(1) Just after the first quarter of 2025, the price of industrial and commercial energy storage cabinets has been cut to the "kneecap", and there is still no sign of stopping;

(2) Some people call for the cessation of involution, some people reflect on why they want to roll, and some people are seeking to "break the volume";

(3) All great enterprises are the children of winter; Every company that can survive, who is not a child who survives the winter?

Finance Associated Press, April 2 (Reporter Wang Bin) 0.499 yuan/Wh, 0.486 yuan/Wh, 0.478 yuan/Wh...... Just after the first quarter of this year, the price of industrial and commercial energy storage cabinets has been cut to the "kneecap", and there is still no sign of stopping. And this is only the tip of the iceberg of the current energy storage involution.

(Wanjin energy storage system integration foundry price 0.0998 yuan/Wh, photo by a reporter from the Financial Associated Press).

The reporter of the Financial Associated Press recently learned at the 15th Energy Storage Conference and Exhibition that the price of Wanjin Energy Storage's 2.5MW/5MWh 20-foot liquid-cooled DC cabin has come to 0.0998 yuan/Wh. Compared with last year, the overall cooling of this year's exhibition has dropped significantly. At the scene, the two words that the reporter of the Financial Associated Press heard most frequently were "Document No. 136" and "anti-involution".

In February this year, the Energy Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Feed-in Tariffs and Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy (i.e., Document No. 136), which not only guides new energy to participate in the power market, but also creates an external environment for the market-oriented development of energy storage. Judging from the market reaction, energy storage companies have passion, frustration, confusion, and perseverance.

At the same time, the involution storm of the industry is forcing China's energy storage to the battlefield of the global energy revolution, and the price competition is extending from domestic to overseas, and the blue ocean is rapidly reddening. During the conference, the reporter of the Financial Associated Press interviewed Nandu Power (300068. SZ), Jiangsu Beiren (688218. SH), Wanjin Energy Storage and other enterprises, and feel how small and medium-sized enterprises are looking for breakthroughs in the industry involution.

5.31 "rush to install the tide" rises, and the second half of the year is expected to diverge

Circular 136 points out that the feed-in electricity of renewable energy will be promoted to participate in market transactions, and the feed-in tariff will be formed through market transactions, and a "price settlement mechanism for sustainable development of new energy" will be established. Is the lifting of the "compulsory allocation and storage" good or bad for the industry? Up to now, most of the industry tends to be "short-term negative, long-term positive".

It is worth mentioning that Circular 136 stipulates that the "price difference settlement mechanism" will be adopted for existing projects (connected to the grid before June 1, 2025) to ensure that their income is not lower than the original electricity price of the mechanism, but the proportion of guaranteed electricity needs to be gradually reduced. Incremental projects (connected to the grid after June 1, 2025) will be fully market-based in determining electricity prices.

According to Ye Jun, deputy general manager and chief engineer of Shanghai Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., there has been a "rush to install" in the energy storage industry recently. "All the projects under construction of the power generation group are desperately rushing to meet the construction deadline, and all of them must be connected to the grid by May 31. Our company does general contracting, as well as design and planning, and now everyone is very busy. ”

However, Chen Yusi, executive vice president of Zhejiang Wolong energy storage system, said that even if the "5.31 rush installation" brings full production, the product price is still low. In addition, a number of industry insiders predict that after the issuance of Document 136, a lot of production capacity under the original mandatory distribution and storage policy will be idle.

Jiang Xinyu, chairman of Guangzhou Zhiguang Energy Storage, said that energy storage has made great progress in the past few years, mainly due to the development of the domestic new energy vehicle industry and the mandatory distribution and storage policy. "2025 could be a year of fire and ice. Before May 31, in order to meet the needs of distribution and storage, we must rush to deliver and put into production; However, in the second half of this year, the production capacity of many enterprises may face idleness. ”

Liu Jian, deputy director and associate researcher of the System Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that about 50% of the income from the domestic independent reserve came from new energy distribution and storage, and due to the issuance of Document No. 136, there may be greater uncertainty in the follow-up, and the direct capacity leasing of energy storage may be a change. "It is not that the new energy distribution and storage will be completely withdrawn, but it may be that its future income will be relatively risky. In the future, it may rely more on the electricity market or electricity price mechanism, especially the capacity electricity price that everyone is more concerned about now. ”

Li Bin, deputy general manager of Anhui Conch Ronghua Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd., described Document No. 136 as a "huge earthquake" and "sudden brake" in the energy storage industry. Zhang Peng, deputy general manager of Hongzheng Energy Storage Co., Ltd., is worried, "How to make profits in the future of new energy is now a big question mark." ”

In this regard, Lin Xuefeng, deputy chief engineer of China Energy Construction Group Xinjiang Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., believes that after the promulgation of document No. 136, it is expected that independent energy storage will become the main form of new energy storage in the future, and spot trading will become a major profit model. "It's a more flexible model, and the profit margin may be greater, but the risk will also increase."

In response to the impact of the cancellation of compulsory distribution and storage, Hong Qifeng, product director of Jiangsu Beiren, told the Financial Associated Press reporter that it is expected that industrial and commercial energy storage will have better growth than in the past this year; Gao Xiubing, CEO of Nandu Power, believes that the price of energy storage will move in a more rational direction in the future; Ruan Peng, deputy general manager of Pinggao Group Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd., said that this move will guide the energy storage industry to shift from construction as the focus to a new era as the focus on operation.

"The cancellation of compulsory distribution and storage will have a negative impact on the development of new energy storage in the short term, especially in Xinjiang, where the scale of new energy storage will definitely decline, and the same should be true in other regions." Zhai Xujing of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. said that in the long run, the policy can really play a regulatory role and allow new energy storage to survive in the market.

"After the market-oriented transaction, the demand for new energy storage will be greater. In the past, we were rushing to match, what products do we need after canceling the rush? High-quality, high-safety, high-cost products, so this is a reward for our companies that really make products. Wang Deke, solution sales director of the energy storage division of Beijing Jianheng Certification Center, said.

In the view of Li Zhijie, deputy general manager of the marketing department of Xi'an Singularity Energy Co., Ltd., in the first half of this year, the investment enthusiasm for industrial and commercial energy storage will be at a low point. With the clearing of the equipment side, the overall growth rate will be better than expected, and it is expected that the second half of this year may usher in a round of market outbreak.

The "anti-involution" sentiment is obviously high, and foreign companies give up competition and seek cooperation

Overcapacity, price falls, technology iterations, safety anxiety, and policy mutations have made leading companies more ferocious in seizing the market...... It is generally believed in the industry that the knockout competition in the energy storage industry has begun, but it has not yet entered the climax.

"'Life and death have never been downplayed, and professionalism and cycle are opposite. It is said that energy storage can make money, and after doing energy storage, I burst into tears. I believe that many industry colleagues have come to the conference with a heavy heart, because the market has been involuted to no gross profit or even negative gross profit to do projects. Paineng Technology (688063. Peng Kuankuan, deputy general manager of the domestic marketing division, said, "There are more than 200,000 energy storage companies in the market space of 18 billion yuan for energy storage, of which more than 70,000 are insured by more than 20 people. I believe the answer is no. ”

The environment of involution is in front of us, and most energy storage companies are moving forward with heavy loads. As a leading enterprise in energy storage investment and operation, Maxson Energy also clearly feels the pressure of intensified market competition.

"A lot of people know me in the middle of the fight. I hope everyone can sit down and drink tea, and everyone can put their hands away, there is no need to roll up like that. In this way, the profits of equipment manufacturers, investors, builders, and EPCs will be slightly higher. Zhang Baolei, senior vice president of Maxson Energy, appealed, "Everyone knows that the photovoltaic industry has risen and fallen three times, and now it is the fourth one, see if we can do the fourth." I believe the energy storage industry is just the beginning. ”

Zhu Chunlei, chairman of Wanjin Energy Storage, told the Financial Associated Press reporter, "Everyone is very painful to fight the price war. If you don't reduce the price, you may not have a competitive advantage, and you won't be able to get orders; After the price is reduced, there will be no profit, and the company will not survive in the long run. ”

In June 2024, Wanjin Energy Storage proposed to be the "Foxconn" of the energy storage industry. The reporter of the Financial Associated Press recently learned that Wanjin Energy Storage is now positioned to become the "TSMC" of the industry. "We now have a system integration OEM price of 0.0998 yuan/Wh, which is still profitable. I expect the company to double its orders this year. Cost innovation and price wars are completely different things. Zhu Chunlei emphasized.

Liu Lei, co-founder and chief intelligent manufacturing expert of Weijing Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters, "If we regard the supply chain as a cost center, we will find that all thinking must be price reduction thinking." What is the final result of the depricing thinking? In addition to involution, what remains is poor quality and technical stagnation. ”

Despite the dilemma of involution, many people in the industry are still optimistic about the long-term development of the energy storage industry. Chen Yusi believes that the involution is continuous, but the involution may get better and better. Li Zhijie said, "This is a process through the cycle, rolling to the end, and the rest is king." All great businesses are winter children; For every enterprise that can survive, who is not a child who survives the winter?".

In Hong Qifeng's view, the inflection point of the energy storage industry may not be far away. "Two years ago, the price of batteries was five or six cents or even higher, and now it has fallen to two or three cents, which has basically bottomed out. This is actually a good thing, and now everyone will pay more attention to the space occupation, energy efficiency, and income of industrial and commercial energy storage cabinets, rather than just looking at the price. ”

Some people call for the cessation of involution, some people reflect on why they want to roll, and some people are seeking to "break the volume".

Lin Xuefeng said, "Energy storage going overseas is a very important direction to solve the involution. Although our cost advantage is relatively large, due to the problem of trade barriers, more companies will choose to go overseas with production capacity. ”

Gao Xiubing also said that compared with China, the degree of overseas volume is much lower, because there is no compulsory allocation and storage overseas. In addition, overseas customers are not only looking for the lowest price, but also care more about the reliability and safety of their products.

"Many energy storage companies with volume costs have closed down after a short time, and the products sold have become zombie devices." Hong Qifeng said, "For overseas energy storage projects, everyone is most concerned about how to ensure after-sales issues. One of the things that I remember most is that some overseas customers ask, 'How can I contact you within two hours if the device is broken?' ”

However, when going overseas is regarded by many Chinese companies as an important way to break the "volume", how should overseas companies respond?

Zhao Liang, account manager of Bloomberg New Energy Finance China, shared a story with a reporter from the Financial Associated Press: "At an energy summit in Houston at the beginning of the year, there was a topic called 'how to compete with Chinese battery manufacturers'. At the end of our colleague's talk, he felt that we should not look for answers, but should change the angle of the question to 'how to cooperate with Chinese battery manufacturers'. Collection

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