(Source: Zhongyuan Securities Research Institute).

Lithium batteries

Market review: The lithium battery index rose 1.31% in this period, while the CSI 300 index fell 2.22% in the same period, and the sector outperformed the CSI 300 index.

Industry information and trends:

1. Xiaomi Auto officially launched the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra at the new product launch conference, with a starting price of 529,900 yuan for this high-end positioning and powerful performance model. (First Electric Vehicle Network).

2. Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, launched the second batch of pilot areas for the comprehensive electrification of public sector vehicles in 10 cities. According to the work plan, it is expected that more than 250,000 new energy vehicles will be promoted in 10 cities, and more than 240,000 charging piles will be built. (China Charging Alliance).

3. Industry price tracking. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, as of February 28, 2025: the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 74,800 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous period; The price of lithium hydroxide was 73,400 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous period; The price of electrolytic cobalt was 181,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.38% from the previous period; The price of lithium iron phosphate was 35,700 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of the previous period; The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 59,500 yuan/ton, down 3.25% from the previous period; The price of electrolyte was 19,400 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of the previous period. (Baichuan Yingfu).

Investment suggestion: Macro policies generally encourage the development of the new energy vehicle industry, China's new energy vehicle sales will grow at a high rate in January 2025, and the short-term industrial chain price will be generally stable. Combined with the industry prosperity, the price trend of the industrial chain and the market trend, it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the sector in the short term.

Risk warning: changes in industry policies; Raw material prices fluctuate wildly; sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations; Competition in the industry has intensified.

Chemicals

Market review: The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index fell 0.27% in this period, and the CSI 300 Index fell 2.22% in the same period, and the industry performance was stronger than the CSI 300 Index, ranking 12th among the 30 CITIC first-class industries. Among the third-level sub-sectors of CITIC, 26 sub-sectors rose, 7 sub-sectors fell, and the modified plastics, electronic chemicals and other plastic products sectors performed first.

Industry information and trends:

1. This week, 77 of the chemical products tracked by Zhuochuang Information rose and 145 fell, and the rise and fall ratio was weaker than last week. The better performance is: ammonium chloride, sulfur, sulfuric acid, electrolytic cobalt, potassium chloride, etc. In the past month, the varieties with good performance include: petroleum coke, sulfur, potassium chloride, antioxidants, glycerin, residual oil, ammonium chloride, etc.

Investment suggestions: First, continue to pay attention to the potash fertilizer industry, and the recent rise in potassium chloride prices has been larger. In the long run, potash fertilizer has strong resource attributes, the global potash fertilizer resources are unevenly distributed, and the industry supply pattern is highly concentrated. China's potash fertilizer resources are relatively scarce, and the dependence on imports is large. The supply and demand of the potash sector have tightened, driving the price of potash fertilizer to continue to rise since 2024. The US-Canada trade conflict may further push up potash prices.

The second is the polyester filament industry, since 2023, China's textile and garment field has shown a relatively obvious recovery trend, driving the growth of polyester filament demand. In 2024, the output and demand of polyester filament in China will grow rapidly. The expansion of polyester filament production capacity in China is nearing the end, and the industry's production capacity will shrink in 2024. In the future, the new production capacity will be relatively limited and concentrated with leading enterprises, which will promote the continuous improvement of industry concentration. Driven by downstream demand, the operating rate of the polyester filament industry is at a high level in recent years, and the industry's inventory is running at a low level. With the further recovery of demand, the industry is expected to continue to improve.

The third is the organic silicon industry, since 2025, with the slowdown of industry capacity expansion, the supply pressure of the organic silicon industry is expected to weaken significantly. With the growth of demand in downstream emerging fields, the supply and demand of the industry are expected to improve, bringing about an increase in the prosperity of the industry.

Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate sharply, product prices fall sharply, and environmental protection policies are lower than expected.

New materials

Market review: The new materials index fell 0.46% in this period, and the CSI 300 index fell 2.22% in the same period, and the industry performance was slightly stronger than the CSI 300 index. Electronic chemicals, carbon fiber and other sub-sectors rose first, and various sub-sectors rose and fell: lithium battery chemicals (3.75%), semiconductor materials (1.21%), other new metal materials (0.38%), carbon fiber (-2.49%), industrial gases (-2.67%), rare earth and magnetic materials (-3.16%), membrane materials (-3.35%), electronic chemicals (-3.73%), superhard materials (-4.22%), and organic silicon (-4.29%).

Industry information and trends:

1. On January 27, Beijing issued the "Beijing Action Plan for Accelerating the Innovation and Development of "Artificial Intelligence + New Materials" (2025-2027)", which requires that by 2027, Beijing's "artificial intelligence + new materials" innovation ability will be significantly enhanced, a new generation of material science large atomic models will be released, more than 10 vertical models and independent core software will be developed, and 15 AI-empowered benchmark new material products will be formed; It has built a service portal for the main platform of the new material big data center and a cluster of data resource nodes, built a number of intelligent laboratories and public service platforms for new materials, and built a demonstration base for the integration and innovation of "artificial intelligence + new materials"; Promote the cultivation of new material R&D services to make positive progress, and form an international leading source of new material innovation and artificial intelligence application highland. (Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission).

Investment advice: The industry performance in this period is slightly stronger than that of the CSI 300 Index. As a national strategic emerging industry, new materials have determined growth attributes and are strongly supported by the state. In the context of the promotion of new industrialization and the in-depth adjustment of industrial structure, the rapid development of downstream fields such as commercial aerospace, computing power, humanoid robots, and superconductivity will drive the demand for upstream new materials.

Risk warning: changes in industry policies; Upstream raw material prices fluctuate sharply; The progress of new materials related technologies is not as expected.

Light manufacturing

Market review: The light industry manufacturing (CITIC) industry index rose 0.38% in this period, while the CSI 300 index fell 2.22% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.60pct, ranking 7th among the 30 CITIC primary industries. Subdivided the rise and fall ranking of secondary sub-sectors: home furnishing (0.96%), entertainment light industry (0.65%), other light industry (0.53%), paper (0.22%), packaging and printing (-0.16%).

Industry information and trends:

1. From February 25th to 27th, Nine Dragons Paper, Guangdong Lee & Man Paper, Dongguan Jinzhou Paper, Hubei Changyang Paper, Fuzhou Lifeng Paper and other paper companies announced that they would increase prices by 30 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton from early March, mainly involving corrugated paper and kraft cardboard. Some paper companies said in the price increase letter that due to the long-term high production costs, the company has suffered serious losses. Affected by the base paper market, some cardboard mills in South China have announced that they will rise in the near future. For example, Shengyuan Paper Products in Sihui City, since 8 a.m. on February 27, the third layer has risen by 3 cents per square meter, the fourth layer has risen by 5 cents per square meter, and the fifth layer has risen by 5 cents per square meter. (Source: Paper Network).

2. On February 21, Tsingshan Paper issued an announcement to review and approve the "Proposal on the Implementation of the Technical Transformation Project Change Project". In order to comply with the development trend of "bamboo instead of wood" and "bamboo instead of plastic", give full play to the advantages of bamboo and wood medium and long fiber pulp and paper industry, actively explore the new green packaging paper market, give full play to the demonstration and leading role of leading enterprises, drive the coordinated development of regional green circular economy industry, and enhance the resilience and new kinetic energy of economic development, according to the feasibility analysis of relevant projects and combined with the company's own resource optimization allocation plan, the company plans to implement the original technical transformation project to build a bamboo pulp technical transformation project with an annual output of 200,000 tons. Through the project, the company's new and old kinetic energy conversion will be promoted, and the company's main pulp and paper business will be promoted to green, low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development. The construction period of the project is 18 months, and the total investment of the project is 393,146,400 yuan, and the source of funds is self-raised by the enterprise. (Source: Paper Network).

3. March to May is the traditional peak season of the paper industry, affected by the strong demand for finished paper, the operating load rate of the base paper market has increased, driving the demand for pulp to rise, and the price of imported softwood pulp has climbed one after another. The latest price of wood pulp of Chilean Arauco Company in March 2025 is 825 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton; Hardwood pulp star 610 US dollars / ton, up 20 US dollars / ton. Industry data also shows that the prices of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp have shown varying degrees of increase compared with the beginning of the year. The daily average prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp were 6584.46 yuan/ton and 4945.91 yuan/ton respectively, up 191.96 yuan/ton and 267.5 yuan/ton respectively compared with the beginning of January. Affected by rising costs, in order to alleviate the pressure on papermaking costs, domestic paper prices have been intensively raised recently. Wuzhou Special Paper, Huajin Group, and Sun Paper have announced that from March 1, 2025, all cultural paper will be raised by 200 yuan per ton on the basis of the existing price. APP (China) announced that from March 1, 2025, the price of copperplate, non-coated paper grades and gram weight paper products produced by Jindong and Jinhai will be increased by 200 yuan/ton (tax included) on the basis of February 2025. Nine Dragons Paper also announced that from March 1, 2025, the all-wood pulp cultural paper series products will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the basis of the existing price. Bohui Paper announced that from March 1, 2025, the price of non-coated paper products will be increased by 200 yuan per ton (including tax) on the basis of the existing price. Asia Symbol announced that from March 1, 2025, the price of offset paper and electrostatic copy paper will be increased by 200 yuan per ton (tax included) on the basis of the existing price. (Source: Paper Network).

Investment suggestions: papermaking, imported pulp prices have risen one after another, softwood pulp, hardwood pulp prices have risen to varying degrees compared with the beginning of the year, in order to alleviate the pressure of rising costs, large paper companies announced that they will raise product prices from March, and some packaging paper mills have also issued a price increase letter, the paper industry is greatly affected by consumer demand, it is a pro-cyclical industry, the country to boost consumption policy stimulus, the industry is expected to benefit, it is recommended to pay attention to the head enterprises with the advantages of forest pulp and paper integration and the leader of the special paper industry. The Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the "renewal" of home decoration and kitchen and bathroom in 2025, and various localities formulated landing plans in combination with the actual local situation, superimposed on the promotion festival in March, which is expected to stimulate home consumption.

Risk warning: the risk that macroeconomic growth is less than expected; the risk of increased competition in the industry; the risk that demand will fall short of expectations; The risk of a significant increase in raw material prices.

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery

Market review: The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (CITIC) Index fell 0.91%, the CSI 300 Index fell 2.22%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry outperformed the benchmark index by 1.31 percentage points. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sub-industries, the feed processing sector rose first this week, and the seed industry sector fell first.

Industry information and trends:

1. Pig breeding: According to the tracking of Zhuochuang Information, the average trading price of live pigs (three yuan) this week was 14.84 yuan/kg, down 0.87% from the previous month; The highest price was 14.99 yuan/kg on the 21st, and the lowest price was 14.69 yuan/kg on the 27th. This week, the average profit of self-breeding and self-raising in the country was 208.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.42 yuan/head from the previous month. The average fattening profit of piglets was 110.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/head from the previous month. On the supply side, the overall supply of live pigs in March increased month-on-month, which was bearish; The end market demand is weak, and the secondary fattening is still rolling to fill the column, which may restrict the decline in pig prices to a certain extent. It is expected that the national market will continue to be weak and volatile in the coming week, and the price range may be 14.46-14.68 yuan/kg.

2. White feather broilers: According to the tracking of Zhuochuang Information, the average price of domestic white feather broiler chicks this week was 2.36 yuan / bird, up 0.24 yuan / bird from the previous month, an increase of 11.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.38%; The average purchase price of white-feathered broilers was 2.94 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from last week, an increase of 2.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.64%. This week, the domestic white feather broiler chick hatching loss was 0.49 yuan / bird, an increase of 43.64% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 59.07%; The loss of domestic white feather broiler breeding was 2.65 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.38 yuan/piece from last week, an increase of 12.54%, a year-on-year decrease of 477.60%; The theoretical slaughtering profit of white-feathered broilers was 3.26 yuan/piece, down 24.36% month-on-month and 824.44% year-on-year. The theoretical profit of the industrial chain was 0.12 yuan/piece, a decrease of 78.18% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 87.23%. On the supply side, this week, Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 54.0388 million seedlings of white-feathered broiler sample enterprises, an increase of 0.08% month-on-month and 8.76% year-on-year. It is expected that the white feather broiler industry chain may rise in a narrow range next week.

Investment suggestion: The reduction of the production capacity of fertile sows since the beginning of 2023 has been reflected in the slaughter of commercial pigs and the supply of piglets in 2024. In 2024, the average price of live pigs (three yuan) will be about 16.8 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of about 12.8%. At the same time, the pressure on feed prices on the cost side has been eased year-on-year, and it is expected that the overall profitability of the aquaculture industry will be significantly improved in 2024. In addition, the scale of China's white-feathered broiler market has grown steadily, and the price of pigs has stabilized, and the price of meat and poultry is expected to open up room for rebound.

Risk warning: raw material prices, livestock and poultry prices have fallen, animal diseases, food safety issues, etc.

Food & Beverage

Market review: In this period, the food and beverage sector rose 1.87%, and the market rebounded and rose strongly, and the market shifted to consumption. The sub-sectors generally rose, among which prepared food, snack food, beer and dairy products rose more, rising by 2.2%, 4.38%, 3.25% and 4.57% respectively in the current period. In this period, the CSI 300 fell by 2.22%, and the food and beverage sector outperformed the index.

Industry information and trends:

1. PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Nestle and other companies emphasize the layout of all-weather consumption scenarios, Pepsi has launched culturally diversified products (such as India's Kurkure entering the U.S. market), and Coca-Cola has increased its investment in emerging markets and AI marketing. （2025-02-26，ITBEAR）

2. Mondelēz International has achieved growth despite the soaring cost of cocoa and plans to expand the cake category; Kraft Heinz tackles consumer downgrade with packaging innovation and cost-effectiveness strategies. （2025-02-26，ITBEAR）

3. The National Liquor Standardization Committee issued a draft of the "General Principles of Liquor Quality" for comments, but the difference in the EU's recognition standards for "aged liquor" is still a major obstacle, and an international mutual recognition regulatory system needs to be established. (2025-02-28, CICC Online).

Investment suggestion: In 2025, the revenue growth of listed food and beverage companies is expected to remain at a single-digit level, slightly higher than that of the industry as a whole; In the longer term, the revenue growth of the food and beverage sector is likely to narrow further. Based on the macro situation, we judge that the cost environment in 2025 will still be friendly, and the cost pressure of listed companies will be relatively small, which will play a supporting role in corporate profits in the stage of a significant slowdown in revenue growth. In 2025, it is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in sectors such as soft drinks, pre-mixed drinks, snacks and yeast.

Risk Warning: Residents' income and domestic market consumption are not as good as expected, and the domestic consumer market continues to be sluggish; Overseas markets are facing the risk of policy adjustment, and the uncertainty of export tariffs is greater; Some upstream raw materials are at risk of rising prices.

Securities

Market review: The current brokerage index was pressed back at the beginning of the week, tried to rebound again in the middle of the week and hit a new high in the closing of the year, followed by a sharp decline in various equity indices on Friday, and closed at a weekly low. CITIC Secondary Industry Index Securities II fell 2.97% in the period, underperforming the CSI 300 Index (down 2.22%) by 0.75 percentage points, ranking 23rd compared with the 30 CITIC Primary Industry Indices, down 13 places from the previous month. The brokerage sector in this period has fallen across the board, among them, the overall performance of the head brokerage has been relatively stronger than the previous month, and individual stocks have risen against the trend and led the rise of the sector, and most of the stocks that have fallen have fallen relatively small and are in the upper half of the rise and fall of the sector, only the decline of the industry leader CITIC Securities is relatively large; The overall performance of small and medium-sized and flexible brokerages further weakened month-on-month, and almost all of them in the lower half of the sector were small and medium-sized brokers, and most of the small and medium-sized brokerages underperformed the brokerage index in this period. In this period, the brokerage sector still maintains a somewhat structural market, and the market is mainly concentrated in individual leading brokerages. The average P/B of the brokerage sector in this period was the highest of 1.46 times, the lowest was 1.41 times, and the highest and lowest increased simultaneously month-on-month, and as of the close of trading on February 28, the average P/B of the brokerage sector was 1.41 times.

Investment suggestion: The overall business environment of the securities industry is expected to continue to recover in 2025, and the overall operating performance of the securities industry is expected to continue to rebound, and is expected to enter a new round of upward cycle. At present, the average valuation of the brokerage sector is still below the average P/B of 1.55 times since 2016, which provides a good opportunity for the redeployment of the brokerage sector. In the short cycle, although the brokerage index fell significantly on Friday, it is still in the horizontal narrow range of the shock range built since February, and it is expected that the brokerage index will still maintain a finishing pattern, waiting for the opening of the next round of resonance rising cycle between the brokerage sector and various equity indexes, and actively maintain continuous attention to the brokerage sector.

Risk Warning: 1. The degree of improvement in the fundamentals of the securities industry due to fluctuations in the equity and fixed income markets is less than expected, 2. The risk of short-term stock price fluctuations, and 3. The policy effect of capital market reform is less than expected.

Mechanical

Market review: The CS machinery sector fell 1.84% in this period, outperforming the CSI 300 (-2.22%) by 0.38 percentage points, ranking 19th among the 30 CS first-class industries. This week, the sub-sectors of construction machinery, forklifts, and photovoltaic equipment performed first, and boilers, service robots, and industrial robots performed behind.

Industry information and trends:

1. On February 24, Li Tianwei, the new director of the Department of Atmosphere of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, made his debut at a regular press conference and unexpectedly took out a drawing board. "This graph shows the particulate matter emitted by diesel vehicles for 100 kilometers from China zero to China VI emission standards. You can see that from 293 grams to 1.5 grams, the performance improvement brought about by technological progress is revolutionary. In fact, over the years, China has been continuously improving the emission standards for mobile sources, and the progress made is also historic. He told the media, including the "China Times" reporter, that the next step is that China will benchmark the advanced laws and regulations of Europe and the United States, and study and formulate the National VII standard for light vehicles and heavy vehicles. (Data source: China Times).

2. Green Harmonic (688017) disclosed the 2024 performance express report on the evening of February 27, and the company achieved operating income of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.34%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 56.978 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.29%; deducted non-net profit of 46.9672 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.07%; The basic earnings per share was 0.34 yuan, and the weighted average return on equity was 2.83%. (Data source: China Securities Journal, China Securities Network).

3. On February 25, the signing ceremony of XCMG strategic investors was successfully held in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. With the support of 30 strategic investors, XCMG completed the equity diversification reform and the signing and introduction of strategic investors, and set the largest single in the field of commercial vehicle financing in China in the past five years with a financing amount of 6.444 billion yuan. This milestone measure marks a solid step forward for XCMG on the road of mixed reform and ushered in a new spring. The mixed reform of XCMG Automobile is also another strategic landmark major reform after the mixed reform of XCMG Co., Ltd. (Data source: Economic Information Daily).

4. On February 25, Sany Pump Division, a subsidiary of Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., held a new product launch conference of "New Quality Pilot Life and Extraordinary" in Changsha, and more than 500 industry representatives witnessed the unveiling of 2025 pumping equipment. The new products focus on intelligent, electrified and low-carbon technologies. Through 32 city surveys and more than 130 customer interviews, the Sany team optimized product performance, adopted the release and delivery mode of new products, connected to 25 regions across the country in real time, and held 450 sets of 2025 new products across the country to be delivered and put into operation at the same time. The signing of contracts at the event site continued, and orders for 540 sets were signed in a single event, with a total amount of 420 million yuan. (Data source: Securities Daily).

5. On the evening of February 26, Neway CNC released the announcement of the 2024 annual performance express report, and the company's total operating income in 2024 will be 2,462,138,135.21 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.08%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 323,498,365.92 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.84%. (Data source: Securities Daily).

6. On the evening of February 26, Shengmei Shanghai (688082. SH) officially released its 2024 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 5.618 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.48%; the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.65%; The net profit after deduction reached 1.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%. (Source: Securities Times).

7. Zhichun Technology announced on the evening of February 27 that the company intends to purchase 83.7775% of the shares of Guizhou Weidun Crystal Phosphorus Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. held by 24 counterparties including Beijing Weidun International Trade Co., Ltd. and raise matching funds by issuing shares and paying cash. After the completion of this transaction, Witton Crystal Phosphorus will become a holding subsidiary of the company. Up to now, the audit and evaluation of this transaction has not been completed, and the valuation and pricing of Witton Crystal Phosphorus have not yet been determined, and this transaction is not expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. Wittun Crystal Phosphorus is a state-level specialized and new "little giant" enterprise mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of high-purity electronic materials in the field of pan-semiconductors such as integrated circuits and photovoltaics, and its main products are high-purity electronic grade precursor materials such as ethyl orthosilicate (TEOS) and trimethylaluminum (TMA) and doped/oxidized materials such as phosphorus oxychloride and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene (DCE). This acquisition will help promote the company's introduction of high-purity electronic materials business in the pan-semiconductor field, further improve the company's business territory, better provide customers with high value-added comprehensive one-stop services, and enhance the company's core competitiveness. Trading in the Company's shares will resume from the market open on Friday, February 28, 2025. (Source: Shanghai Securities News, China Securities Network).

Investment suggestion: This Friday, themes such as AI and humanoid robots fell sharply, and themes such as humanoid robots and computing power construction around artificial intelligence have a trend of adjustment. It is recommended to allocate traditional construction machinery, machine tools, high-speed rail equipment, and mining metallurgical equipment leaders with good fundamentals, stable profits, and high dividends and dividend yields.

Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Raw material prices continue to rise sharply; There has been a major change in industrial policy.

Photovoltaics

Market review: The PV industry rose 1.01% in this period, outperforming the CSI 300 Index (-2.22%). The weekly turnover of the photovoltaic sector was 181.389 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month. Stocks in the photovoltaic sector rose and fell in half, with Jinbo shares, Arctech, Lianhong Xinke, JinkoSolar and Dike shares leading the gains.

Industry information and trends:

1. On February 27, the "Seminar on the Development Review of the Photovoltaic Industry in 2024 and the Outlook for the Situation in 2025" was held in Beijing. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said in the keynote report that in 2024, from the manufacturing side, the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules will increase by more than 10% year-on-year, and the export volume of cells and modules will increase by 46.3% and 12.8% year-on-year respectively. From the application side, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded expectations, reaching 277.57GW (gigawatts), a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic has exceeded 880GW. However, in 2024, the development situation of the photovoltaic industry is also not optimistic. For example, in terms of exports, the total export value of photovoltaic products was about 32.02 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9%. In terms of prices, polysilicon prices fell by more than 39%, wafer prices fell by more than 50%, cell prices fell by more than 30%, and module prices fell by more than 29%. In terms of output value, the output value of domestic photovoltaic manufacturing (excluding inverters) remained one trillion yuan, but decreased year-on-year. Looking forward to the situation of photovoltaic development this year, Wang Bohua said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to grow, and the global photovoltaic market is expected to reach 531GW to 583GW in 2025. In an optimistic forecast, the global new PV installed capacity will increase by 10% year-on-year this year. (Source: China Photovoltaic Industry Association).

2. This week, module prices have been raised in response to the increase in distributed projects, and the impact of the rush to install 531 nodes in China has begun to surface, and the current market prices have been successfully raised to RMB 0.65-0.7, and the quotations this week are still continuing to rise to RMB 0.7-0.72, but the current landing situation still needs to be observed. With only about 2 months left between the time difference between the centralized project and the node, a small number of new orders were signed, about 1-2 cents of RMB rose, and the overall price range moved up, with the price range between RMB 0.65 and RMB 0.67 increasing. In late February, manufacturers began to reduce and suspend the delivery of low-price orders, hoping to renegotiate delivery and prices with the terminal, but they are still negotiating and it is expected that the negotiations in March are expected to be settled. However, considering the limited terminal acceptance, the expected increase is about 1-2 points. (Source: PV infolink).

3. The number of new polysilicon orders signed this week was small, and the price remained stable. The transaction price range of n-type re-feeding material was 39,000-46,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 41,700 yuan/ton, the transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 38,000-41,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 3.20-36,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 34,000 yuan/ton. Affected by the self-discipline of the industry, some downstream enterprises of polysilicon have independently adjusted their output, and the demand for polysilicon has declined slightly. Downstream procurement is mostly based on economy as the first consideration, with a price difference of granular silicon, mixed packaging materials and new plant low-cost materials have advantages, so it is expected that the new round of centralized procurement market prices will remain stable, and the prices of the leading manufacturers will continue to be firm. In addition, the delivery of polysilicon futures will be launched in April, and some registered brand enterprises will slightly increase the density ratio of products to facilitate the registration of warehouse receipts. Up to now, all polysilicon enterprises in production in China are basically in a state of load reduction, except for one enterprise that is about to enter maintenance, the operating rate of the rest of the enterprises has not changed significantly. From March to May, the new production capacity was successively fed into operation, and there was no plan to increase production rapidly, and the overall output increased slightly and steadily, which had a limited impact on the total volume. (Source: Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association).

Investment advice: Judging from the data of the review and outlook meeting of the photovoltaic industry association, the growth rate of global photovoltaic installed demand is expected to slow down further in 2025. At the same time, all domestic new energy power generation has entered market-oriented transactions, which puts forward higher requirements for downstream power station developers. The phased increase in demand caused by the rush is expected to further improve supply and demand and boost the price of photovoltaic products. Short-term market volatility has intensified, and the PV sector has risen slightly in this round of market, and the valuation is still at a historically low level, and further attention can be paid to the sector in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the main and auxiliary materials with large losses and clear production capacity clearance expectations in the medium term. Pay attention to the leading enterprises in photovoltaic glass, integrated module factories, polysilicon materials, electronic silver paste and other segments.

Risk warning: trade friction risk; Global installed capacity demand is lower than expected; Overcapacity, fierce competition, and the risk of declining earnings.

Power & Utilities

Market review: Power & Utilities (CITIC) fell 1.03% in the current period, outperforming the CSI 300 Index (-2.22%) by 1.19 percentage points. The rankings of the three sub-banks this week were: Ring Heating or Other (1.01%), Gas (0.49%), Thermal Power (0.17%), Environmental Protection and Water (-0.71%), Power Grid (-0.96%), Hydropower (-1.57%), and Other Power Generation (-2.31%).

Industry information and trends:

1. In 2025, the total installed power generation capacity of the country will reach more than 3.6 billion kilowatts. On February 27, 2025, the National Energy Administration issued the "2025 Energy Work Guidance", which pointed out that the principle goals and tasks such as continuously enhancing energy security capabilities, promoting the adjustment and optimization of energy structure, and cultivating and developing new energy technologies, new industries and new models put forward that the total installed power generation capacity of the country will reach more than 3.6 billion kilowatts in 2025, the installed scale of new energy power generation will be more than 200 million kilowatts, and the power generation capacity will reach about 10.6 trillion kilowatt hours, and the inter-provincial and inter-regional transmission capacity will continue to improve. (Data source: National Energy Administration).

2. Breaking through 10 trillion for the first time, China's marine economy released a "report card" in 2024. According to the "2024 Statistical Bulletin of China's Marine Economy" released by the Ministry of Natural Resources on February 24, China's marine economy will show a strong momentum of development in 2024, and the total amount of marine economy will reach a new level, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 105438 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, driving the growth of the national economy by 0.4 percentage points. Among them, in 2024, the supply of marine energy will continue to grow. The output of marine crude oil and natural gas increased by 4.7% and 8.7% year-on-year respectively, and the increase in marine crude oil accounted for nearly eighty percent of the total increase in crude oil in the country. Offshore wind power generation increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, contributing to the green and low-carbon development of the economy and society. (Source: Ministry of Natural Resources).

3. In January, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces and autonomous regions was 124.3 billion kilowatt hours. In January this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces and autonomous regions was 124.3 billion kilowatt hours, of which the agricultural electricity consumption increased by 7% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.4% and 25.7% respectively. (Data source: China Southern Power Grid).

Investment suggestion: With the acceleration of the construction of new energy systems and new power systems, the acceleration of power market-oriented reform, the rapid increase in electricity demand for new energy vehicles and Internet data service industries, the power and public utilities industry has ushered in new development opportunities. From the perspective of the macroeconomic environment, China will implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is conducive to dividend assets with high dividends and low valuations. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to large hydropower and nuclear power enterprises with stable profitability, high dividend yields and strong defensive attributes.

Risk Warning: Thermal Power Fuel Cost Fluctuation Risk; the risk that the water supply from hydropower is less than expected; the risk of intensifying competition in the new energy market; the risk of declining electricity prices for market-based transactions; Operational efficiency improvements are less than expected; cost control is not as expected; Other unpredictable risks.

Media

Market review: Media (CITIC) fell 8.06% in this period, underperforming the CSI 300 (-2.22) by 5.84pct. In the sub-sectors, Internet advertising and marketing, animation, and social and interactive media all fell by more than 10%.

Industry information and trends:

1. Securities Times Network News, according to the data of the online platform, the total box office of the world's top animated film box office "Nezha's Demon Boy in the Sea" exceeded 14 billion yuan. (Xinhua News Agency).

2. On February 21, the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval information of domestic online games in February 2025, and a total of 110 games have passed the review. In 2025, the approval information for the first batch of imported online games will also be released at the same time, with a total of 3 games. It can be seen that the trend of stable distribution of version numbers and steady increase in quantity is still continuing - this month, the number of domestic game versions exceeded 100, and although the number of imported versions was few, it was not interrupted. (Touch).

3. Taobao data shows that more than 2 million people have purchased Nezha-related peripheral goods on Taobao, and the sales of its peripheral goods have exceeded 300 million yuan, breaking the record of "The Wandering Earth 2" for two years, and becoming the most gold-absorbing domestic film and television IP in the history of Taobao. Among them, the Bubble Mart and "Nezha 2" co-branded series of natural bond series figure blind boxes, only 8 days after its launch, sales exceeded 10 million yuan, and the sales volume of Tmall flagship store exceeded 100,000 pieces. The relevant staff of Taobao Tmall toy and toy industry also introduced that among the turnover of 300 million yuan, the turnover of blind boxes, figures, cards and other trendy toys exceeded 200 million yuan, and nearly 10 tens of millions of stores have emerged. (21st Century Business Herald).

Investment suggestion: Affected by the sharp pullback in AI-related sectors, the media sector as a whole also fell sharply this week. We believe that we should pay attention to the development of the AI industry and the impact of AI models on the cultural content industry. On the one hand, game products have begun to add functions with AI characteristics to achieve innovation at the gameplay level, and more AI-native game products may appear in the future. On the other hand, the game industry is currently in a policy-friendly period, and the state and some localities have also put forward guiding goals or supporting policies for the development of the game industry.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic changes affect the demand for cultural consumption; The policy effect is not as good as expected; The quality of the output is not as good as expected; The progress and application of AI technology are not as good as expected.

Computers

Market review: The computer industry fell 8.01% in this period, ranking third from the bottom among the 30 CITIC industries.

Industry information and trends:

2. On February 27, local time, OpenAI officially released the research preview version of GPT4.5, its largest and strongest chat model. Compared to o1 and o3-mini, GPT-4.5 is a more versatile, naturally and intelligent model. GPT-4.5 is large and requires a lot of computing resources, so the API price is $75 per 1M token, which is 30 times higher than GPT-4o's $2.5. (Source: Heart of the Machine).

3. On February 26, local time, Nvidia announced its fourth quarter and full-year performance data for fiscal year 2025, as well as its performance guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. In the fourth fiscal quarter, revenue was $39.331 billion, a significant increase of 78% year-on-year; net profit was 22.091 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 80%. (Source: Interface News).

Investment suggestion: This week, DeepSeek has open-sourced the relevant model code for 5 consecutive days, sharing the underlying technology of V3 and R1, and also showing its strong ability to refine data processing and combine software and hardware. Judging from Nvidia's financial report data, chip revenue growth has slowed down, and the rise of DeepSeek has further increased the market's concerns about computing power growth. The GPT-4.5 released by OpenAI did not bring performance improvements, but the price rose further, which also made the market have more expectations for DeepSeek's V4 and R2 models, and the application promotion of DeepSeek is expected to accelerate in an all-round way. Judging from the current industry fundamentals, the annual report performance is generally weak, and the industry fundamentals in 2025Q1 are changing positively, and it is difficult to deliver the performance in the short term. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the application and promotion of the AI industry, and the sub-sections or individual stocks with low market attention in the early stage should take into account both risks and returns.

Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected, and overseas markets adjust risks.

Electronics

Market review: The electronic index fell 4.79% in this period, and the CSI 300 index fell 2.22% in the same period, and the overall performance of the industry was weaker than the market. The specific rise and fall of each sub-industry is: semiconductors (-3.41%), components (-10.75%), optics and optoelectronics (-5.14%), consumer electronics (-5.15%), and other electronic components (-5.35%).

Industry information and trends:

1. Apple announced that it will invest more than $500 billion in the United States in the next four years. On February 14, 2025, Apple announced the largest investment plan in history, which will spend and invest more than $500 billion in the United States in the next four years, and this initiative is expected to add 20,000 jobs. Apple's latest investment plan is in response to US President Donald Trump's reshoring of manufacturing.

Apple said it will build a 250,000-square-foot factory in Houston with its partners to assemble services for data centers to produce Apple Intelligence-enabled servers, which is expected to open in 2026. Previously, these servers were mainly manufactured outside of the United States. In an official press release, Apple noted that the $500 billion commitment includes Apple's partnerships with thousands of suppliers in all 50 states, direct employment, Apple's smart infrastructure and data centers, corporate facilities, and Apple TV+ production in 20 states. (The Paper).

2. The Trump administration is drafting stricter restrictions on semiconductors. On February 25, 2025, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference. A reporter asked that the Trump administration is drafting stricter restrictions on semiconductors and pressuring key allies to escalate restrictions on China's chip industry. Do you have any comment? Lin Jian said that China has repeatedly stated its solemn position on the malicious blockade and suppression of China's semiconductor industry by the United States. The US has politicized, pan-securitized, and instrumentalized economic, trade, and technological issues, continuously increased export controls on Chinese chips, and coerced other countries to suppress China's semiconductor industry. (Finance Associated Press).

3. Xiaomi held a new product launch conference and released two blockbuster products, Xiaomi 15 Ultra and Xiaomi SU7 Ultra. On February 27, 2025, it was reported that Xiaomi held a new product launch conference and launched a variety of blockbuster products, covering smartphones, smart cars, smart homes and other fields.

Xiaomi Mi 15 Ultra was released, the imaging system is equipped with a 1-inch main camera with a large bottom and a 200 million pixel periscope telephoto, supporting full-range 8K/4K video recording, and the Leica quad-camera system has been fully upgraded. Equipped with a Snapdragon 8 Ultra processor, a 6000mAh battery, and supports 90W wired second charging and 80W wireless second charging; The screen adopts a 6.73-inch 2K full-depth quadruple curved screen, supports 1-120Hz LTPO variable refresh rate, and has a peak brightness of 3200nit; Support Apple ecological mutual transfer, compatible with iPhone/iPad/Mac.

Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was released, the product positioning is "new luxury car", with luxurious design, luxury technology, sports luxury, and a new color "Parrot Green" made a stunning appearance; It supports carbon fiber double air duct front hatch cover, and adopts autoclave process to reduce the weight of the vehicle and improve aerodynamic performance; The pre-sale price dropped from 814,900 yuan to 529,900 yuan, and the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra went on sale for 2 hours, and more than 10,000 units were ordered.

Xiaomi also released a number of new products, the RedmiBook Pro 16 2025 is equipped with a 3.1K 165Hz screen, equipped with a second-generation Intel Core Ultra processor, and supports AI acceleration; The Xiaomi Buds 5 Pro adopts an in-ear design, supports 55dB noise reduction depth and 5kHz ultra-wideband coverage, and debuts a bi-amplified three-unit acoustic system. Smart home products include Mijia Central Air Conditioner Pro, Mijia Intelligent Inverter Dehumidifier 30L, Mijia Refrigerator Pro, etc. (Sina).

According to TrendForce's forecast, the supply and demand structure of the NAND Flash market is expected to improve significantly in 25H2, and the price of NAND Flash is expected to rebound in 25H2. Internet manufacturers such as Alibaba and ByteDance continue to increase capital expenditure related to AI infrastructure construction, and the demand for domestic substitution of AI and memory is expected to promote domestic memory manufacturers to continuously increase their market share.

Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected, market competition intensifies the risk, domestic manufacturers' R&D progress is less than expected, localization progress is less than expected, and international geopolitical conflicts intensify the risk.

Securities Analyst Promises:

The undersigned analyst of this report has the securities analyst qualification granted by the Securities Association of China, and his position meets the relevant compliance requirements of the regulatory authorities. Based on a serious and prudent professional attitude, professional and rigorous research methods and analytical logic, I produce this report independently and objectively. This report accurately reflects my research views, and I am responsible for the content and opinions of the report, and ensure that the sources of information in the report are legal and compliant.

Important Notice: