The market gradually stopped falling after approaching the half-year line, but the amplification of trading volume was not obvious in the market shock rebound. From the perspective of capital attitude, it is still mainly wait-and-see.

For the recent market, some analysts believe that the cautious attitude of funds before the year may continue, and the current index operation can go up or down, investors should not chase up and down, and the position is too heavy. In the short term, you can focus on thematic opportunities, such as performance forecasts, high dividends, and the current popularity of the Xiaohongshu concept.

　　1

Performance pre-increase: focus on sustainable growth

From the perspective of investment value, pre-performance stocks often reflect the improvement of the company's operating conditions and the improvement of performance. Companies with growth potential usually have a stronger foundation and can provide strong support for stock price growth.

It can be seen that in recent years, due to a variety of factors, the performance of A-share listed companies has been significantly differentiated. According to FinD data, more than 240 Shanghai companies have released their 2024 annual report performance forecasts so far, of which more than 140 companies have seen year-on-year growth in performance, accounting for more than 60%.

For companies that have announced their earnings increases, from an investment perspective, investors need to pay attention to the reasons for the earnings increases, such as whether the increase is due to the strong growth of the company's core business or the growth caused by the low base of the previous period. Secondly, the outlook of the industry is crucial, if the industry as a whole is in a period of decline, the company's performance growth may be difficult to sustain, and future growth may be restricted; Finally, the valuation level is also one of the factors that need to be considered, if the market has fully responded to the company's performance forecast, the future expected earnings may be relatively limited, and conversely, if the market has not fully reacted to the performance forecast, then there may be potential investment opportunities.

To sum up, when investors choose pre-performance stocks, sustainable growth needs to be prioritized for research and analysis. Some analysts pointed out that the sustainability of the performance increase can be assessed through fundamental factors such as the company's previous financial statements, industry status, and market competitiveness. At the same time, investors can also examine the development trends and competitive landscape of the industry in which the company operates. For industries in a period of rapid development, the company's performance may mean that its competitive advantage in the industry is further consolidated.

It is worth mentioning that investors need to pay special attention to the performance forecast that is not sustainable. For example, the company may achieve net profit growth through one-time asset disposal or special accounting treatment, and the performance growth brought about by this short-term phenomenon is difficult to sustain.

A selection of potential stocks

Truide (300001).

ArcSoft Technology (688088).

NAURA (002371).

Haiguang Information (688041).

　　2

High dividends: one of the long-term allocation directions

Historically, high-dividend strategies have not only had a strong resistance to declines in volatile markets, but also tended to have better relative returns when the market was facing a correction.

According to the statistics of Guosen Securities, the high-dividend strategy has had significant dominant performance in four situations, including the rapid upward trend of the market, rapid adjustment, shock interpretation, and long-term bear-bull switching, including the comprehensive bull market from 2006 to the end of 2007, the phased adjustment in 2008 and the first half of 2022, the "bear-bull-bear switch" from 2015 to 2018, and the "structural bull" in 2021.

As for the reasons for the dominance of the dividend style in the market in recent times, Kaiyuan Securities analysis pointed out that, firstly, due to the influence of domestic policies and market expectations, the recent policy density has decreased, the market consensus has changed from "high expectations" to "neutral expectations", and the market risk appetite has contracted; Secondly, from the perspective of funds, due to the resonance of factors such as the reduction of policy density, the weakening of the money-making effect and the convergence of risk appetite, the trend of the strength and weakness of allocation and transactional funds is mainly reflected in the dominance of dividend assets. Looking ahead, the dividend style is sustainable in the short term.

The analysis points out that dividend assets have the characteristics of stable dividends and high proportions. This can also be seen in the way the CSI Dividend Index is compiled. The compilation of the CSI Dividend Index requires "continuous cash dividends in the past three years and the average dividend payout ratio in the past three years and the dividend payout ratio in the past year are both greater than 0 and less than 1", and "according to the ranking of the average cash dividend yield in the past three years from high to low, the top 100 listed company securities are selected as the index sample", and the existence of such requirements aims to improve the "linear extrapolation" of the high dividend payment behavior of dividend assets, so as to obtain a "certainty premium" in the case of rising uncertainty in the external environment.

The underlying logic of dividend investment driven by high dividends has not changed, and dividend assets are still one of the important directions for long-term allocation. Jianghai Securities said that if there is a continuous adjustment in the market trading style, it is expected to promote more funds to pay more attention to high-dividend assets, which in turn will bring about a simultaneous repair of trading activity and stock prices.

A selection of potential stocks

Yutong Bus (600066).

Zheng Coal Machine (601717).

China Shenhua (601088).

COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919).

　　3

Xiaohongshu concept: strong short-term explosiveness

On the news side, TikTok may be removed from major mobile phone app stores in the United States on January 19, 2025, even if it may resume listing in the future, out of the avoidance of uncertainty in the future, TikTok users in the United States have turned to other platforms, among them, China's Xiaohongshu platform has undertaken a large amount of traffic. On the evening of January 13, TikTok has rushed to the top of the free list of iOS app stores in the United States. In the secondary market, Xiaohongshu concept stocks started strongly, and many stocks continued to rise and fall, and the attention of funds continued to rise.

The head ecological platform has ushered in an opportunity to expand the development of the circle, or have an important impact on the ecology of related upstream and downstream industries. Ni Shuang, an analyst at Huajin Securities, pointed out that many U.S. users facing a TikTok ban have chosen to join Xiaohongshu, posting content on Xiaohongshu, sharing their lives and ideas, and even expressing dissatisfaction with the ban. In the short term, the platform ecosystem is booming, but in today's era of ideological pluralism and great power games, the importance of cybersecurity governance is increasingly evident. In the medium and long term, for the influx of overseas users, platform functions and compliance and security issues need to be optimized and improved urgently, and the introduction of relevant policies is expected to further regulate the diversified, healthy and long-term development of the network ecosystem.

Feng Cuiting, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, said that the current time point is in the early stage of a new round of Xiaohongshu going overseas, and the main beneficiaries are advertising agencies and e-commerce operators, Fushi Holdings, Jiayun Technology, Huayang Lianzhong, etc.; Worth buying in the field of e-commerce cooperation, one network and one creation, Huayang Lianzhong, etc.; Dianguang Media, Yao Ji Technology, Tianxiaxiu in the field of MCN institutions, etc.

A selection of potential stocks

Heaven and Earth Online (002995).

Gravitational Media (603598).

Blue cursor (300058).

It's worth buying (300785).