(Yicai Global) Sept. 7 -- China’s export growth slowed more than anticipated last month, mainly because of weakening overseas demand, analysts said, forecasting the slowdown to continue this month.

Exports rose 7.1 percent to USD314.9 billion in August, dropping from an 18 percent increase in July, data from the General Administration of Customs showed today. Eighteen economists polled by Yicai Global had expected a 12.4 percent gain.

Imports edged up 0.3 percent to USD235.5 billion, slowing from a 2 percentage points clip the month prior, versus the 2.5 percent the economists had forecast.

Weaker external demand and last year’s high base were the main factors behind slowing exports, Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, told Yicai Global.

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a global economic indicator compiled by S&P Global, fell for a third straight month in August to 50.3 -- a 26-month low -- down from 51.1 in July, Zheng noted, adding that the new orders index dropped further below 50.

The global manufacturing PMI recently released by the China Federation of Logistics also dropped for a third month in a row in August to 50.9, versus 51.2 in July.

Yuan depreciation will support future exports, Zheng pointed out, but the pace of export growth will still come under pressure this month, he said.

With last year’s high base, the downturn in overseas economies, and the effect of higher export commodity prices, export growth is likely to slow about 5 percent more in September, said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating.

“China’s export growth rate will decline in fluctuations, with the figure going negative in some months of the fourth quarter,” Wang noted. “This means that steady growth in the second half of the year will rely more on domestic demand.”

Editor: Futura Costaglione