Following the countervailing duty rate, the United States recently announced the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping duty rate on photovoltaic cells in four Southeast Asian countries. On November 29, 2024 local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its preliminary affirmative ruling on its anti-dumping duty investigation of crystalline photovoltaic cells (whether assembled into modules or not) in four Southeast Asian countries, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Overall, the U.S. Department of Commerce's anti-dumping duty rates on the four Southeast Asian countries range from 0 to 271.28%. Among them, Hanwha Hanwha Qcell's Malaysian anti-dumping duty rate is 0, and Vietnam-Wide Entity's Vietnam anti-dumping duty rate is 271.28%.

Most

of the relevant Chinese PV companies with local production capacity have a dumping duty rate of more than 50% in Vietnam. According to the latest preliminary ruling, JinkoSolar (688223. SH) was ruled to be subject to a dumping duty rate of 21.31% on products manufactured in Malaysia and 56.51% on products manufactured in Vietnam. Trina Solar (688599. SH) is subject to a dumping duty of 77.85% on products manufactured in Thailand and 54.46% on products produced in Vietnam. JA Solar (002459. SZ) is subject to a dumping duty of 53.30% on products manufactured in Vietnam.

However, this ruling is only preliminary, and the final result is expected to be determined by mid-2025.

The U.S. Department of Commerce launched a dual anti-subsidy (anti-dumping) investigation against four Southeast Asian countries, which can be traced back to May 2024. The results of the preliminary anti-subsidy ruling have been announced earlier, and compared with the latest anti-dumping duty rates, the countervailing duty rates are low, ranging from 0.81% to 8.25% for major domestic PV companies.

The market has also expected that the anti-circumvention preliminary tax rate will be significantly higher than the countervailing tax rate. Some people in the industry believe that after the double reversal and anti-dumping landing, the advantages of the four Southeast Asian countries in losing to the United States will be greatly weakened, and they will not even have the ability to export to the United States.

LONGi Green Energy (601012. During the 2024 interim results briefing, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of the board of directors, said: "In the future, the production capacity of the four Southeast Asian countries will be taxed when it enters the U.S. market. Because the tax rate is too high, Vietnam's production capacity should not have the conditions to enter the United States in the future; Malaysia and Thailand have no opportunity to export modules, but there are still market opportunities for batteries. ”

LONGi Green Energy said in an exchange with institutional investors in November that the extent of the impact of the United States on Southeast Asia's photovoltaic production capacity still needs to wait for the implementation of anti-dumping duties. "Considering the shortage of high-efficiency battery production capacity in the United States, it is expected that battery production capacity in Southeast Asia will continue to enter the U.S. market. ”

The high-premium U.S. PV market has always been an important contributor to the profits of Chinese PV companies' overseas business. In 2022, then-U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which plans to provide up to US$369 billion in subsidies to support the clean energy industry, including domestic photovoltaic products, mainly fiscal tax credits, including investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credits (PTC).

In the past two years, with the support of IRA subsidies in the United States, the production capacity of photovoltaic modules in the United States is increasing rapidly. According to industry statistics, as of October 2024, the production capacity of photovoltaic modules in operation in the United States has increased to 45.1GW, and local photovoltaic modules can basically meet the installed demand in the United States.

However, the wafer and cell sectors are still dependent on imports. According to the statistics of Oriental Wealth Securities, the current production capacity of silicon wafers and cells in the United States is 3.3GW and 8.8GW respectively, considering the future capacity planning of the United States and the existing effective capacity of overseas cells, the shortage of domestic batteries in the United States may remain for 2~3 years. The agency predicts that in the future, the PV supply pattern in the United States will change from the integration of Southeast Asia to the United States to the form of "imported materials + local modules".

At present, Chinese PV companies with battery production capacity in other overseas markets (except for the four countries in Southeast Asia) include Hengdian DMC (002056. SZ), Junda Co., Ltd. (002865. SZ), Shijing Technology (301030. SZ) and so on. PV companies with local production capacity in the United States include Canadian Solar (688472. SH), Trina Solar (688599. SH), LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), JinkoSolar (688223. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ）。

According to the first financial reporter, Hengdian DMC's Indonesian photovoltaic cell production capacity began to be put into operation at the end of July this year, and is currently gradually shipping to the US market; At the end of July, Junda announced that it would start construction of a 5GW high-efficiency battery project with an annual output of 5GW in the Sohar Free Trade Zone of the Sultanate of Oman in the Middle East, which is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in 2025; Shijing Technology has a battery production capacity of 2.5GW in Mexico, and is expected to be put into production in June 2025.

According to the statistics of the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA), as of the second quarter of 2024, the scale of centralized power station projects contracted to be built in the United States is 96GW, and the scale of centralized power stations that have been planned to be connected to the grid in 2025~2026 is more than 20GW. Oriental Wealth Securities predicts that the installed capacity of PV in the United States is expected to be close to 40GW in 2024, and it is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the future.

JinkoSolar is optimistic about the long-term installed capacity demand of the U.S. PV market in the future. In a communication with institutional investors in November, the company said that on the one hand, the rapid development of artificial intelligence will continue to drive the demand for electricity in the United States, and on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's entry into the interest rate cut cycle will also be conducive to the improvement of the yield of photovoltaic power plants.

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