and inefficient management, and its importance can be seen. In the future, the department is expected to promote the integration and innovation of the low-altitude economic field by optimizing the top-level design of the policy, and promote the development of the industry by coordinating the resources of all links.

Low-altitude economy is a comprehensive economic form that includes both traditional general aviation formats and low-altitude production and service modes supported by UAVs, empowered by informatization and digital management technology, and integrated with more economic and social activities. According to the Civil Aviation Administration, by 2025, the low-altitude economic market size will reach 1.5 trillion yuan, and by 2035 is expected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan.

Gong Siwen, an analyst at Guoyuan Securities, said that in terms of infrastructure, it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen City Communications, Jiangsu Jiaotong Technology, Huashe Group and Narui Radar; In terms of the whole machine, it is recommended to pay attention to Wanfeng Aowei, EHang Intelligence, and Zongheng Shares; In terms of core components, we pay attention to Zongshen Power, Wolong Electric Drive, Yingliu Co., Ltd., and Yingboer; In terms of air traffic control and operation, we pay attention to CITIC Haizhi, Zhongke Xingtu and Sichuan Jiuzhou.

A selection of potential stocks

Shenzhen City Friendship (301091).

Make efforts to low-altitude economy

With the rapid development of big data software and smart transportation business, or due to the continuous increase in volume and profit of this business segment, the company's gross profit margin has risen significantly, which in turn has driven the company's performance to grow against the trend. Everbright Securities pointed out that the company forward-looking layout of low-altitude and vehicle-road cloud and other new quality productivity directions, with the background of state-owned assets and technological advantages to expand rapidly, won the bid to undertake the layout planning project of low-altitude aircraft take-off and landing facilities in Shenzhen, Wuxi, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and other cities, the upgrading and transformation plan of helicopter take-off and landing facilities in Shenzhen, the research on the guidelines for the construction of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) take-off and landing facilities, and the planning and implementation plan of low-altitude economic development in Wuxi City (secondary). Shandong High-speed Group Low-altitude Economic Industry Development Planning Report" is the first winning candidate of the preparation service unit, and actively connects with many key cities in East China, South China, Southwest China, North China and other regions and various districts of Shenzhen to jointly plan and promote related projects for the construction and development of low-altitude economy.

Wanfeng Aowei (002085).

The manufacturing business has sufficient orders

The company continues to strengthen cooperation with core new energy customers, optimize product structure, increase the matching of large-size wheels, popularize the application of magnesium alloy large-scale die-casting parts such as magnesium alloy dashboard bracket in domestic high-end vehicles and new energy vehicles, promote the localization of magnesium alloy large-scale die-casting parts, and continuously meet the rise of new energy vehicles and the development needs of automobile lightweight. Guoyuan Securities pointed out that the company's general aviation aircraft manufacturing business orders are sufficient, sales business continues to optimize, global private aircraft market development and production capacity is gradually released, with the development of low-altitude economy in the future, diamond aircraft will continue to develop new application scenarios on the basis of aviation school training and other application markets, through a rich series of models to further match and develop domestic private flight, short-distance transportation, special purpose and other scenarios, while increasing the research and development of new aircraft such as electric aircraft and eVTOL, to seize new opportunities for the development of the national low-altitude economy. Together with strategic partners, we are committed to accelerating the market layout of the low-altitude economy.

Zongshen Power (001696).

Benefit from the high growth of the industry

Through its holding subsidiary, Zongshen Hangfa, the company actively lays out the low-altitude field, mainly providing power system solutions for general aviation aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. Northeast Securities pointed out that in terms of products, Zongshen Aviation Development has formed a product line based on small and medium-sized aviation piston engines, built five basic product platforms, launched more than 20 derivative products and propeller products, covering the UAV and light general aviation aircraft market, and continuously optimized and improved the power system integration technology, realized the integrated design of engine + propeller + thermal management system + power generation system, and solved customer needs in an all-round way. In terms of operation, Zongshen Aviation Development continues to develop application scenarios such as emergency rescue, agriculture and forestry plant protection, and at the same time accelerates the airworthiness certification process and the research and development of hybrid aero engine products, laying a solid foundation for the wide application of products in the field of low-altitude economy; At the same time, we will continue to increase investment in specific market resources, dig deep into market demand, further consolidate and expand the market share of products, and are expected to fully benefit from the low altitude economy industry to achieve high growth.

Zhongke Star Map (688568).

Competitive advantage

The rapid growth of the company's revenue is mainly due to the company's seizing the development opportunity of the aerospace information industry, fully tapping customer needs, and increasing orders in hand. In the third quarter, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was 16 million yuan, which turned positive year-on-year. Zheshang Securities pointed out that the company is based on its core business, taking digital earth technology as the starting point, and laying out new productivity tracks such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy. The company has completed the overall design of the first phase of the "4+2" commercial aerospace industry chain layout, and has planned and laid out the layout in the fields of commercial constellation construction, commercial satellite TT&C and operation control, aerospace information application services, etc., and made a strategic leap to the entire commercial aerospace industry chain. In addition, the company has been deploying the low-altitude economic field since 2020, and has formed a clear competitive advantage in this field. Released the GEOVIS digital intelligence low-altitude brain, which provides common capabilities such as airspace planning, route planning, geofencing, flight posture, flight warning, and risk assessment for low-altitude transportation services.

　　B

Brokers:

Performance growth is expected to accelerate further

In the context of the continued active market, the brokerage sector ushered in a continuous catalyst. From a fundamental point of view, 43 listed securities companies achieved operating income of 136.4 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 21% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 39.5 billion yuan, an increase of 41% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month.

It is worth mentioning that the exchange disclosed that from September to October 2024, the number of new A-share accounts opened was 183 and 6.85 million respectively, an increase of 83% and 275% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 37% and 484%. Some analysts pointed out that the number of accounts opened in October exceeded expectations, and the popularity was close to the second quarter of 2015, and the timing of disclosure also exceeded expectations. In the market where individual investors are the core incremental funds, both the trading side and the business side are more favorable to brokers, and the return on net assets of brokerages is expected to exceed that in 2021.

Gao Chao, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, said that since October, the market turnover has remained high, superimposed on the low base, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the fourth quarter of the brokerage is significantly stronger than that in the third quarter. At present, the institutional allocation and valuation of the sector are still at a low level, the positive policy of stabilizing growth and stabilizing the stock market is expected to continue, the performance of brokerages is improving, and the preference of individual investors for the brokerage sector continues to be optimistic about opportunities.

In the short term, the trading activity and market prosperity of A-shares remain high, and the fundamental flexibility of brokerage performance is gradually realized. Xu Yingying, an analyst at Caitong Securities, pointed out that in the medium and long term, under the force of the steady growth policy, the economic fundamentals are expected to improve to drive the equity market to continue to improve, and the medium and long-term performance of the brokerage sector is expected to return to the growth channel. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to two main lines, the first is the main line of mergers and acquisitions under the excellent and strong head brokerage, and pay attention to high-quality head brokerages such as CITIC Securities and China Galaxy; The second is to benefit from the main line of improving liquidity in the capital market, focusing on Oriental Wealth, which has a high elasticity in its brokerage business.

A selection of potential stocks

CITIC Securities (600030).

The business began to repair

The company's total operating income in the first three quarters was 41.3 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year. The single quarter in the third quarter was 14.6 billion yuan, an increase of 530 million yuan from the previous quarter. the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters was 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; The single quarter in the third quarter was 6.23 billion yuan, an increase of 620 million yuan from the previous quarter. The return on equity in the first three quarters was 5.9%, down 0.4% year-on-year; It was 2.2% in the quarter and increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. Hua Chuang Securities pointed out that the total net income of the company's heavy capital business was 22.58 billion yuan, 9.73 billion yuan in a single quarter, and 2.674 billion yuan from the previous quarter. The annualized net return on non-capital-heavy business was 2.2%, compared to 0.9% in a single quarter, and increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. The company's third-quarter performance was in line with expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in the single-quarter self-operated yield, reflecting the flexibility of the company's proprietary business in the equity market. The quarter-on-quarter improvement of various businesses is optimistic about the room for performance recovery.

China Galaxy (601881).

The performance rebounded slightly

In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 27.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. In the third quarter, the operating income was 10 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.5%. Haitong Securities pointed out that the company's equity investment business adheres to the tenet of "low risk + absolute return", among which the dividend strategy has achieved good investment results, contributing to the company's stable performance and net asset appreciation. In terms of fixed income investment, we adhered to a prudent investment strategy, continued to optimize the position structure, stabilized the scale of interest rate bonds, increased the allocation of stable income investment products, and steadily carried out investments in ABS, bills, REITs, and overseas fixed income. On the whole, the company's brokerage business is under pressure, and the proprietary business promotes the company's performance growth.

Oriental Fortune (300059).

Performance flexibility can be expected

The company's performance in the third quarter of 2024 is in line with expectations as a whole, and the profit in the third quarter returns to positive growth, mainly from the contribution of proprietary investment performance, the company's trading financial assets continue to increase and concentrate on bond holdings, so benefiting from the bond market, the company's performance is resilient, but in the short term, the company's fund distribution business is affected by fee reductions and market factors, and continues to be weak year-on-year. China Securities pointed out that the company's securities brokerage and margin financing business accounted for about 50% of the total revenue on average, and the brokerage and financial business were affected by the turnover of the stock market, and were expected to continue to increase with the stabilization of the A-share market and the increase in market trading activity.

Huatai Securities (601688).

Self-operating performance improved year-on-year

In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 31.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%. The operating income in the third quarter was 13.98 billion yuan, an increase of 57.8% year-on-year and 23.4% quarter-on-quarter; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.21 billion yuan, an increase of 138% year-on-year and 138.8% month-on-month. Haitong Securities pointed out that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters and the third quarter increased significantly, on the one hand, due to the better performance of its own operations and the recognition of investment income from the sale of AssetMark, and on the other hand, the company's reduction in the scale of interest-bearing liabilities and interest expenses. It can be seen that the company's investment income (including fair value) in the first three quarters of 2024 was 12.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%; Investment income (including fair value) in the third quarter was 7.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 321.4%. The third quarter includes the recognition of investment income from the sale of AssetMark.

　　C

New energy power:

The development prospects of the industry are clear

Since the beginning of this year, China's green and low-carbon energy transformation has continued to make new breakthroughs. Judging from the energy situation and grid-connected operation of renewable energy in the first three quarters released by the National Energy Administration, the new installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in the first three quarters was 210 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21%, accounting for 86% of the new installed power capacity. Among them, wind power added 39.12 million kilowatts, and solar power added 161 million kilowatts, with a total increase of more than 200 million kilowatts. As of the end of September, the country's installed renewable energy capacity reached 1.73 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 25%, accounting for about 54.7% of China's total installed capacity.

Some analysts pointed out that in the medium and long term, in order to achieve the "carbon neutrality" strategy, China's energy, industry, consumption and regional structure will undergo major adjustments for a long time in the future, which will bring clear development opportunities for related industries. From the perspective of subdivisions, it is recommended that investors pay attention to photovoltaic, wind power and other beneficiary industries.

Wang Shuai, an analyst at Industrial Securities, pointed out that at present, photovoltaic manufacturers in all aspects are exploring the dynamic rebalancing node of supply and demand, and it is expected that the industry will optimize the pattern and accelerate the clearance of backward production capacity under the joint action of policy guidance and market adjustment mechanism in the future, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States will also give continuous upward support to photovoltaic demand. From the perspective of industry profit restoration, it is recommended to pay attention to the leading photovoltaic main chain and auxiliary materials, and it is recommended to pay attention to Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar, Junda Co., Ltd., Aiko Co., Ltd., Foster Co., Ltd., and Follett Co., Ltd.

In terms of wind power, Yu Xihao, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, pointed out that with the launch of new products with large megawatts, the cost reduction work of the main engine link continues to advance, and the profitability is expected to improve marginally. With the improvement of demand, the capacity utilization rate and profit per ton of tower pipe piles have increased simultaneously, focusing on obvious regional advantages, smooth overseas market development and strong order acquisition capabilities of Haili Wind Power, Taisheng Wind Energy and Tianshun Wind Energy.

A selection of potential stocks

Tongwei shares (600438).

The integrated layout is far-reaching

In the past two years, the company's module shipment growth rate has been significantly better than the industry average, achieving comprehensive coverage of key domestic customers, and achieving module sales of 18.67GW during the year, a year-on-year increase of 108.36%. The company has made great efforts to expand overseas markets, has strong financing capabilities, newly developed important markets such as South Africa and the Middle East, and recently obtained GW-level orders from ACWAPower. At present, the company has formed more than 650,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity, 95GW of solar cell production capacity and 75GW of module production capacity. AVIC Securities pointed out that the company is a leading polysilicon enterprise with strong cost advantages, N-type cell production capacity has been released rapidly, and there is no burden of old production capacity, and it will continue to promote the development of new technologies, consolidate the company's long-term competitive advantages, continue to improve its integrated layout, and vigorously expand the overseas module market. On the whole, the company has developed synergistically in multiple sectors, strengthened the advantages of the industrial chain, and enhanced the company's ability to resist risks.

LONGi Green Energy (601012).

Earnings are expected to recover

From January to September 2024, the company shipped 82.80GW of silicon wafers, a year-on-year decrease of 4.22%. In the third quarter, 38.37 GW of silicon wafers and 21.39 GW of cell modules were shipped, an increase from the previous quarter. The company's gross profit margin in the third quarter of 2024 reached 8.6%, an increase of 1.99% from the second quarter. Pacific Securities pointed out that in the first three quarters of 2024, the company shipped about 1.6GW in the U.S. market, and its market share declined significantly year-on-year. As the production capacity of the company's joint venture factory in the United States continues to increase, the company's market share in the United States market is expected to stabilize and rebound. As a leader in photovoltaic integration, the company leads the industry in technology iteration. With the bottoming out of the quotation of the industrial chain, the company's profitability is expected to be repaired, and at the same time, benefiting from the investment and breakthrough in new technologies, the company's HPBC2.0 is expected to usher in an accelerated volume.

Trinity Renewable Energy (688349).

Overseas orders are gradually cashed out

The company's revenue in the third quarter was 3.79 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year and 6.6% quarter-on-quarter; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 251 million yuan, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year and 49.8% month-on-month; The net profit after deducting non-attributable to the parent company was 224 million yuan, an increase of 228.7% year-on-year and 48.3% month-on-month. The scale of contract liabilities was 5.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%, and the company's delivery speed is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter of the peak season for wind power installation and grid connection. Guojin Securities pointed out that the recent industry giants have gathered to sign the industry self-discipline convention, the price competition in the domestic machine link is expected to slow down, and the company's profitability is expected to pick up under the background of the continuous promotion of large-scale technology and the gradual realization of the scale effect of downstream demand. In addition, on October 27, the company announced the signing of a sales contract for 1624MW wind turbines in India, making a major breakthrough in the overseas market. The profitability of orders in overseas markets is better than that of domestic orders, and with the gradual realization of the company's overseas orders, it is expected to improve the company's revenue structure and improve the quality of profitability.

Goldwind (002202).

Abundant orders in hand

The company achieved revenue of 35.839 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14%; The net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company was 1.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.15%. Great Wall Securities pointed out that as of the end of the third quarter, the company's total orders in hand were 44.28GW, of which nearly 30GW of external contracts have been signed and pending execution, and orders for units of 6MW and above accounted for about 73% of external orders in hand. The abundant orders in hand provide a guarantee for the shipment volume, the trend of large-scale is accelerating, and the value of a single megawatt is increasing, and the revenue and gross profit margin of the wind turbine business are expected to continue to improve. In the context of high demand, the company is expected to fully benefit as a leading machine manufacturer and is optimistic about the continuous growth of performance.