(Source: Zheshang Securities Research Institute).

Note: If there is any ambiguity in the audio, please refer to the official research report.

Highlights of this issue

【Zheshang Strategy Liao Jingchi/Wang Daji/Li Pei】A-share Strategy Weekly: The index range fluctuates in a narrow range, and the allocation is low, and do not chase high.

【Zheshang Strategy Liao Jingchi/Wang Daji/Gao Qisheng/Zhao Wenkai】Strategic Research Industry Comparison and Allocation Landing: Focus on the three main lines of independent and controllable, expanding domestic demand and dividends.

【Zheshang Computer Liu Wenshu/Tao Yunqi】Computer Industry Comments: Large model technology + agent interaction accelerates iteration, and the AI application ecology is expected to explode.

【Zheshang Small and Medium Cap Zhong Kaifeng/Song Wei】Debang Technology: The leading high-end packaging materials have restarted high growth, and new energy application materials have ushered in a profit inflection point, and the company's performance is expected to exceed expectations.

Content details

01 Key points

【Zheshang Strategy Liao Jingchi/Wang Daji/Li Pei】A-share Strategy Weekly: Jiulianyang hits the upper edge of the range, and the low allocation is not high

1. Field: strategy

2. Core viewpoint:

Under the new pattern of the big impact, the index range fluctuates in a narrow range, and the allocation of dips is not chasing highs.

1) Market Perception:

The upper edge of the gap on April 7 is still under pressure on most broad-based indices, while the lower support is gradually rising; The general pattern of "pressure above, support below, and narrow range shocks" has not changed, but the shock range has been further narrowed.

2) Change of perspective:

In terms of industry sectors, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to three major directions on the premise of considering timing: (1) large financial dividends, including some Chinese prefixes; (2) Autonomous and controllable (including military industry); (3) Domestic consumption.

3) Drivers:

In terms of allocation, based on the judgment of "a new pattern under the big shock, the index range fluctuates in a narrow range", we suggest that if there is another situation of external bearish pressure on the index, we should make decisive moves and actively increase the allocation when the index declines rapidly; At the same time, if the index rebounds to the upper edge of the April 7 gap, it should be wary of the pressure brought by the dense trading area above, and it is not advisable to win at this time.

4) Differences with the market:

The trend presents two characteristics: first, the major indices are performing strongly, and the center of gravity continues to rise; Second, when some indices tested the upper edge of the gap, they encountered pressure in the dense trading area above the gap, and the upward slope decreased. Based on the above observations, we believe that the general pattern of "pressure above, support below, and narrow range shocks" has not changed, but the shock range has further narrowed.

3. Risk Warning:

The domestic economy is not recovering as expected; There is uncertainty in global geopolitics.

Report date: April 19, 2025

Report Details:

【Zheshang Strategy Liao Jingchi/Wang Daji/Gao Qisheng/Zhao Wenkai】Strategic Special Study: Finance First and then Growth, Large Market and then Small and Medium Market

1. Field: strategy

2. Core viewpoint:

In terms of style rotation, finance will be the first to be launched in the coming week; Financials, consumption and growth are likely to all perform in the coming month; Growth is likely to be more resilient in the coming quarter. In terms of industry comparison, the financial style can be given priority to real estate (and building materials), the consumption style can be implemented to medicine, food and beverage, commerce, etc., the growth style can be landed in the military industry, electronics, etc., and the dividend style can be considered to be delivered to the delivery.

1) Market Perception:

Style Comparison and Rotation Outlook: Finance First and Growth Later, Large Market First and Small and Mid Cap First. Industry comparison and allocation landing: pay attention to the three main lines of independent and controllable, expanding domestic demand and dividends.

2) Change of perspective:

In May, the market entered a performance vacuum, and the Politburo meeting at the end of April set the tone for the follow-up economic work, and the countercyclical policy is expected to increase under the expectation of cooling external demand, and risk appetite may increase compared with April, while the weight of trading "reality" may be higher. Overall, in the coming month, it is recommended to gradually shift from defense to offense, with a balanced allocation, focusing on style tags such as finance, consumption and growth styles.

3) Drivers:

The

global economic and trade environment is increasingly turbulent, and the disclosure window period of annual reports and quarterly reports is superimposed, and the risk aversion and defensive sentiment may be relatively advantageous in the short term, which is conducive to the financial and stable market styles. Looking back at the short- and medium-term industry performance after the United States imposed five rounds of tariffs on China in 2018-2019, the direction of big finance is obviously superior. Taking into account factors such as tariff frictions, calendar effects, and market stability, we can still pay attention to the broader market value, financials, and stability style labels in the coming week.

4) Differences with the market:

Finance is preferred in the coming week; Financials, consumption and growth may all have performance opportunities in the coming month; Growth may be more resilient in the coming quarter. The financial style can be given priority to real estate (and related building materials), the consumption style can be considered to be implemented in medicine, food and beverage, commerce, etc., the growth style can be focused on the military industry, electronics, etc., and the dividend style can also be considered to be implemented in delivery.

3. Risk Warning:

the subjectivity of model design; Short backtesting time or lack of backtesting; Excess returns are unsustainable; High turnover rates are not achievable; Consensus expectation data changes lead to conclusions.

Report date: April 19, 2025

Report Details:

02 Important Comments

【Zheshang Computer Liu Wenshu/Tao Yunqi】Computer Industry Comments: "Large Model + MCP + A2A" Ecology opens up the growth space of multi-agent collaborative ecology

1. Main events:

OpenAI launched the o4-mini and full-blooded version of the o3 model, and manufacturers such as Alibaba and Tencent connected to the MCP protocol.

2. Brief comments:

The large-scale model capability continues to iterate, and large manufacturers open up the data and agent interaction ecosystem, and the implementation of AI applications is expected to accelerate.

3. Investment opportunities, catalysts and investment risks

1) Investment Opportunities:

We believe that the acceleration of the iteration of the performance of large models in all aspects, the improvement of data and execution layer protocols such as MCP and A2A, and the participation of application vendors, the construction of the AI agent application ecosystem is expected to accelerate, and we will pay attention to the investment opportunities of general large models and product-based application vendors.

Agent application: iFLYTEK, Focus Technology, Guangyun Technology, Tax Friend Co., Ltd., Dingjie Digital Intelligence, Zhuoyi Information, Color News Co., Ltd., Mai FTSE, Pan Micro Network (Rights Protection).

AI vertical applications: Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, Wondershare Technology, INTSIG, Kunlun Wanwei (rights protection), ArcSoft Technology, Runda Medical, Meitu, SenseTime-W.

2) Catalysts:

AI large model upgrade iteration, AI agent and application upgrade release.

3) Investment Risk:

the risk that AI technology iteration is less than expected; The release of AI commercial products is less than expected; risks arising from policy uncertainty; Risks posed by downstream market uncertainty.

Report date: April 17, 2025

Report Details:

【Zheshang Small and Medium-sized Cap Zhong Kaifeng/Song Wei】Debang Technology (688035) Company Comments: Integrated circuits and intelligent terminal packaging materials have grown significantly, showing growth potential

1. Main events:

The company released its 2024 annual report.

2. Brief comments:

The four-year performance was in line with expectations, and the growth in 24Q4 accelerated significantly.

3. Investment opportunities, catalysts and investment risks

1) Investment Opportunities:

(1) Integrated circuit packaging materials: DAF/CDAF film, chip-level underfill, Lid frame bonding materials and other advanced packaging materials are delivered in small batches;

(2) Intelligent terminal packaging materials: At present, new packaging materials have been certified and delivered in batches by a number of top intelligent terminal manufacturers. 

2) Catalysts:

LIPO terminals are frequently released, and the company has deployed cooling solutions such as AI data centers/robots, and the company's performance has exceeded expectations.

3) Investment Risk:

product iteration and technology development risks; The risk of long verification cycle and slow volume of new products; Consumer electronics innovation cycle risk.

Report date: April 19, 2025

Report Details:

Legal Notices and Risk Warnings

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