(Yicai) April 27 -- Amid intensified competition in the global auto industry, carmakers will have to sell at least three million units a year to simply survive by 2030, according to the chairman of Chinese state-owned Changan Automobile.

Companies with annual sales of three to five million vehicles can only be considered surviving, Zhu Huarong said prior to the Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, which opened on April 24. Those who sell between five and eight million units will be able to get by, while those who exceed eight million will become global leaders, he noted.

Zhu's judgment was based on his observation of the global industry, where the world's top 15 to 20 automakers account for 70 percent to 80 percent of the market, with the Matthew effect continuing to manifest.

"The annual sales of the world's top 10 carmakers must reach at least three and a half to four million units," said Zhu Jiangming, founder of Leapmotor Technology, the best-selling electric vehicle startup in China. "Companies must pursue globalization.

"There are 17 passenger car manufacturers in China, but the number will certainly decrease," Zhu noted. "The prerequisites for survival are to at least avoid losses and to achieve scale, as only with scale can an automaker have a future."

The issue of "increasing revenue without increasing profits" is becoming a common challenge faced by Chinese passenger car brands. The profit margin in China's auto industry fell to a record low of 4.1 percent last year from 4.3 percent in 2024, declining to 2.9 percent in the first two months of this year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

According to the per-vehicle price and profit data of 12 major listed carmakers, none saw a per-vehicle profit of more than CNY10,000 (USD1,465). For example, that of Changan Auto was only CNY960 (USD140) despite it posting nine-year high sales and record revenue last year, with investments in its new energy brands Deepal and Avatr weighing heavily on its overall profitability.

"Overall, the market pressure is quite significant," Gan Jiayue, chief executive officer of Geely Automobile Group, told Yicai. The high level of product homogenization and the overly short lifecycle of new cars are putting pressure on firms' profitability, he added.

In addition, rising raw material costs have intensified the profit pressure faced by automakers, noted Deng Chenghao, chairman of Deepal. "The price of onboard memory has increased not just by one or two times, but several times, while that of bulk raw materials such as plastic resins is also rising, with the pressure from material costs expected to have a significant impact on this year's performance."

Expanding into overseas markets has become more and more essential to survival, so Changan Auto will invest CNY100 billion (USD14.6 billion) in that direction over the next five years, according to its plan released at the Beijing Auto Show. While strengthening its presence in the domestic market, the company aims to promote a globally coordinated supply chain layout, targeting an overseas annual production capacity of 800,000 units by 2030.

Deepal has set a sales target of 480,000 units this year, which includes 340,000 units in China and 140,000 units overseas, Deng told Yicai, adding that the firm expects a significant global sales growth.

Chinese automakers face many challenges when expanding overseas, Gan pointed out. Competitors in foreign markets see them as rivals attempting to "capture" their markets, so their globalization essentially involves the need to "integrate" into local markets, he noted.

Geely aims to bring high-quality products to overseas markets while also establishing joint venture factories with local partners, tapping into the areas' resources and contributing to the development of the local auto industry and economic growth, Gan said.

"Chery focuses on achieving three major breakthroughs in electrification, intelligence, and integration into the global market," noted Chairman Yin Tongyue. "We hope that wherever the company goes, it can become a part of the local industrial ecosystem and contribute to the economic and social development of the area."

Chery has ranked as the top Chinese passenger car exporter for 23 straight years. It shipped nearly 150,000 units overseas last month, up 72 percent from a year earlier and setting a new monthly export record for Chinese automakers.

Editors: Tang Shihua, Martin Kadiev