Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that deep-sea science and technology was first included in the government work report, pointing to a clear and prominent science and technology, and commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, estimating that the market size of the main links of deep-sea science and technology is expected to reach 921.2 billion yuan in 2030, with a CAGR of 11.4% from 2025 to 2030, and it is expected to be a trillion-level industry if you consider auxiliary / maintenance and other links. From the perspective of commercialization progress, deepwater oil and gas > underwater drones> offshore wind power> submarine data centers = deep-sea mining, it is recommended to pay attention to the links and targets that are expected to enter the fast lane under the policy + commercialization resonance.

The main views of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Why is the deep sea lit up? -- Research Breakthrough + Policy Teague

1) Event-driven: China has made breakthroughs in deep-sea research, relying on the independent research and development of the Fighter manned submersible, China's manned deep diving has entered the forefront of the world; 2) Policy-driven: Deep-sea science and technology is the first to be included in the government work report, which has a clear and prominent scientific and technological orientation, and is ranked with commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy; 3) Stock market review: The low-altitude economic market in 2024 began with the first government work report, and the policy + industry resonance rose brightly.

The uniqueness of the deep-sea industry chain determines that the core is concentrated in the equipment manufacturing link

Industrial chain: The middle and upper reaches of the deep-sea industrial chain are equipment manufacturing, the midstream is deep-sea resource exploration and development and new infrastructure, and the downstream is product processing and operation services. The core of the industrial chain lies in equipment manufacturing: 1) the extremity of the deep-sea environment has high requirements for equipment; 2) Deep-sea activities are highly dependent on high-tech special equipment; 3) The deep-sea environment is complex, the cost of going to sea is high, and the deep-sea equipment market is characterized by high risk, customization and great challenges.

Deep-sea submersibles & robots: pioneer in exploration, with diverse application scenarios

Deep-sea submersibles and robots are mainly used for deep-sea observation operations, mainly including HOV, ROV, AUVAUG. The upstream of its industrial chain is special materials, seals, sensors, lithium batteries, etc., and 3D printing is more used in midstream manufacturing. According to QYResearch data, in 2022, the ROV share and AUV accounted for 62.83% and 37.17% of the marine robot UUV market.

Deep-sea oil and gas development equipment: offshore oil and gas is the main increment, and shallow water moves to deep water

Offshore oil and gas has become the largest source of oil and gas production increase in China and the world, and the global deepwater oil and gas fields are in the stage of rapid production in ultra-deepwater. China's South China Sea oil accounts for 30% of the total, deep-water areas account for 70%, China has formed a 3000m deep-water oil and gas development engineering capacity system in the whole sea area. FPSO has become the mainstream production method for offshore oil and gas field development.

Deep-sea mineral mining equipment: abundant strategic resources, and the commercialization of environmental protection considerations is suspended

The main target of deep-sea mining is the strategic new energy metal nickel, cobalt and manganese, with large reserves, and some companies such as TMC have quasi-commercial technical capabilities, but they are hindered by ecological and environmental considerations and international legal gaps. China's proximity to mineral areas + technology reaching the international frontier + the world's largest number of contracting contracts, commercial mining restrictions are expected to develop rapidly after the relaxation.

Offshore equipment: the global cycle is picking up, and the domestic market has reached 100 billion

The utilization rate of offshore equipment, total orders, and equipment prices have returned/exceeded the peak of ten years, and large-scale ultra-deepwater oil and gas have accelerated, with 215 global offshore equipment orders totaling US$27.2 billion in 24 years, including 21 floating development equipment of about US$17.4 billion; More than 50% of the world's production platforms are built in China, and the contract has transitioned from hull and module construction to EPC general contracting, and the domestic scale is expected to reach 190 billion yuan in 2030.

New deep-sea infrastructure: The progress of domestic commercialization of submarine data centers needs to be continuously verified, and offshore wind power is going deeper and farther, driven by policy + technology.

Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the market size of the main links of deep-sea technology is expected to reach 921.2 billion yuan in 2030, with a CAGR of 11.4% from 2025 to 2030, and it is expected to be a trillion-level industry if you consider the auxiliary / maintenance and other links.

From the perspective of commercialization progress, deepwater oil and gas > underwater drones> offshore wind power > submarine data centers = deep-sea mining, it is recommended to pay attention to the links and targets that are expected to enter the fast lane under the policy + commercialization resonance

1) Deep-sea submersibles & robots: Shenhao Technology (300853.SZ), Times Electric (688187.SH), Tianyuan Environmental Protection (301127.SZ) in the field of ROV, and China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) in the field of HOVs; 2) CNOOC &600320.SH: CNOOC & Offshore Engineering & Offshore Engineering: CNOOC (601808.SH), CIMC (000039.SZ), Zhenhua Heavy Industry () in the field of offshore equipment, Diwei (688377.SH) and Haiguo Co., Ltd. (301063.SZ) in the parts sector, CNOOC Development (600968.SH), CNOOC Engineering (600583.SH), and Bomaike (603727.SH) in the field of offshore EPC; 3) Deep-sea mining: Minmetals Resources (01208) and TMC with exploration contracts and mining equipment;

4) Deep-sea infrastructure: Hailanxin (300065.SZ) in the submarine data center link; 5) Parts & Auxiliary Equipment: Mooring Chain & Rigging Yaxing Anchor Chain (601890.SH), Juli Rigging (002342.SZ), Submarine Cable & Umbilical Cable Link Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487.SH), Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), other parts and components such as lighting system Foshan Lighting (000541.SZ), hydraulic system Shaoyang Hydraulics (301079.SZ), seals Zhongmi Holdings ( 300470.SZ)。

Risk Warning

Domestic support policies are less than expected, technological progress is less than expected, international technology trade frictions, and international environmental protection organizations have led to policies that are less than expected.