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In 24 years, the company achieved revenue of 3.639 billion yuan (YOY+59.2%), including 3.349 billion yuan of interconnection chips (YOY+53.3%), 280 million yuan of Jindai server platform (YOY+198.9%), and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.412 billion yuan (YOY+213.1%), slightly exceeding our expectations. The company's annual revenue/net profit growth mainly benefited from: 1) the global server market demand has picked up, DDR5 and its progeny continue to penetrate and iterate, the company's DDR5 product shipments account for more than 50%, and the shipment volume of the second subgeneration has exceeded that of the first subgeneration; 2) The company's three new AI-related products began to be shipped on a large scale, with revenue of 422 million yuan. The company simultaneously disclosed the 1Q25 performance forecast, which is expected to achieve revenue of 1.222 billion yuan (yoy + 65.8%, qoq + 14.4%), net profit attributable to the parent of 5.1-550 million yuan (median yoy + 137.7%, qoq + 22.1%), and net profit of 485 million to 525 million yuan (median yoy + 129.6%, qoq + 35%). We are optimistic that the accelerated penetration of DDR5 will drive the company's memory interface chip revenue to maintain high growth, and the expansion of new products such as PCIe Switch is expected to bring new growth and maintain "buy".
4Q24/1Q25 Review: DDR5 memory interface chips are in strong demand, and the third generation of products has begun to increase in 4Q24 The company's interconnection chip revenue was 972 million yuan, and the company expects 1Q25 to grow to 1.139 billion yuan (yoy+63.9%, qoq+17.2%), hitting a record high, mainly benefiting from the strong demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and further increasing shipments. Affected by the pace of procurement, the sales volume of PCIe Retimer in 4Q24 may decline quarter-on-quarter, and the quarterly revenue contribution of MRCD/MDB and CKD is also at a low level, and the company expects the revenue of three AI-related products in 1Q25 to be 135 million yuan, +155% year-on-year, or an increase from the previous quarter. In 4Q24, the gross profit margin of the company's interconnection chips reached 63.42% (yoy+0.51pct, qoq+1.21pct), and with the increase in DDR5 penetration rate (the proportion of second/third generations also increased), and the pick-up of AI-related new products, we expect the gross profit margin of the company's interconnection chips to further increase month-on-month in 1Q25.
2025 Outlook: DDR5 Accelerated Penetration, PCIe Switch Opens New Growth Space Looking ahead to 25 years, IDC expects global/domestic server shipments to grow by 8.5/11.6%; At the same time, the penetration of DDR5 is accelerating, the proportion of second/third generation shipments may be further increased, the company's memory interface chip revenue is expected to maintain high growth, and the gross profit margin remains stable. In terms of new products, Intel and other client CPU platforms that support DDR5-6400 memory modules have been launched, and large-scale commercial use is expected to drive the rapid expansion of the company's CKD chips. The company's PCIe Retimer products have a high domestic market share, and are expected to benefit from the increase in AI investment such as Byte and Alibaba to achieve high growth, and has launched PCIe 6.0 Retimer to consolidate its competitive advantage.
The company's MRCD/MDB chip shipments are also expected to further increase in 25 years, and the second generation of products has been sent to samples, and the bandwidth advantage of the second generation MRDIMM is more obvious than that of traditional RDIMM/LPDDR, and the industry is expected to accelerate the volume, helping the company's MRCD/MDB revenue usher in rapid growth. In addition, with the accumulation of technologies such as SerDes IP, the company announced the expansion of PCIe Switch layout, and the future market space is broad.
Investment suggestion: the target price is 96.5 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating, and the net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 23.0/33.1/4.32 billion yuan in 25/26/27 (original value: 20.8/34.2/-100 million yuan), the company actively deploys AI-related new products to open up growth space, giving 48x 25PE (40x consensus expectation of comparable companies), and the target price is 96.5 yuan (previous value of 83.6 yuan, based on 46x 25PE), maintaining "buy".
Risk warning: market demand is declining, market competition is intensifying, and the progress of new products is less than expected.
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