(Yicai Global) March 4 -- China’s main economic indicators are expected to have risen sharply in January and February due to the country's economic recovery and the low base of comparison from last year, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai Global.

After a sharp decline at the beginning of 2020, China’s main economic gauges started to recover gradually. Total retail sales of consumer goods fell 3.9 percent last year, and the industrial added value of large industrial firms climbed 2.8 percent, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in January.

In Yicai Global’s survey, chief economists from 20 major Chinese financial institutions said consumer goods sales in the first two months of this year likely jumped 31.09 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 20.5 percent decline in the same period of 2020 amid the pandemic. The industrial added value of big industrial firms is expected to have gained 30.69 percent, versus a 13.5 percent drop a year ago. 

Investment data is expected to follow a similar upward trend, with fixed asset investment likely to have gained 38.58 percent in January and February, compared with a 24.5 percent decline in the same period last year. Real estate development investment probably climbed 27.03 percent, versus a drop of 16.3 percent a year earlier, the economists predicted.

The consumer price index will remain in negative territory in February, as prices of pork and eggs have dropped significantly, most of the economists told Yicai Global. They expect a year-on-year drop of 0.43 percent in the CPI for last month, compared with a 0.3 percent year-on-year drop in January.

But with the strong rebound in commodity prices, the economists predict that February’s industrial producer price index likely rose 1.18 percent from a year earlier. The PPI turned positive in January after a sustained period of decline.

The central bank’s monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, the economists also predicted, with the benchmark deposit rate, one-year loan prime rate and commercial bank deposit reserve ratios not expected to change this month.

The NBS is scheduled to announce the main price indexes for January and February on March 10, with other major economic data releases to follow on March 15. 

Editors: Tang Shihua, Tom Litting