(Yicai) April 20 -- China is expected to surpass the United States in operational nuclear power capacity before 2030, becoming the world’s largest, according to a forecast by the China Nuclear Energy Association, as the country accelerates reactor construction and investment.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will mark a key strategic period for nuclear energy development, with installed capacity in operation projected to reach 110 million kilowatts by 2030 and expand further to 200 million kilowatts by 2040. China already has the largest number of nuclear power units under construction globally, a position it has maintained for 19 consecutive years.

As of the end of last year, China had 59 nuclear power units in operation with a combined installed capacity of 62.5 million kilowatts, while 35 units were under construction with a total capacity of 41.9 million kilowatts, according to the CNEA’s annual report released at the Spring Nuclear Energy Sustainable Development Forum on April 17. Including approved but not yet started projects, the total number of nuclear units reaches 112, with a combined capacity of 125 million kilowatts, Yang Changli, rotating chairman of the CNEA, said at the event.

China has approved about 10 new nuclear power units annually since 2022, with investment continuing to rise. Investment in nuclear power engineering construction reached a record CNY161 billion (USD23.6 billion) last year, up CNY14.1 billion (USD2.1 billion) from the previous year, the report showed.

China’s nuclear power generation totaled 467.7 billion kilowatt-hours last year, ranking second globally for six consecutive years and accounting for about 5 percent of the country’s total electricity generation.

The country’s domestically developed third-generation nuclear technology, Hualong One, has entered large-scale deployment, with eight units already in commercial operation worldwide and 33 units approved for construction, Yang said.

In addition, the world’s first commercial onshore small modular reactor, ACP100, is expected to be completed and begin operation this year at the Changjiang Nuclear Power Plant in Hainan province. China has also made progress in nuclear fusion research, entering the combustion experimental stage and setting multiple records for fusion temperature and duration.

Looking ahead, nuclear power is expected to become a foundational energy source in China as coal-fired generation declines. However, intensifying electricity market reforms will expose the sector to stronger competition and rising economic pressures, Yang noted.

China should further improve pricing guarantee mechanisms for nuclear power, including ensuring consumption through government-authorized contracts or price difference settlement mechanisms, while establishing a low-carbon energy certificate system to better reflect nuclear power’s market value, Wang Yiren, former deputy chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority, said at the forum.

Editors: Dou Shicong, Emmi Laine