Shanxi Securities released a research report saying that a 7.9-magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar and was strongly felt in Yunnan. According to the news of all parties, the earthquake has an important impact on the western production area of China's photovoltaic silicon wafer rod core. It has even affected some production areas in Yinchuan and Inner Mongolia. At present, the impact on distant areas is mainly disconnected, and it is expected to recover in the short term. However, the impact in Yunnan and Yibin is heavier, and some manufacturers even have stewed pots, fried sticks, and fryers, which may have an impact on the subsequent long-term start-up.

National Energy Administration: 13.27 million green certificates for solar power generation were issued in February: On March 28, the National Energy Administration released the data on the issuance and trading of national renewable energy green power certificates released by the National Energy Administration in February 2025. According to the data, in February, the National Energy Administration issued 256.37 million green certificates, including 98.34 million wind power, 43.97 million solar power generation, and 15.91 million biomass power generation. In February, 28.4 million green certificates were traded, including 14.12 million wind power, 13.27 million solar power generation, and 290,000 biomass power generation.

IRENA: Global solar PV capacity will increase by 451.9GW in 2024: On March 27, according to the latest "2025 Renewable Energy Capacity Statistics" released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), global renewable energy capacity will increase by 585GW in 2024, reaching a total of 4,448GW, a record annual growth rate of 15.1%. In 2023, the global installed renewable energy capacity will be 3,863GW.

Tongwei shares: subsidiary Yongxiang shares to introduce 10 billion war investment: On March 29, Tongwei shares announced that Yongxiang shares plan to introduce strategic investors and implement capital increase and share expansion. The proposed capital increase before the equity valuation of Yongxiang shares 27 billion yuan, the introduction of strategic investors, to Yongxiang shares of a total capital increase of no more than 10 billion yuan, is expected to obtain a total of Yongxiang shares after the capital increase of the equity ratio of no more than 27.03%, the capital increase is mainly used for Yongxiang shares to repay the liabilities of financial institutions, replenish liquidity, etc.

Price tracking

Polysilicon prices: According to Infolink data, the average price of dense material this week was 40.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week; The average price of granular silicon was 38.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. This week, N-type polysilicon companies have 5 transactions, and some polysilicon companies have begun to sign orders for the next month, but the transaction volume is small. According to the feedback of enterprises, the overall transaction volume in March was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises were more willing to go to the warehouse. Overall, the inventory of the polysilicon industry continued to show a downward trend, but from a structural point of view, the inventory of raw materials held by downstream wafer companies decreased significantly, while the inventory held by polysilicon companies increased. Polysilicon supply was basically stable in March and is expected to increase in April, with prices expected to remain stable in the short term.

Wafer prices: According to InfoLink data, the average price of 150um 182mm mono-Si wafers this week was RMB 1.15/pc, unchanged from last week. The average price of 130um 183mm N-type silicon wafers was 1.2 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week; The average price of 130um 182*210mm silicon wafers was 1.45 yuan/piece, up 3.6% from last week. As the 430 and 531 rush installation nodes are approaching, cell and module companies are increasing purchases, driving the short-term concentrated release of wafer demand. On March 28, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, and Yunnan felt a strong earthquake, according to SMM, some manufacturers even had stewed pots, fried sticks, fryers, etc., which had a certain impact on production capacity, and prices were expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Cell prices: According to InfoLink data, the average price of M10 cells (23.1% efficiency) was 0.31/W this week, unchanged from last week. The average price of TOPCon cells was RMB 0.305/W (conversion efficiency 25.0%+), up 1.7% from last week. The price of 182*210mm N-type cells was 0.34 yuan/W (conversion efficiency 25.0%+), up 3.0% from last week. Catalyzed by the terminal market, there is a periodic inventory shortage in the cell sector. As the supply capacity of the upstream wafer sector may be difficult to support the pace of cell expansion, the price of high-efficiency cells is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Module prices: According to InfoLink data, the average price of 182mm bifacial PERC modules this week was RMB 0.65/W, unchanged from last week. The price of 182mm TOPCon double-glass modules was 0.74 yuan/W, up 1.4% from last week. Affected by the continuous fermentation of downstream rush to install, the winning bid price and actual supply price of modules have risen, and the price of distributed projects has risen faster than that of centralized projects. The contradiction between supply and demand in the short-term terminal market is prominent, and prices are expected to continue to rise.

Glass price: According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass this week was 22.0 yuan/㎡, which was the same as last week; The price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was 14.0 yuan/㎡, unchanged from last week.

Subject matter

Key recommendation: BC new technology direction: Aiko (600732.SH), LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH). Supply-side improvement direction: Follett (601865.SH); Overseas layout direction: Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ), Sungrow (300274.SZ), Canadian Solar (688472.SH), Deye (605117.SH).

It is recommended to actively pay attention to: Xinyi Solar (00968), GCL Technology (03800), Tongwei (600438.SH), Daqo Energy (688303.SH), TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), Xinte Energy (01799), Dier Laser (300776.SZ), Foster (603806.SH), Haiyou New Materials (688680.SH), JA Solar (002459.SZ), Trina Solar ( 688599.SH), JinkoSolar (688223.SH), Arctech (688408.SH), Myway (300751.SZ), Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Otway (688516.SH), Shichuang Energy (688429.SH), Jingshan Light Machine (000821.SZ), Shanghai Ailu (301062.SZ), Yubang New Materials (301266. SZ), Kuangshun materials (300537.SZ).

Risk Warning

The new installed capacity of PV is less than expected; the risk of price fluctuations in the industrial chain; policy risks in overseas regions, etc.