The policy has hit hard, and Illumina has been banned altogether

On March 4, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement officially banning Illumina, the global leader in gene sequencing, from exporting gene sequencers to China. This is another draconian move following its inclusion on the Unreliable Entity List on February 4. Under the Unreliable Entity List, foreign entities included in the list may face trade restrictions, fines, and other penalties. The ban directly cuts off the supply of Illumina's core equipment in the Chinese market, and its market gap corresponding to its revenue of US$308 million (about 2.2 billion yuan) in Greater China in 2024 may become a "new blue ocean" for domestic manufacturers to compete.

Domestic substitution is accelerating, and leading enterprises are seizing the market vacuum

After the ban was issued, the capital market reacted quickly. At the close of trading on March 4, MGI (688114. SH) stock price 20cm limit, Berry Gene (000710. SZ), Da'an Gene (002030. SZ) and so on. The market generally believes that domestic companies will quickly fill the gap after Illumina's exit by virtue of technological breakthroughs, cost-effective and localized service advantages.

According to the data, Illumina's market share in China has plummeted from 64.5% in 2021 to 54.2% in 2023 (in terms of revenue), while MGI's market share jumped from less than 10% to 32.6% in the same period. Industry insiders predict that the market share of domestic sequencer brands is expected to exceed 60% in 2025.

Technological breakthrough + closed-loop of the whole industry chain, MGI may become the biggest winner

As a leading domestic sequencer, MGI is regarded as the biggest beneficiary of this round of policy dividends. Its DNBSEQ series sequencers have surpassed similar Illumina models in terms of accuracy, throughput and other core indicators, and the cost advantage is significant. In 2023, MGI's domestic market share of installed sequencers will reach 47.3% (by volume), surpassing Illumina's 26.5%. The company's 1-9M24 new installed capacity exceeded 670 units, and the proportion of overseas revenue climbed to 32%, and the global layout began to take shape.

Hu Xiaoxiang, a professor at China Agricultural University, said that MGI not only provides sequencing equipment, but also forms a "closed loop of the whole industry chain" through automation, realizing end-to-end solutions in scientific research and clinical practice. Wang Hao, CEO of Jiangsu Weihe Biotech, also revealed that the BGI platform "can completely replace Illumina" at the technical level.

Antu and Yahuilong broke through with differentiation, and the domestic camp blossomed in many places

In addition to MGI, other domestic manufacturers are seizing the subdivision track through technological differentiation

Antu Biotech: Sikun Biotech, a subsidiary, launched the Sikun series sequencer, which adopts the "sequencing while synthesizing" technology similar to Illumina, and the clinical certification is expected to be implemented within the year, focusing on "cost-effective replacement";

Yahuilong: Focusing on the high-throughput scenario of next-generation sequencing and the third-generation nanopore technology, the domestic nanopore sequencer jointly developed by it and Zhenxi Medical is expected to complete clinical registration in the first half of 2025, and the long-read characteristics can accurately analyze complex genomic variations and cut into clinical pain points such as pathogenic microbial diagnosis.

Industry outlook: cost exploration + application expansion, the wave of localization is irreversible

Experts pointed out that the ban on Illumina equipment will accelerate the penetration of domestic sequencers and promote the popularization of consumer-grade genetic testing, "The high cost of imported equipment has been a pain point in the industry, and the cost of sequencing is expected to drop by 30%-50% after domestic substitution." In addition, with the iteration of technology, the application of domestic sequencing is expanding from non-invasive prenatal examination and tumor detection to emerging fields such as pathogen diagnosis and multi-omics research, further opening up the market space.

This article is generated in conjunction with AI tools