“Drill, baby, drill!” (Drill, baby, drill!) In his inaugural address on January 20, Trump once again expressed a strong preference for traditional energy sources. At the same time, he also announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement again.

"We will lower (energy) prices, replenish strategic reserves again, to the highest level. We will also export U.S. energy to the rest of the world. ”

Trump has long been regarded as a representative of the traditional energy faction. But at the same time, he has also publicly stated that he is a "strong supporter of solar energy". In the face of Trump's complex and volatile position, there is speculation inside and outside the industry about how the "America First" leader will affect the future of the global new energy industry.

On January 22, He Weiwen, executive director of the China Association of International Trade and senior researcher of the globalization think tank, said in an interview with a reporter from the Times Weekly that the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement again is undoubtedly a heavy blow to global emission reduction.

"Trump's scientific assertion that he 'doesn't believe in climate change'. This suspicion actually stems from its position of interest. The traditional oil and gas groups he represents are the base of his political support, so he must defend the capital interests of these groups. When one's interests conflict with science, it is often difficult to accept the conclusions of science. ”

The power industry is changing

Trump's series of energy propositions have a profound impact on the power industry.

In his inaugural speech on the 20th, Trump emphasized a key strategy in the energy sector: increasing the development of traditional energy resources, including coal, oil and natural gas.

At the same time, Trump made it clear in his speech that the Biden administration's Green New Deal would be scrapped, including the removal of mandatory regulations and subsidies for electric vehicles. At the same time, Trump also plans to eliminate unused funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and end subsidies for renewable energy.

Zhou Guanxun, a photovoltaic research assistant at Infolink, told the Times that for the photovoltaic industry, the most important thing at present is the subsidy of the Inflation Reduction Act. He believes that in general, the photovoltaic subsidies of the IRA bill are expected to continue, but after Trump takes office, the restrictions on Chinese enterprises may be tightened again, and Chinese new energy companies that set up factories in the United States may face more policy risks and challenges.

However, He Weiwen believes that in terms of major policies, Trump's new deal does not support new energy, but we should avoid absolute pessimism, but should be based on the actual situation, rationally observe the development of the market situation.

"After the implementation of Trump's new policy, we need to pay close attention to the specific implementation of his policies, market changes, and the pros and cons of the Chinese market. In doing so, we should seize potential opportunities and respond flexibly to challenges. He Weiwen said.

In addition, Trump also said in his inaugural address: "I will immediately begin a comprehensive reform of our trading system to protect American workers and families." ”

In fact, as early as a few years ago, EVE (300014. SZ), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074. SZ) and other lithium battery companies, as well as LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), JinkoSolar (688223. SH), Trina Solar (688599. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ) and other photovoltaic companies have successively entered the U.S. market through joint ventures and technology licensing.

Trump's new energy policy could speed up the pace of companies building factories overseas, according to several interviewees.

Zhang Guomi, an energy storage analyst at InfoLink, told the Times that the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement again, which may have an impact on its subsequent energy storage policy direction, and may reduce subsidies in the energy storage field, resulting in a decrease in investment enthusiasm in the energy storage field. Even in the face of the risk of policy changes, energy storage, as an important regulating equipment in the U.S. power system, plays a key supporting role, and there will still be a certain scale of demand in the U.S. market.

"If the new tariff policy continues to increase the tariff on energy storage lithium batteries, the export profits of major producers of energy storage lithium batteries may decrease, and the market competitiveness will decline. In the face of this situation, relevant enterprises in exporting countries will further reduce costs through technological upgrading and supply chain optimization. In addition, in order to effectively avoid the negative impact of high tariffs, these companies may also accelerate the pace of building factories overseas. Zhang Guomi said.

Guo Yanchen, chief analyst of the new industry of Founder Securities, told the Times that the purpose of the previous tariffs imposed by the United States was to encourage the return of Meitu's local manufacturing industry, but the current supply of the American optical storage industry is still insufficient, and the growth of production capacity is relatively slow, especially considering the effective production capacity and actual operating performance, it will need to rely on some imports to supplement the market gap for a considerable period of time. If Sino-US relations ease in the future, the pressure on the profitability of export-related enterprises in the photovoltaic storage industry to the United States is expected to be reduced, and with the subsequent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it is expected to further stimulate the acceleration of the implementation of photovoltaic projects in the United States.

New energy companies go to the United States to build factories

The Times Weekly reporter noticed that among the above-mentioned enterprises, many photovoltaic enterprise projects have been put into production, while most of the lithium battery enterprise projects are still in progress.

In September 2023, EVE America, a wholly-owned subsidiary of EVE, signed an agreement with Daimler Truck, PACCAR, and Electrified Power to jointly invest in the establishment of a joint venture in the United States, namely Amplify Cell Technologies LLC (ACT), to produce prismatic lithium iron phosphate batteries with an annual production capacity of about 21GWh.

At that time, the parties agreed that the total capital contribution limit of each shareholder of the joint venture company was US$2.64 billion, of which the cash capital contribution of EVE USA was capped at US$150 million, holding 10% of the equity of the joint venture. As of the first half of 2024, EVE has invested US$9.3472 million, and US$141 million has not yet been contributed.

However, EVE also said that in 2025, it is expected that the annual connected transaction amount with ACT will not exceed US$40 million, mainly to provide certain services related to the preparation, start-up and full operation of ACT's battery manufacturing plant in the United States and deliver certain deliverables.

Another A-share listed lithium battery company to build a factory in the United States is Guoxuan Hi-Tech. According to the Times reporter, Gotion Hi-Tech has a Silicon Valley project (Pack factory), an Illinois project and a Michigan project in the United States. Among them, the Pack plant has been put into operation in December 2023, while the Illinois project, Michigan and other projects are still progressing until August 2024.

In terms of photovoltaics, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, and Trina Solar have also laid out in the United States, and many projects have been put into operation, such as LONGi Green Energy's 5GW PV module factory, Canadian Solar's 5GW N-type new technology PV module factory, and JinkoSolar's 2GW PV module factory.

According to media reports, in March 2023, LONGi Green Energy will cooperate with US clean energy developer Invenergy to build a 5GW PV module factory in Ohio, USA, which will be put into operation in the first quarter of 2024.

Recently, LONGi Green Energy said that the joint venture factory in the United States is operating well, and the current products in the United States are mainly produced through the joint venture factory, and because it is made in the United States, its supply security and stability will be higher.

On January 21, LONGi Green Energy told a reporter from Times Weekly that when choosing to expand overseas, enterprises should not only consider many factors such as local policy and legal environment, geographical location, economic basic conditions and market size, but also fully assess potential opportunities and risks from a medium and long-term perspective, so the company maintains a cautious attitude towards overseas expansion at this stage.

Canadian Solar also has manufacturing facilities in the United States. Canadian Solar has established a 5GW N-type new technology PV module factory ("Module Factory") and a 5GW high-efficiency N-type cell project in Mesquite, Texas and Jeffersonville, Indiana, respectively. Among them, the module factory has been put into operation in 2023, and the delivery of 210 size products will start in the first quarter of 2024; The battery plant is undergoing the construction of the civil part and the design of the mechanical and electrical part, and is expected to be put into operation in 2025.

In addition, JinkoSolar's 2GW PV module production capacity in the United States has also been completed and put into operation, and it is expected to increase in 2025. At the same time, JinkoSolar issued GDRs to raise 4.500 billion yuan, of which 499 million yuan is planned to be invested in 1GW high-efficiency module projects in the United States

While PV companies are building factories in the United States, Trina Solar has chosen to sell its 5GW module plant in the United States to a local company.

In November 2024, Trina Solar announced the sale of Trina Solar US Manufacturing Module 1, LLC (hereinafter referred to as "TUM1"), the core asset of its wholly-owned subsidiary Trina Solar (Schweiz) AG, to FREYR in exchange for equity, and subscribed for a 19.08% stake in the latter's private placement.

TUM1 is Trina Solar's 5GW module factory in the U.S. that will be commissioned soon. Upon completion of the transaction, TUM1 will become a U.S.-based company and realize the localization of capital. At the same time, Trina Solar will have a seat on the board of directors of FREYR, and the chief operating officer and chief strategy officer of FREYR will also be appointed by Trina Solar.