According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2024, China's inverter exports amounted to 4.8 billion yuan, +12%/+10% year-on-year/month-on-month, respectively. In terms of regions, in Asia, India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia performed well. In December, China's inverter exports to India amounted to 250 million yuan, +11%/+8% year-on-year/month-on-month respectively; The Indian authorities are brewing a policy of compulsory distribution and storage of wind and solar, which is expected to promote the development of large reserves. The amount of inverters exported to Pakistan in December was 140 million yuan, +95%/+35% year-on-year/month-on-month respectively, and the expected decline in electricity prices led to a wait-and-see period from October to November, and a month-on-month recovery in December.

The main views of Ping An Securities are as follows:

The export value of inverters rebounded in December compared with the previous month

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2024, China's inverter exports amounted to 4.8 billion yuan, +12%/+10% year-on-year/month-on-month, respectively. In 2024, China's inverter exports will total 58.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. In 2024, Europe, Asia, and Latin America will be the top three markets for China's export of inverters, accounting for 39%/34%/13% of the export value, respectively. In December, the amount of inverters exported to Europe/Asia/Latin America was 16.1/18.2/530 million yuan, +32%/+5%/-20% month-on-month, respectively, the European market rebounded significantly month-on-month, the Asian market continued to grow month-on-month, and the monthly export amount exceeded Europe for two consecutive months; The Latin American market has fallen month-on-month, which may be affected by factors such as the Christmas holiday.

Asia: Growth in 2024, with India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia performing well in December

In 2024, China's inverter exports to Asia will be 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%. The export value in December was 1.82 billion yuan, +13%/+5% year-on-year/month-on-month, respectively. In 2024, India and Pakistan in South Asia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East, and Japan will be the main regions for China's inverter exports to Asia.

In terms of monthly exports, India and Pakistan rebounded month-on-month in December, while South Korea and the Philippines increased month-on-month. In December, China's inverter exports to India amounted to 250 million yuan, +11%/+8% year-on-year/month-on-month respectively; The Indian authorities are brewing a policy of compulsory distribution and storage of wind and solar, which is expected to promote the development of large reserves. The amount of inverters exported to Pakistan in December was 140 million yuan, +95%/+35% year-on-year/month-on-month respectively, and the expected decline in electricity prices led to a wait-and-see period from October to November, and a month-on-month recovery in December. In November and December, China's exports to Southeast Asia inverters amounted to 3.7 and 410 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% and 37% respectively, and the demand in the southern hemisphere in spring and summer picked up significantly.

Europe: The decline in 2024 will be larger, and the major markets will recover month-on-month in December

In 2024, China will export 23.2 billion yuan of inverters to Europe, a year-on-year decrease of 41%. Among them, the export value in December was 1.61 billion yuan, +12%/+32% year-on-year respectively. In December, the amount of inverters exported by China to the Netherlands and Germany rebounded month-on-month, and the export value of inverters from Hungary, Italy and Denmark increased by more than 100% month-on-month. In 2024, the amount of inverters exported by China to Germany will be 3.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53%; The export value in December was 180 million yuan, -44%/+30% year-on-year/month-on-month respectively. From December 2024 to January 2025, Germany has experienced ultra-high electricity prices and negative electricity prices, and the fluctuation of electricity prices shows the impact of a high proportion of wind and solar installations on the power system.

Latin America and Africa: Latin America fell in a single month, and Africa recovered month-on-month

In 2024, China's exports to Latin America inverters will be 7.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%; The monthly export value in December was 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -14%/-20%, respectively, and the month-on-month performance was weak, which may be affected by factors such as the Christmas holiday. Brazil is the most important market for China's inverter exports to Latin America, accounting for 69% of the inverter value exported to Latin America in 2024. In 2024, China will export 3.67 billion yuan of inverters to Africa, a year-on-year decrease of 26%; The monthly export value in December was 360 million yuan, +47%/+47% year-on-year respectively, and the month-on-month performance picked up. In 2024, China's inverter exports to South Africa and Nigeria will account for 32% and 22% respectively, and in 2023, they will account for 72% and 7% respectively, and South Africa's annual export value will decrease by 67%, but small base markets such as Nigeria, Morocco, Kenya, and Mali will grow rapidly.

Investment advice

In December, emerging markets (India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia) and traditional markets (Europe) both showed a recovery, and leading companies in each segment of the inverter were recommended. Recommended: Sungrow (300274.SZ), which is leading in the process of large storage going overseas and has won large orders in the Middle East and Europe; Deye shares (605117.SH), which is deeply involved in emerging markets and has strong strength; Sineng Electric (300827.SZ) with leading strength in emerging markets such as the Middle East and India and large storage going to sea smoothly. It is recommended to pay attention to: Tongrun equipment (002150.SZ) with excellent competitiveness in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea markets; The leader of domestic micro-inverter, Hoymiles shares (688032.SH) with promising performance in Europe and Latin America.

Risk Warning

The risk that the growth of market demand in various markets is less than expected, the risk of intensifying competition in the global market, and the risk of tightening market restrictions.