From upstream to downstream, the PV industry chain is facing losses across the board.

On January 21, Oujing Technology (001269) disclosed its 2024 performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 450 million yuan to 550 million yuan. Oujing Technology is mainly engaged in the production of quartz crucibles, which belongs to the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain.

Wind data shows that as of January 21, 30 A-share photovoltaic companies have taken the lead in issuing performance forecasts, of which 13 have lost money for the first time, 7 have continued to lose money, 6 have pre-decreased, and 2 have pre-increased.

For the reasons for the performance loss, many companies have mentioned "product price decline" and "asset impairment provision", such as Oujing Technology, Daqo Energy (688303. SH), Risen Energy (300118. SZ), EGing Optoelectronics (600537. SH) and so on.

Oujing Technology said that in 2024, the market volatility of the photovoltaic industry will be huge, the imbalance between supply and demand, and the impact of the photovoltaic industry's production capacity clearance and destocking, the demand for quartz crucible products from downstream customers will be greatly reduced, resulting in a decrease in operating rate, a decline in product prices, an increase in asset impairment provisions, and a phased loss in the company's operating performance.

In the secondary market, on January 21, the photovoltaic concept index fell 0.33%, and LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH) fell 2.25%, and Tongwei (600438. SH) fell 4.63%, and JinkoSolar (688223. SH) fell by 2.50%. However, there are also Baoxin Technology (002514. SZ), Haoli Technology (002729. SZ), Senyuan Electric (002358. SZ) and other stocks.

There are already 20 companies that have pre-losses

The

performance of the three giants of integrated photovoltaic enterprises is declining, and Tongwei shares may record the largest loss in its history.

According to the performance forecast, LONGi Green Energy expects a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of 8.2 billion yuan to 8.8 billion yuan in 2024; Tongwei expects a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of about 7 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan in 2024; JinkoSolar expects net profit attributable to the parent company to be 80 million yuan to 120 million yuan in 2024.

In contrast, the net profit attributable to the parent company of these three companies in 2023 will be 10.751 billion yuan, 13.574 billion yuan, and 7.440 billion yuan respectively.

Regarding the performance loss, Tongwei Co., Ltd. said that under the impact of the sharp decline in the market price of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain, and even continued to be lower than the industry's cash cost, and the impact of the impairment and scrapping of long-term assets of about 1 billion yuan throughout the year, the company still recorded a loss for the whole year although it maintained a net inflow of operating cash flow.

LONGi Green Energy also said that during the reporting period, due to the intensification of competition in the industry, the company's BC second-generation product output accounted for a very low proportion, the price and gross profit margin of PERC and TOPCon products continued to decline, the operating capacity utilization rate was limited, the technology iteration led to an increase in asset impairment provisions, and the investment income of polysilicon companies with equity participation incurred losses, resulting in periodic losses in operating performance.

Polysilicon and wafer companies have also begun to lose money. Daqo Energy, Hongyuan Green Energy (603185. SH), Shuangliang Energy Conservation (600481. SH) expects to achieve its first loss in 2024. Among them, Daqo Energy is expected to lose 2.6 billion yuan to 3.1 billion yuan in 2024; Hongyuan Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.5 billion yuan to 2.7 billion yuan in 2024; Shuangliang Energy Conservation expects a net loss of 1.98 billion to 1.68 billion yuan in 2024.

The field of battery components is no exception. Risen Energy expects a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.7 billion to 3.5 billion yuan in 2024; EGing Optoelectronics expects a net profit attributable to the parent company to be a loss of 1.9 billion yuan to 2.3 billion yuan in 2024, compared to; Yicheng New Energy expects a net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2024 to be between 600 million yuan and 700 million yuan; Aerospace Electromechanical(600151. SH) expects a net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2024 of 62 million yuan to 90 million yuan.

In addition, Ancai Hi-Tech (600207. SH), Mingguan New Materials (688560. SH) and Haiyou New Materials and other photovoltaic auxiliary materials companies continued to lose money.

Wind data shows that as of January 21, 30 A-share photovoltaic companies have issued performance forecasts, of which 13 have suffered their first loss, 7 have continued to lose, 6 have pre-decreased, and only 2 have pre-increased.

On the whole, the large-scale loss of the photovoltaic industry in 2024 may be a foregone conclusion, and the main reason for the loss is that the decline in product prices has seriously squeezed profit margins, and enterprises are under huge operating pressure.

Fang Sichun, a senior photovoltaic analyst at InfoLink, told Times that the decline in the price of the photovoltaic industry chain is not caused by a single factor, but by the substantial expansion of supply chain capacity, the accumulation of inventory pressure in various links, the adjustment of manufacturers' utilization rate and sales strategy, and the lower than expected end market demand.

In 2025, the industry is at the dawn of recovery

It is worth noting that although the performance of PV companies in 2024 is generally poor, in 2025, there will be positive changes in the price of the PV industry chain. Polysilicon prices have bottomed out, signaling a recovery in the industry.

According to the latest data disclosed by the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, polysilicon transaction prices have risen slightly for two consecutive weeks since January 2025. In the week of January 15, the transaction price range of N-type re-feeding materials was 39,000 yuan/ton to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 41,700 yuan/ton, up 0.48% month-on-month, and the transaction price range of N-type granular silicon was 38,000 yuan/ton to 41,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 39,000 yuan/ton, up 0.52% month-on-month.

The bottoming out of polysilicon prices and the linkage of prices in other parts of the industry chain show that the industry is gradually adjusting and recovering. In fact, Fang Sichun explained, the current supply chain can no longer afford the impact of negative gross margins, and in this context, manufacturers can no longer afford to maintain high utilization rates.

"Recently, we have observed that manufacturers have made significant adjustments in the utilization rate to cope with the sales off-season in the next first quarter (Q1). Manufacturers in the intermediate link are also adjusting their production lines at this time to adapt to the subsequent development trend of the industry. Solidarity and cooperation between manufacturers are driving the industry in a more positive direction. Fang Sichun said.

However, there are still many challenges for the industry to achieve a full recovery. According to the research report of Ping An Securities, the sharp losses of the leading enterprises reflect the fierce competition in the photovoltaic industry, and the fierce competition reflects the serious homogenization of the main links of the current photovoltaic module industry chain. "At present, the rise of BC battery technology is expected to become the next generation of mainstream battery technology and realize industrialization quickly, which may be a breakthrough to break the homogenization dilemma."

"Considering that the terminal demand in the first quarter is relatively weak, the acceptance of downstream buyers is relatively low for the time being, the speed of inventory removal will be relatively moderate, and the sales strategy of manufacturers is still differentiated, so the current price rise rate is slow. There is still a wait-and-see sentiment in the supply chain, and the game of polysilicon price hikes will continue until after the Chinese New Year. Fang Sichun said.