On December 26, polysilicon futures were officially listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Guangzhou Futures Exchange"). This is the third new energy metal variety after the listing of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate.

The year 2024 is coming to an end, and the polysilicon industry has experienced a year of price bottoming. In the spot market, polysilicon prices once fell to a record low of 40,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 86.9% compared with the staged high of 308,000 yuan/ton in November 2022.

Industry insiders believe that the futures market provides an opportunity to lock in sales volume and sales prices in advance, which helps enterprises to better plan production and sales strategies, and consumption and procurement enterprises also have an important channel to lock in costs and ensure the supply of goods.

The

turnover on the first day of listing was 41.6 billion

As of the close of trading on the 26th, the trading volume of polysilicon futures was 331,300 contracts, the open interest was 39,700 contracts, and the turnover was 41.635 billion yuan.

According to the relevant person in charge of Guangqi Institute, industrial silicon is an important raw material for photovoltaic, organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries; Polysilicon is the main raw material for the manufacture of solar cells, integrated circuit silicon substrates and other products. The listing of polysilicon futures will form a synergistic effect with industrial silicon futures and options, enrich the risk management tools of the photovoltaic industry, and transform the scale advantage of China's polysilicon industry into price influence.

According to the analysis of the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, driven by the explosive growth of global photovoltaic installations, the supply and demand of the polysilicon industry have increased rapidly, but due to the different pace of expansion and launch of upstream and downstream industries, the market has entered a dilemma of mismatch between supply and demand and large price fluctuations from 2022.

"When the price is high, the supply is insufficient, the expansion cycle is long, and the demand cannot be met in time, and the cost inversion is serious when the price is low, and the inventory is difficult to absorb in the short term, and the company continues to lose money." The Silicon Industry Branch further analyzed.

Statistics show that in 2021~2023, the annual amplitude of polysilicon prices will be as high as 226.63%, 63.49% and 280.17%.

In the futures market, since the listing of industrial silicon futures in December 2022, the price of industrial silicon futures has continued to decline, and the main contract will fall by about 21% in 2024.

As of the end of November 2024, the average daily trading volume of industrial silicon futures and options was 471,100 contracts, the cumulative turnover was 4.85 trillion yuan, and the average daily position was 419,100 contracts, accounting for about 38.73% of the domestic market.

Judging from the price trend of polysilicon on the first day of listing, as of the close, the first batch of 7 contracts listed all closed up, of which the main contract PS2506 opened at 44,000 yuan/ton and closed at 41,570 yuan/ton, up 7.69% from the listed benchmark price of 38,600 yuan/ton.

Zhang Jie, a researcher at Xinhu Futures Energy and New Materials, told Yicai that the delivery month of the main contract PS2506 will be at the beginning of the wet season, when the fundamentals of polysilicon supply and demand will improve, and the price will be supported.

Added a hedging tool

Polysilicon is in the upstream of the PV industry chain, and its price changes will affect the production cost of the PV industry chain.

Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438. SH) said that due to the high threshold of polysilicon technology, high investment intensity, and high management difficulty, it has made it the link with the lowest capacity elasticity, the longest construction period, and the slowest expansion speed in the photovoltaic industry chain, which has led to the rapid rise in prices caused by the mismatch between supply and demand in 2021, and the situation of deep price bottoming this year.

In response to the fluctuation of polysilicon prices, Daqo Energy (688303. SH) said that for the industry, the fluctuation of polysilicon prices directly affects the company's current profits, cost control, production scheduling, employment arrangements and tax payment and other key aspects.

Recently, Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Daqo Energy have both released news on production reduction and production control to prevent the continuation of "involution" vicious competition and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry. Both companies also mentioned that the orderly reduction of production could reduce the operating loss of the polysilicon business.

In Zhang Jie's view, the polysilicon industry as a whole was in a state of oversupply during the year, and the industry's inventory was high, and the pressure of decentralization was great. In the second half of the year, after the industry self-discipline initiative, the output quota system was proposed, and the production capacity release was actively restricted, and the leading enterprises took the lead in lowering the production scheduling plan. In the later period, the loose fundamentals of the industry will be slightly tightened, and the industry inventory may be absorbed to a certain extent.

"The listing of polysilicon futures has opened up new sales channels and procurement channels for spot companies," the relevant person in charge of Daqo Energy mentioned that for production and sales enterprises, the futures market provides an opportunity to lock in sales volume and sales prices in advance, which helps enterprises better plan production and sales strategies. For consumption and purchasing companies, the futures market has become an important channel to lock in costs and ensure the supply of goods.

Tongwei said that the market of polysilicon has fluctuated greatly in the past two years, which is not conducive to the stable operation of physical enterprises. It is expected that after the listing of polysilicon futures, the pricing methods of some industries will be changed, and manufacturers will also participate in the business of point price, delivery, and futures transfer, which will help the entire photovoltaic industry chain better find prices and reduce transaction costs.