No surprises, huge losses. Huaxia Energy Network (public number hxny3060) noticed that since January, A-share and H-share listed companies have successively released 2024 annual performance forecasts. In the announced performance forecast, a large area of losses has been reproduced, exceeding industry expectations.

Up to now, the largest loss among the nine companies that have announced their performance forecasts is LONGi Green Energy (SH:601012), which was once known as "photovoltaic Mao". LONGi Green Energy expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 8.8 billion yuan in 2024, which is its first annual loss since 2013 (see the previous article "The Chill Is Still Deep!"). This photovoltaic leader has a pre-loss of more than 8 billion! 》）。

Another PV giant, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (SH:600438), is expected to have a net loss of 7 billion to 7.5 billion yuan in 2024, the first loss in its 23 years of listing (annual report); Previously, Tongwei lost nearly 4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 124.37%.

Xinte Energy and Daqo Energy, which are known as the "Four King Kongs" of silicon materials together with Tongwei, also suffered huge losses. Xinte Energy (HK:1799) expects a net loss of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan in 2024. Daqo Energy (SH:688303) expects a net loss of 2.6 billion to 3.1 billion yuan in 2024.

In addition, Risen Energy (SZ:300118), a leading module company betting on heterojunction cell technology, also announced its performance forecast, expecting a net loss of 2.7 billion to 3.5 billion yuan in 2024. Hongyuan Green Energy (SH:603185), known as "Little LONGi" and expanding against the trend in recent years, expects a net loss of 2.5 billion to 2.7 billion yuan in 2024. EGing (SH:600537), a veteran PV module manufacturer, expects a net loss of 1.9 billion to 2.3 billion yuan in 2024.

The two companies in the wafer sector, Jingyuntong (SH:601908) expects a net loss of 1.68 billion yuan to 2.45 billion yuan in 2024, and Shuangliang Energy Conservation (SH:600481) expects a net loss of 1.98 billion yuan to 1.68 billion yuan in 2024.

The total loss of the above nine leading enterprises reached 32.36-36.13 billion yuan.

In addition, there are also more pre-loss enterprises in the field of photovoltaic film. Haiyou New Materials (SH: 688680) expects a net loss of 480 million to 580 million yuan in 2024. Cybrid Technology (SH:603212) expects a net loss of 200 million to 250 million yuan in 2024. SkyOcean New Materials (SH: 603330) expects a net loss of 110 million to 220 million yuan in 2024. Mingguan New Materials (SH: 688560) expects a net loss of 60 million to 80 million yuan in 2024.

Even companies that are not losing money are doing well.

TOPCon's "first brother" JinkoSolar benefits from the iteration of N-type technology and the advantages of overseas markets, and is expected to achieve profitability in 2024. However, its expected net profit attributable to the parent company is only 80 million to 120 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.39%-98.92%, and it is on the verge of loss.

The industry had long expected the severity of the operating loss for the full year of 2024, but it did not expect it to be so difficult, and "the more difficult it is until the end of the year".

In a single quarter, the losses of most PV companies in the fourth quarter were expanding quarter-on-quarter.

According to the published financial report data in 2024, LONGi Green Energy's loss in the third quarter of 2024 will be about 1.3 billion yuan, but the loss in the fourth quarter will grow to about 1.7 billion to 2.3 billion yuan. Tongwei's loss in the third quarter of 2024 was about 800 million yuan, and the loss in the fourth quarter increased to about 3 billion to 3.5 billion yuan. JinkoSolar's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.215 billion yuan, indicating that it lost 1.095 billion to 1.135 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, turning into a loss from the previous quarter.

Most pre-loss enterprises believe that the price of the industrial chain falling below the cash cost is one of the main reasons for the loss of enterprises. According to data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2024, polysilicon prices will fall by more than 35%, wafer prices by more than 45%, and cell and module prices by more than 25%.

In addition, according to UBS Securities, in the fourth quarter of 2024, LONGi's net loss for silicon wafers and modules was 0.015 yuan/W, and the net loss for modules was 0.03 yuan/W, both of which expanded quarter-on-quarter.

However, analysts generally believe that the current price of the industrial chain has been at the bottom, and the profitability of the industry and enterprises may gradually recover in 2025.

UBS Securities believes that the profitability of PV module manufacturers may bottom out in 2025, and after the reduction of operating rates and the possible liquidation of small and medium-sized manufacturers, profitability may begin to recover from the second half of 2025.

Huatai Securities said that the cost echelon of polysilicon is obvious, and second- and third-tier enterprises have started to suspend production and maintenance earlier due to higher costs, and the possibility of subsequent resumption of production is low. Combined with the recent introduction of policies such as industry price limits and quotas, it is expected that the speed of polysilicon clearance will be accelerated as annual reports are released, and production capacity will be reduced one after another.

However, some institutions believe that there are still many uncertainties in the trend of the photovoltaic sector. Ping An Securities said that the price of photovoltaic products such as polysilicon is expected to continue to recover, but the process of production reduction and production control needs to be gradual, the digestion of inventory may take a long time, and the obvious repair of the income statement of relevant listed companies will still take time.

(Please indicate the source for reprinting, article source: Huaxia Energy Network, WeChat ID: hxny3060).