If key oil routes stay blocked for too long, crude price could spike to USD150/barrel for months, triggering a global recession, Martina Bozadzhieva, managing director of Macro and Investor Services at Oxford Economics, told Yicai in an exclusive interview. Supply chains are shifting toward "less efficient, more resilient, and more expensive" models, with companies doubling down on localization, diversification, and buffer stocks, she added.