We believe that the realization of the company's many catalysts in 2025 is expected to lead to a continued increase in its market capitalization. Among them:
1) BL-B01D1: It is expected to expand to the front line and the world in 2025. Up to now, 01D1 has disclosed early clinical data in China at the end of NSCLC, SCLC, BC, NPC, ESCC, BTC, UC and other cancer types, all of which have shown the potential to become a new generation of cornerstone drugs. In 2025, 01D1 is expected to expand the above competitiveness to the world: BMS will take the opportunity to announce the phase data of the global phase I clinical trial of 01D1, and plans to open the first global registrational clinical trial in 2025. Based on this, we have raised the success rate of 01D1 in the global end-line cancer indication clinical trial from 25-30% to 50-70%; On the other hand, 01D1 is expected to expand to the front line: its phase II clinical phase data in combination with osimertinib for the first-line EGFRm NSCLC in China may be read out at the 2025 ASCO conference, and BMS has also launched global clinical trials for related indications this year, and the clinical results may be disclosed in 2026. Given that comparable competitor osimertinib can reach $3 billion to $4 billion in first-line EGFRm NSCLC indications worldwide, we believe that the readout of the 01D1 data next year is expected to significantly increase its peak expectations.
2) BL-M11D1: Full data is expected to be disclosed in 2025, and we are optimistic about its potential for sub-licensing. The Company disclosed partial ramp-up results from the Phase I clinical trial of CD33 ADC BL-M11D1 in 2024 ASH, demonstrating excellent efficacy and a favorable safety profile, and we expect the full results to be readout in 2H25. We believe the BL-M11D1 is on track to reach a potential peak sales of $1.5-2 billion globally.
Earnings forecasts and valuations. We expect the company to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40.89/0.66/-414 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, and the corresponding EPS will be 10.20/0.17/-1.03 yuan respectively. Due to our upward revision of the overall POS and peak expectations of BL-B01D1 and the sales expectation of the new BL-M11D1, we have raised the reasonable value to the range of 244.13~299.40 yuan by using the DCF valuation method, taking the WACC in the range of 6.89%~7.29%, and giving an "outperform" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the progress of drug research and development is less than expected, the risk that drug sales are less than expected, the risk of intensified competition, and the risk of policy;
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