Recently, InfoLink Consulting, an industry information agency, released the 2024 global photovoltaic module shipment rankings. The agency said that last year's shipment data showed that the trend of "big Evergrande" was more obvious. In addition, against the backdrop of increasing overseas geopolitical risks, module manufacturers have been affected in the allocation of shipment weights.

The top 4 manufacturers contributed 60% of the top 10 shipments

In 2024, the global demand for installed photovoltaic capacity and the scale of the industry will continue to grow, but at the same time, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry will become more and more prominent. Under the fierce competition in the industry, the Matthew effect of the PV module shipment market has been enhanced.

According to InfoLink's latest module shipment ranking information, in 2024, JinkoSolar (688223. SH), LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ), Trina Solar (688599. SH) is one of the top four manufacturers in the world in terms of module shipments. Tongwei shares (600438. SH), Chint New Energy, Canadian Solar (688472. SH), GCL Integration (002506. SZ), Yiyi Xinneng, and Yingli Group ranked fifth to tenth respectively.

The top four manufacturers in terms of global shipments contribute to 60% of the total shipments of the top 10 manufacturers.

InfoLink said that since 2019, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar, four vertically integrated factories, have all stuck to the top four positions, and the trend of "Greater Evergrande" has become more pronounced in recent years, with a shipment gap of more than 30% compared with the lower-ranked manufacturers.

Judging from the market performance of the top 10 shipping companies, in 2024, affected by the growth of domestic installed demand and overseas trade barriers, the proportion of shipments of photovoltaic module products of Chinese enterprises in the domestic market will show an increasing trend, and the shipments in the domestic market will account for nearly 60%.

According to InfoLink's analysis, domestic demand is still relatively stable for Chinese manufacturers, with the top 10 module manufacturers shipping 289 GW of domestic shipments, accounting for nearly 60% (58%) of the average shipments.

In terms of technology, although the market has frequently set off controversies about the technology route of next-generation photovoltaic cells, according to InfoLink's 2024 global module shipment ranking information, the shipments of photovoltaic modules with N-type TOPCon technology in 2024 accounted for nearly 70% of the total shipments, which is still the product with the highest market share.

According to InfoLink, N-type TOPCon modules accounted for nearly 70% of total shipments, P-type PERC modules accounted for 22% of total shipments, and BC modules accounted for about 3%.

What is the market expectation in 2025

From 2020 to 2023, the annual growth rate of global PV module shipments will be around 50%, and the annual growth rate of global PV module shipments will be halved in 2024. According to InfoLink statistics, global PV module shipments in 2024 will be 502GW, an increase of 22% from 413GW in 2023, and the annual growth rate is significantly narrower than in previous years.

"In the second half of 2024, module manufacturers' shipment growth will begin to narrow, which is not as good as the increase in the past three or four quarters," InfoLink said. Under the situation of weak market demand and supply exceeding demand, it has been unable to achieve substantial annual growth momentum. ”

"Global PV module shipments are expected to be between 559GW and 603GW in 2025." InfoLink said that compared with the shipment target in 2024, it can be seen that manufacturers' expectations for 2025 are mainly stable. Some manufacturers said that they would adjust according to the order situation, and some manufacturers even set this year's target to control the loss range.

LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH) said that under the high base, the subsequent demand of the domestic photovoltaic market will enter a stage of steady development under the influence of consumption pressure. At the same time, the policy level will continue to support the vigorous development of new energy in deserts, deserts, the Gobi region and the construction sector, which is expected to bring new demand opportunities.

Talking about the company's global production capacity launch plan in 2025, Trina Solar (688599. SH) management recently communicated with institutional investors, saying that in the future, the company's production capacity will not focus on horizontal expansion of scale, but on vertical and in-depth understanding of customer needs and regional characteristics. "The company will be on a global scale, focusing on scattered production capacity, similar to the company's production capacity in Indonesia, the scale is not large, the investment is not high, but it can radiate the regional market and resist the risk of international trade."

The PV Industry Self-Regulatory Initiative is in effect. InfoLink said that after the self-discipline behavior at the end of 2024 gradually ferments and controls production scheduling, it will indeed have the effect of curbing the decline in PV module prices. "However, there are still many low-priced PV modules circulating in the market, which has lowered the overall average price of the market."

JinkoSolar said in its 2024 performance forecast that looking forward to 2025, with the continuous and in-depth adjustment of the photovoltaic industry, uncompetitive production capacity will face rapid liquidation. "Under the spontaneous adjustment of the industry, the price of the industrial chain has shown a stabilization signal, and the relationship between supply and demand in the industry is expected to accelerate the rebalancing."

According to InfoLink, in the current market competition landscape, PV module manufacturers must pay more attention to the quality of their products if they want to stand out from the encirclement. For PV module products, wattage, quality and efficiency performance will be the key factors for module manufacturers to stand out from the competition.