Events: On April 2, the Trump administration announced tariffs on other countries; On April 4, China retaliated by imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. imports.

Continue to pay attention to the direction of new quality productivity. In order to cope with the negative impact on China's economy, it is expected that domestic policies will further focus on the improvement of industrial total factor productivity represented by new quality productivity, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the direction of low-altitude economy, deep-sea science and technology, and humanoid robots.

Tariffs exceeding expectations also mean that domestic policies to stabilize growth may be accelerated, and fiscal policies are expected to increase spending intensity, and the low-altitude economy is expected to benefit. In December 2024, the General Office of the State Council will include the low-altitude economy in the scope of special bond capital, and local governments can give priority to special bonds in terms of funding sources, and the low-altitude economy will be supported by funds.

In the future, in order to hedge the negative impact of U.S. tariffs, if fiscal policy continues to expand, the low-altitude economy will continue to benefit.

According to the forecast of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in 2035, it is estimated that China's UAVs will be delivered more than 61 million times, and the manufacturing output value is expected to reach 490 billion yuan. According to the forecast of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) may gradually become one of the main means of transportation in 2035, and it is predicted that the number of deliveries in China will reach 300,000 by 2035, and the market size will reach 570 billion yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the three major links of low-altitude lighting, aircraft motors, and eVOLT seats: the localization process of low-altitude lighting is accelerating. Airport navigation lighting system is an important safety guarantee facility in the process of aircraft take-off and landing, with the acceleration of low-altitude economic infrastructure construction, related lighting companies are expected to fully benefit. China's leading lighting enterprises are gradually entering the low-altitude lighting industry, which is expected to accelerate the localization process of low-altitude lighting; The penetration rate of axial flux motors is expected to continue to increase in the future. Compared with the radial flux motor, the axial flux motor is lighter and smaller, and can provide greater torque and greater power, the volume and weight of the axial flux motor of the same power are reduced by about 50%, and it has a wider and efficient working range, which can effectively reduce the weight of the electric drive system while ensuring the take-off and landing and propulsion capacity of the aircraft, providing better guarantee for flight activities and endurance, and the penetration rate of the axial flux motor is expected to continue to increase in the future. The broad market space and high industry threshold of low-altitude aircraft seats bring investment opportunities. According to the above forecast, if the number of deliveries in China reaches 300,000 in 2035, the market size of eVOLT seats is expected to reach 30 billion yuan. China has high requirements for rotor aviation seats, and the impact resistance, energy absorption, restraint and flame retardancy of the seats have assessment indicators, among which the requirements for resisting overload can reach 30g (bearing 30 times the gravitational acceleration). At the same time, traditional seat materials are difficult to meet the high requirements of eVOLT for lightweight, and the application of new materials such as carbon fiber and aluminum alloy will also pose a high barrier in the future. Expected to benefit the target: Mulinsen (002745), Dongmu (600114), Xinzhi Group (002664), Tiancheng Controls (603085), Andawell (300719), Shandong Mining Machinery (002526), Weihai Guangtai (002111), Shandong Zhanggu (002598).

With the introduction of China's countermeasures, the United States' exports to China will be impacted, the importance of security, independence and controllability is highlighted, deep-sea science and technology is related to China's energy security, and related enterprises are expected to benefit from import substitution. Oceans contain more than 34% of the Earth's oil and gas, and 44% of them are buried beneath depths of more than 300 meters.

The average water depth of the South China Sea is more than 1,000 meters, and 55% of the oil and gas resources exist on the seabed. Under the grand strategy of energy security, China has continuously introduced relevant policies to increase energy exploration, and capital expenditure related to energy exploitation is expected to remain strong. Data centers are expected to move into the deep sea. Compared with onshore data centers, submarine data centers use the ocean as a natural cooling source, saving electricity, water, land, high security, high reliability, and low latency. The breakthrough and promotion of AI technology has greatly increased the demand for data centers, and the deep seabed provides a unique natural endowment advantage for the large-scale construction of data centers, and data centers are expected to be relocated to the seabed in the future. There is a vast space for domestic substitution of deep-sea equipment. The ultra-deepwater environment needs to withstand high pressure, and at the same time faces multiple environmental pressures such as low temperature, high temperature alternation, seabed sediment erosion, etc., the manufacturing barriers of deepwater equipment are high, and high-end equipment has been monopolized by overseas enterprises for a long time. Taking deep-water Christmas tree as an example, foreign equipment has been widely used in deep-water environment above 300 meters, more than 90% of the international market share is monopolized by European and American enterprises, China's deep-water Christmas tree localization rate is less than 30%, and key components such as deep-water seals and deep-sea pressure sensors still rely on imports. With the continuous advancement of the deep-sea science and technology strategy, there is a broad space for import substitution of domestic technology leading enterprises. Expected to benefit the target: CNOOC Engineering (600583, highly recommended), Dewei (688377), Deshi (301158), Hailanxin (300065), Lianke Technology (001207), Const (300445, highly recommended), Zhongmi Holdings (300470).

The upgrading of industrial structure is still the main line in the medium and long term, and humanoid robots are expected to solve customized pain points, which is an important tool for improving the total factor productivity of China's manufacturing industry, and is expected to continue to receive policy and financial support. According to the company's DuPont analysis model, return on assets is a function of price, sales volume and turnover rate, and the price corresponds to a higher gross profit margin to meet the customization; Sales volume corresponds to the dilution of the cost of mass production; The turnover rate corresponds to the agile production of low inventory that improves production efficiency. The popularization of industrial robots solves the pain points of low-cost, batch-based and large-scale production, and the industrial Internet uses sensors and the Internet to interconnect production equipment. The last pain point of current industrial production is that it meets the needs of customers in a low-cost, large-scale and timely manner, and the humanoid robot, as the carrier of artificial intelligence, embeds the traditional bulky and fixed production line into all aspects of industrial manufacturing with strong flexibility and interactivity, opening up the last mile of consumers' personalized needs. On February 23, the Information Office of the Shenzhen Municipal Government held a press conference to open up the whole city to artificial intelligence and robots in accordance with the principle of "opening as much as possible", and open another 100 application scenarios in 2025 to accelerate the industry into a virtuous cycle of development. Expected to benefit the target: Keli Sensing (603662), Donghua Testing (300354), Mingzhi Electric (603728), Zhaowei Electromechanical (003021), Topband (002139), Microlight (002801), Hengli Hydraulics (601100), Best (300580), Shuanghuan Transmission (002472), Greenland Harmonic (688017), Zhongda (002896), Inovance Technology (300124, highly recommended) , Eston (002747).

Risk warning: market panic spreads, macroeconomic data is less than expected, industrial development is less than expected, etc.