(Yicai Global) Jan. 13 -- China’s gross domestic product will expand about 5.5 percent this year, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will become one of the main drivers of trade growth, the Center for Forecasting Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said in an article published via WeChat yesterday.

Primary industry growth is expected to be 3.1 percent, with the secondary and tertiary industries gaining 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, Bao Qin, a CFS official, said at a press conference yesterday.

Consumption, investment and net exports will contribute 3.9 percentage points, 0.9 point and 0.7 point to GDP growth, respectively.

Fixed asset investment is expected to expand 5 percent to 6 percent, Bao said. Infrastructure investment may pick up while manufacturing investment growth will likely decline but remain stable. Investments in innovative and high-tech industries and the service sector are set to run at higher levels, he added.

While favorable policies and cuts to taxes and fees can promote consumption, the sporadic resurgence of Covid-19 and employment pressure will constrain it. Final consumption may see nominal growth of 5.4 percent to 7 percent from last year.

In terms of imports and exports, Bao said that China faces a complex domestic and foreign economic situation, with the recovery of external demand not looking optimistic and significant downside risks to trade.

But the RCEP, which took effect on Jan. 1, is expected to become one of the main driving forces for trade growth, he pointed out. China’s trade will tally about USD6.41 trillion this year, up about 6.14 percent from 2021, assuming that the global pandemic is under control to a certain extent, the world economy slowly recovers and the domestic economy steadily expands.

The consumer price index will rise by about 2 percent in 2022, and the producer price index will increase 4.3 percent, according to Bao, with the gap between the pair narrowing from last year.

Editor: Peter Thomas